Dates
All interviews were conducted face-to-face by trained lay interviewers. Each interview had two parts. All respondents completed Part I, which contained core mental disorders, while all Part I respondents who met criteria for any core mental disorder plus a probability sub-sample of approximately 25% of other Part I respondents were administered Part II. The Part II interview assessed correlates, service use, and disorders of secondary interest to the study. The assessment of substance use patterns was included in Part II. The Part II survey data were weighted to adjust for the over-sampling of people with mental disorders and for differential probabilities of selection within households, as well as to match samples to population socio-demographic distributions, making the weighted Part II samples representative of the populations from which they were selected.
Standardised interviewer-training procedures, WHO translation protocols for all study materials and quality control procedures for interviewer and data accuracy were consistently applied across all WMH countries in an effort to ensure cross-national comparability. These procedures are described in more detail elsewhere ( Alonso et al., 2002 ; Kessler et al., 2004 ; Kessler and Üstün, 2004 ). Informed consent was obtained before beginning interviews in all countries. Procedures for obtaining informed consent and protecting human subjects were approved and monitored for compliance by the Institutional Review Boards of the organizations coordinating the surveys in each country.
Mental and substance disorders were assessed with Version 3.0 of the World Health Organization (WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) ( Kessler and Üstün, 2004 ), a fully structured lay-administered interview designed to generate research diagnoses of commonly occurring DSM-IV disorders ( American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1994 ).
Participants were separately asked if they had ever used tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illicit drugs. A report of ever using a drug was followed with questions about age of first use (“How old were you the very first time you ever smoked even a puff of a cigarette, cigar, or pipe?”; “How old were you the very first time you ever drank an alcoholic beverage – including either beer, wine, a wine cooler, or hard liquor?”; How old were you the first time you used marijuana or hasish?”; “How old were you the first time you used cocaine?”; “How old were you the first time you used one or more of the drugs on page Y in your reference book such as heroin, opium, glue, LSD, peyote, or any other drug?”), age-of-onset (AOO) of first regular use, lifetime occurrence of symptoms of abuse/dependence, and AOO of abuse-dependence. Exceptions were that AOO of tobacco use, nicotine dependence and drug dependence were not assessed in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain; AOO of tobacco use and nicotine dependence were not assessed in Japan and New Zealand; nicotine dependence was not assessed in Israel and South Africa.
Different onset orders, as determined by retrospective age-of-onset reports were evaluated. Violations of the gateway progression were defined as:
For countries that did not assess age of onset of tobacco use, in order to be a violation that included use of cannabis or other illicit drugs before “both alcohol and tobacco”, respondents must have reported either never having used tobacco, with a later age of onset of alcohol use; or never having used both tobacco and alcohol prior to use of illicit drugs.
In order to examine whether a less stringent text of the gateway sequence may have produced different results, we examined use of cannabis before either alcohol or cannabis use (i.e. before the use of one of these drugs). Although violations of this sort were more common, the pattern of findings was similar (Supplementary Tables 1a , 2a , 3 ) 1 .
Cumulative prevalence of drug use and gateway violations by age 29 were estimated for each country and cohort, with standard errors derived using the Taylor series linearisation (TSL) methods implemented in SUDAAN to adjust for the effects of weighting and clustering on the precision of estimates. When p-values are reported or indicated, they are from Wald tests obtained from TSL design-based coefficient variance-covariance matrices (α = 0.05; two-tailed). Regression models were then carried out to examine the significance of age cohort associations (defined by interview age 18-29, 30-44, 45-59, and ≥60) with drug use and with each of the three gateway violations within each country.
The associations of the onset of substances earlier in the gateway sequence with the subsequent first onset of the later drug in the sequence were estimated using discrete time survival analysis with person year as the unit of analysis within country and controlling for person year and sex. Person-years were restricted to those <=29 to make cross-cohort comparisons. Discrete-time survival models pooled across countries were run to include the interaction between use of each gateway drug category and the prevalence of gateway drug use within each country. Covariates included, gender, age cohort, and country. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the interaction term are presented, to evaluate whether the strength of the association between gateway drug use and initiation of subsequent drugs in the sequence differs according to background prevalence of use within each country.
Drug use by age 29 years by age group at interview is presented in Table 2 for all 17 countries. South Africa had the lowest level of alcohol use, with 40.6% of the total sample reporting any use by age 29 years, followed by Lebanon (52.8%), Nigeria (55.6%) and Israel (55.7%). Tobacco use was relatively rare in South Africa (32.4%) and Nigeria (16.1%). Cannabis use was very low in Nigeria (2.8%), Japan (1.6%), and the People’s Republic of China (0.3%). Despite relatively low rates of alcohol and tobacco use, South Africa showed moderate prevalence of cannabis use (8.5%) relative to the remaining countries (cross-country median 9.8%). In Japan, the use of other illicit drugs by age 29 years was more prevalent than cannabis ( Table 2 ). Age cohort differences in drug use were common: most countries showed increases in prevalence of use of all drugs among younger cohorts.
Prevalence of drug use by age 29 years, according to age group at interview. Data from the World Mental Health Surveys (n = 54,068).
Age at Interview | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 | 30 to 44 | 45 to 59 | <= 60 | Total | ||||||||||||
% | SE | n | % | SE | n | % | SE | n | % | SE | n | % | SE | n | Age association χ - | |
Colombia | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 49.1 | 2.0 | 702 | 43.2 | 1.8 | 759 | 56.4 | 2.3 | 539 | 56.3 | 4.2 | 138 | 48.4 | 1.0 | 2138 | 24.0 |
Alcohol | 96.1 | 0.7 | 1375 | 93.3 | 0.7 | 1612 | 87.5 | 1.5 | 861 | 83.8 | 2.4 | 200 | 92.5 | 0.4 | 4048 | 105.8 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 96.8 | 0.8 | 1385 | 93.9 | 0.7 | 1626 | 89.9 | 1.2 | 889 | 86.7 | 2.4 | 213 | 93.6 | 0.4 | 4113 | 83.1 |
Cannabis | 14.4 | 0.8 | 206 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 144 | 11.2 | 1.7 | 83 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 8 | 10.8 | 0.5 | 441 | 45.2 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 7.2 | 0.8 | 103 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 68 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 194 | 35.9 |
Mexico | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 64.4 | 1.5 | 1326 | 58.8 | 1.7 | 1215 | 55.5 | 2.2 | 579 | 52.9 | 3.6 | 181 | 59.6 | 1.0 | 3301 | 67.0 |
Alcohol | 91.5 | 0.9 | 1884 | 82.3 | 0.9 | 1773 | 76.8 | 1.5 | 826 | 73.8 | 2.9 | 248 | 83.9 | 0.5 | 4731 | 247.0 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 92.1 | 0.8 | 1897 | 85.6 | 0.9 | 1855 | 79.9 | 1.4 | 864 | 78.6 | 2.5 | 269 | 86.2 | 0.5 | 4885 | 186.7 |
Cannabis | 11.5 | 1.3 | 236 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 148 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 47 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 438 | 58.1 |
Other Illicit Drugs , | 9.6 | 1.2 | 197 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 61 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 269 | 79.4 |
United States | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 74.4 | 2.5 | 1020 | 73.3 | 1.8 | 1399 | 75.1 | 1.7 | 1206 | 71.2 | 2.3 | 702 | 73.5 | 1.3 | 4327 | 17.6 |
Alcohol | 96.2 | 0.9 | 1318 | 93.4 | 0.9 | 1729 | 92.0 | 1.2 | 1425 | 81.7 | 2.0 | 800 | 91.0 | 0.9 | 5272 | 151.8 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 96.0 | 1.0 | 1316 | 94.8 | 0.9 | 1754 | 94.7 | 1.0 | 1463 | 87.0 | 1.7 | 853 | 93.3 | 0.8 | 5386 | 56.2 |
Cannabis | 57.6 | 2.0 | 789 | 57.6 | 1.9 | 1165 | 40.7 | 1.5 | 711 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 30 | 40.9 | 1.0 | 2695 | 341.8 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 27.3 | 1.7 | 374 | 29.3 | 1.6 | 606 | 15.7 | 1.1 | 269 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 9 | 18.7 | 0.7 | 1258 | 170.9 |
Belgium | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 88.4 | 5.2 | 121 | 93.9 | 1.5 | 319 | 96.0 | 1.1 | 278 | 82.0 | 4.6 | 220 | 90.4 | 1.8 | 938 | 18.8 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 88.4 | 5.2 | 121 | 93.9 | 1.5 | 319 | 96.0 | 1.1 | 278 | 82.0 | 4.6 | 220 | 90.4 | 1.8 | 938 | 18.8 |
Cannabis | 31.0 | 6.6 | 42 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 44 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 105 | 105.7 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 10.2 | 3.5 | 14 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 16 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 38 | 46.8 |
France | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 94.5 | 2.0 | 218 | 94.2 | 1.8 | 470 | 93.2 | 1.8 | 363 | 81.3 | 3.4 | 274 | 90.8 | 1.2 | 1325 | 114.7 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 94.5 | 2.0 | 218 | 94.2 | 1.8 | 470 | 93.2 | 1.8 | 363 | 81.3 | 3.4 | 274 | 90.8 | 1.2 | 1325 | 114.7 |
Cannabis | 52.9 | 4.8 | 122 | 19.5 | 2.3 | 133 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 30 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 17.9 | 1.6 | 286 | 186.4 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 11.0 | 2.2 | 25 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 35 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 73 | 32.0 |
Germany | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 98.1 | 0.9 | 182 | 96.7 | 1.1 | 420 | 94.5 | 1.3 | 326 | 91.6 | 2.0 | 322 | 94.9 | 0.9 | 1250 | 79.6 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 98.1 | 0.9 | 182 | 96.7 | 1.1 | 420 | 94.5 | 1.3 | 326 | 91.6 | 2.0 | 322 | 94.9 | 0.9 | 1250 | 79.6 |
Cannabis | 45.6 | 4.7 | 84 | 21.2 | 2.3 | 108 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 37 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 16.8 | 1.6 | 235 | 92.8 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 14.6 | 3.2 | 27 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 22 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 59 | 53.2 |
Italy | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 79.6 | 3.8 | 262 | 72.0 | 2.9 | 383 | 75.8 | 2.1 | 358 | 64.4 | 2.8 | 299 | 72.3 | 1.8 | 1302 | 38.9 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 79.6 | 3.8 | 262 | 72.0 | 2.9 | 383 | 75.8 | 2.1 | 358 | 64.4 | 2.8 | 299 | 72.3 | 1.8 | 1302 | 38.9 |
Cannabis | 17.4 | 3.2 | 57 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 57 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 133 | 94.6 |
Other Illicit Drugs , | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 11 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 21 | 4.3 |
Netherlands | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 92.6 | 4.5 | 122 | 93.6 | 1.1 | 354 | 95.6 | 1.3 | 317 | 84.0 | 3.2 | 210 | 92.0 | 1.3 | 1003 | 42.1 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 92.6 | 4.5 | 122 | 93.6 | 1.1 | 354 | 95.6 | 1.3 | 317 | 84.0 | 3.2 | 210 | 92.0 | 1.3 | 1003 | 42.1 |
Cannabis | 38.9 | 8.7 | 51 | 27.3 | 3.3 | 114 | 13.0 | 2.6 | 51 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 18.4 | 1.1 | 217 | 72.8 |
Other Illicit Drugs , | 15.5 | 5.5 | 20 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 24 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 57 | 19.9 |
Spain | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 93.4 | 1.8 | 311 | 91.0 | 1.5 | 558 | 87.1 | 2.0 | 373 | 71.5 | 2.7 | 505 | 85.7 | 1.1 | 1747 | 70.6 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 93.4 | 1.8 | 311 | 91.0 | 1.5 | 558 | 87.1 | 2.0 | 373 | 71.5 | 2.7 | 505 | 85.7 | 1.1 | 1747 | 70.6 |
Cannabis | 38.0 | 4.7 | 126 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 150 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 15.7 | 1.3 | 306 | 123.5 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 11.5 | 2.7 | 38 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 55 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 98 | 53.5 |
Ukraine | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 81.1 | 2.9 | 242 | 69.9 | 3.3 | 269 | 58.6 | 3.3 | 215 | 32.4 | 2.7 | 183 | 59.5 | 1.8 | 909 | 180.4 |
Alcohol | 99.7 | 0.3 | 298 | 98.6 | 0.6 | 406 | 97.2 | 1.0 | 384 | 84.5 | 2.1 | 523 | 94.7 | 0.7 | 1611 | 273.1 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 99.4 | 0.6 | 297 | 98.7 | 0.6 | 407 | 97.6 | 1.1 | 388 | 84.6 | 2.1 | 524 | 94.8 | 0.7 | 1616 | 233.5 |
Cannabis | 15.2 | 2.8 | 45 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 32 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 86 | 46.7 |
Other Illicit Drugs , | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 16 | 27.8 |
Israel , | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 49.7 | 0.6 | 537 | 46.2 | 1.4 | 672 | 49.2 | 1.4 | 628 | 36.8 | 1.4 | 408 | 46.0 | 0.3 | 2245 | 84.0 |
Alcohol | 67.3 | 0.6 | 728 | 57.2 | 1.3 | 842 | 52.4 | 1.4 | 678 | 43.3 | 1.5 | 479 | 55.7 | 0.3 | 2727 | 273.3 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 74.9 | 0.6 | 810 | 69.2 | 1.3 | 1003 | 68.3 | 1.3 | 870 | 57.3 | 1.4 | 634 | 68.0 | 0.3 | 3317 | 182.4 |
Cannabis | 24.3 | 0.4 | 262 | 13.3 | 0.9 | 198 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 79 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 11 | 11.0 | 0.2 | 550 | 241.0 |
Other Illicit Drugs , | 4.4 | 0.3 | 47 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 36 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 93 | 67.9 |
Lebanon | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 75.3 | 6.4 | 176 | 65.4 | 4.0 | 259 | 67.0 | 4.7 | 167 | 48.9 | 5.4 | 97 | 64.1 | 2.5 | 699 | 12.7 |
Alcohol | 52.8 | 5.4 | 124 | 51.9 | 4.1 | 191 | 60.8 | 4.1 | 133 | 39.4 | 6.2 | 82 | 52.8 | 3.0 | 530 | 17.4 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 80.8 | 4.7 | 189 | 76.2 | 3.3 | 294 | 82.8 | 3.3 | 194 | 56.9 | 5.7 | 116 | 75.4 | 2.2 | 793 | 22.7 |
Cannabis | 8.2 | 2.7 | 19 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 15 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 10 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 48 | 24.0 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 5 | |
Nigeria | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 9.0 | 1.9 | 62 | 18.1 | 1.8 | 142 | 20.6 | 2.1 | 80 | 25.2 | 2.6 | 114 | 16.1 | 1.1 | 398 | 16.6 |
Alcohol | 62.1 | 3.0 | 432 | 52.3 | 2.6 | 387 | 50.8 | 3.6 | 182 | 52.6 | 3.4 | 217 | 55.6 | 1.7 | 1218 | 23.4 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 63.1 | 3.2 | 439 | 55.9 | 2.5 | 406 | 53.9 | 3.4 | 195 | 60.3 | 3.4 | 252 | 58.5 | 1.8 | 1292 | 15.6 |
Cannabis | 3.1 | 1.4 | 21 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 36 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 11 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 71 | 5.0 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 8 | |
South Africa | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 33.2 | 1.6 | 532 | 32.0 | 1.7 | 426 | 31.2 | 2.1 | 253 | 31.8 | 3.1 | 112 | 32.4 | 1.0 | 1323 | 17.4 |
Alcohol | 45.5 | 2.1 | 729 | 41.1 | 1.6 | 550 | 34.5 | 2.0 | 261 | 31.1 | 2.8 | 109 | 40.6 | 1.2 | 1649 | 80.1 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 52.0 | 2.1 | 833 | 48.6 | 1.9 | 671 | 44.4 | 1.9 | 353 | 43.4 | 3.0 | 160 | 48.8 | 1.1 | 2017 | 55.3 |
Cannabis | 12.7 | 1.2 | 203 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 88 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 34 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 11 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 336 | 66.7 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 3.0 | 0.7 | 48 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 22 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 74 | 11.7 |
People’s Republic of China | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | 49.3 | 4.2 | 124 | 58.3 | 3.0 | 340 | 48.1 | 3.8 | 246 | 38.4 | 4.2 | 105 | 51.3 | 2.1 | 815 | 26.0 |
Alcohol | 78.7 | 4.4 | 199 | 64.3 | 2.5 | 384 | 61.0 | 3.3 | 308 | 35.2 | 4.5 | 91 | 62.0 | 1.7 | 982 | 67.2 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 84.0 | 3.6 | 212 | 75.2 | 2.9 | 451 | 68.2 | 3.2 | 343 | 53.1 | 4.8 | 141 | 72.3 | 1.9 | 1147 | 53.7 |
Cannabis | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 7 | |
Other Illicit Drugs | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | |
Japan | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 97.2 | 1.9 | 91 | 95.4 | 1.9 | 177 | 91.8 | 2.8 | 269 | 67.6 | 3.7 | 216 | 85.3 | 1.8 | 753 | 41.4 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 97.2 | 1.9 | 91 | 95.4 | 1.9 | 177 | 91.8 | 2.8 | 269 | 67.6 | 3.7 | 216 | 85.3 | 1.8 | 753 | 41.4 |
Cannabis | 4.5 | 2.6 | 4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 11 | 8.1 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 4.8 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 16 | 3.6 |
New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||
Tobacco | ||||||||||||||||
Alcohol | 95.4 | 0.7 | 2241 | 95.1 | 0.4 | 3951 | 95.3 | 0.5 | 2931 | 89.1 | 0.8 | 2597 | 94.1 | 0.3 | 11720 | 278.2 |
Tobacco or Alcohol | 95.4 | 0.7 | 2241 | 95.1 | 0.4 | 3951 | 95.3 | 0.5 | 2931 | 89.1 | 0.8 | 2597 | 94.1 | 0.3 | 11720 | 278.2 |
Cannabis | 63.0 | 1.4 | 1480 | 54.8 | 1.0 | 2361 | 32.9 | 1.0 | 1002 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 55 | 40.1 | 0.7 | 4898 | 1028.1 |
Other Illicit Drugs | 23.6 | 1.6 | 554 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 617 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 245 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 17 | 11.3 | 0.5 | 1433 | 352.6 |
Chi square tests examined associations between the prevalence of drug use by age 29 and age at the time of interview
With few exceptions, substances earlier in the “gateway” sequence predicted drug use later in the sequence ( Table 3 ). However, the strength of these associations differed across countries. For example, cannabis use was less strongly associated with later illicit drug use (cocaine and other illicit drugs) among young adults (18-29yrs) in the Netherlands than it was in Belgium, Spain and the United States.
Association between the initiation of a drug and the later use of other drugs by 29 years, according to country and age cohort
Age at Interview | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 | 30 to 44 | 45 to 59 | >= 60 | Total | |||||||
OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | Age association χ | |
Colombia | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 34.8 | (12.7-95.3) | 25.0 | (7.6-82.3) | 20.6 | (4.1-104.7) | 29.0 | (14.2-59.1) | 113.2 | ||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 12.3 | (4.3-35.6) | 63.9 | (15.9-256.5) | 24.7 | (10.9-56.0) | 20.9 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 56.5 | (20.1-158.7) | 86.6 | (20.9-359.6) | 34.6 | (6.9-173.7) | 38.5 | (0.3-4652.6) | 64.3 | (30.0-138.0) | 2.2 |
Mexico | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 31.1 | (10.0-97.2) | 91.8 | (36.4-231.9) | 66.3 | (28.7-152.8) | 187.1 | ||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 26.5 | (7.0-100.6) | 25.7 | (7.6-86.4) | 38.1 | (14.0-104.0) | 85.0 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 32.6 | (16.2-65.6) | 42.7 | (14.1-129.6) | 40.9 | (21.7-77.3) | 467.7 | ||||
United States | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 63.2 | (28.4-140.4) | 58.0 | (28.6-117.8) | 48.8 | (30.0-79.3) | 30.5 | (4.0-233.0) | 62.0 | (42.0-91.6) | 2.4 |
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 34.8 | (18.7-65.0) | 58.0 | (29.4-114.4) | 25.9 | (11.3-59.4) | 45.1 | (30.8-66.0) | 21.0 | ||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 107.1 | (57.9-198.1) | 80.5 | (42.1-153.9) | 169.1 | (65.2-438.4) | 253.0 | (29.3- 2187.3) | 137.1 | (94.8-198.3) | 5.0 |
Belgium | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 19.3 | (4.3-86.6) | 66.8 | (9.5-470.3) | 53.1 | (18.5-152.2) | 818.2 | ||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 14.7 | (0.9-236.7) | 48.9 | (8.2-293.1) | |||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 1542.6 | (52.1-45714.2) | 357.1 | (23.2-5488.0) | 96.0 | (10.5-873.8) | 1.0 | (1.0-1.0) | 871.9 | (182.0-4177.5) | 0.7 |
France | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 46.8 | (8.2-266.2) | 181.8 | (61.6-537.2) | 83.7 | (9.4-741.7) | 126.9 | (31.6-509.5) | 1.2 | ||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 77.3 | (15.1-396.2) | 29.9 | (3.6-248.6) | 2.7 | (1.1-6.1) | 36.2 | (10.6-123.4) | 53.4 | ||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 58.1 | (4.3-776.6) | 87.2 | (23.5-323.5) | 80.3 | (25.8-250.5) | 167.8 | ||||
Germany | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 108.1 | (20.5-569.8) | 65.9 | (19.4-223.7) | 23.6 | (2.4-229.8) | 115.9 | (36.4-369.6) | 16.6 | ||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 215.3 | (18.5-2502.3) | 6.1 | (2.5-15.0) | 26.6 | ||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 416.2 | (22.2-7817.4) | 35.7 | (4.2-302.6) | 174.7 | (6.4-4743.4) | 294.0 | (39.4-2195.6) | 40.9 | ||
Italy | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 22.3 | (5.5-89.8) | 1.6 | (0.4-7.5) | 34.9 | (13.9-87.9) | 2033.7 | ||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 25.9 | (2.5-270.1) | 0.4 | (0.0-5.3) | 11.5 | (0.7-188.1) | 231.4 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 158.3 | (4.9-5096.6) | 325.2 | (3.6-29595.5) | 729.8 | (235.8- 2258.4) | 268.6 | (43.3-1664.2) | 3.7 | ||
Netherlands | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 22.4 | (1.5-337.6) | 469.4 | (48.2-4574.6) | 511.6 | (82.4-3175.2) | 156.9 | (29.6-830.2) | 3.5 | ||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 7.4 | (1.8-30.4) | 1805.9 | (174.9-18642.3) | 2015.4 | (24.9-1.6E5) | 62.5 | (9.6-406.5) | 139.8 | ||
Spain | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 212.3 | (60.5-745.2) | 113.9 | (37.8-342.7) | 224.8 | (101.3-498.7) | 966.2 | ||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 77.7 | (24.2-249.0) | 20.3 | (6.0-69.3) | 47.5 | (19.9-113.5) | 84.6 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 160.1 | (36.8-695.9) | 572.7 | (136.9-2394.9) | 626.0 | (221.8-1766.6) | 32.6 | ||||
Ukraine | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 36.4 | (3.0-441.4) | 150.6 | (16.8-1351.1) | |||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 79.4 | (14.8-425.9) | 73.1 | (3.1-1746.5) | 179.7 | (37.8-855.5) | 112.1 | ||||
Israel , | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 182.5 | (55.9-595.8) | 47.9 | (22.1-103.9) | 60.9 | (16.7-222.6) | 14.6 | (2.7-79.4) | 97.6 | (57.4-166.0) | 10.2 |
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 3650.6 | (209.0-63756.4) | 258.5 | (57.0-1172.4) | 1479.7 | (388.2-5640.3) | 861.0 | ||||
Lebanon | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Nigeria | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 15.5 | (3.0-80.5) | |||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 0.9 | (0.1-7.6) | 0.7 | (0.0-20.2) | 1.7 | (0.3-11.3) | 24.7 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 8.9 | (0.5-163.0) | 3.5 | (0.2-64.4) | 22.2 | (2.2-226.6) | 81.3 | ||||
South Africa | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 60.6 | (25.5-144.3) | 26.4 | (8.0-87.1) | 37.5 | (2.5-554.1) | 11.4 | (0.8-164.5) | 46.4 | (25.2-85.6) | 5.5 |
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 17.4 | (5.5-54.7) | 3.5 | (0.3-40.4) | 10.9 | (3.4-34.7) | 58.7 | ||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 39.0 | (12.0-127.2) | 27.3 | (2.7-280.3) | 34.1 | (11.0-106.2) | 110.9 | ||||
People’s Republic of China | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | |||||||||||
Japan | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 3.2 | (0.1-112.1) | |||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 0.2 | (0.0-10.7) | 0.1 | (0.0-3.2) | 0.0 | (0.0-0.6) | 0.2 | (0.0-2.5) | 15.3 | ||
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 67.5 | (0.7-6974.1) | 593.1 | (19.7-17884.6) | 455.4 | (37.5-5522.9) | 60.9 | ||||
New Zealand | |||||||||||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Cannabis use | 29.5 | (22.4-38.9) | 48.8 | (37.1-64.3) | 48.0 | (29.4-78.4) | 57.9 | (47.2-71.0) | 3.0 | ||
Tobacco or Alcohol use and later Other illicit drug use | 110.8 | (53.2-230.7) | 29.6 | (18.1-48.6) | 129.7 | (40.1-419.5) | 2.2 | (0.6-8.0) | 66.6 | (46.2-96.2) | 35.5 |
Cannabis use and later Other illicit drug use | 117.0 | (56.8-241.1) | 44.2 | (28.0-69.9) | 315.7 | (118.6-840.8) | 20.3 | (4.6-88.6) | 118.0 | (83.3-167.2) | 32.0 |
Results are based on discrete time survival models with person-year as the unit of analyses. Person-year and sex are used as a control.
Discrete-time survival models pooled across countries revealed a significant interaction between the initiation of alcohol/tobacco and prevalence of alcohol/tobacco use predicting the subsequent initiation of other illicit drugs (OR=32.7, CI 8.3-129.0), suggesting that alcohol/tobacco initiation was associated more strongly with the subsequent onset of other illicit drug use in countries/cohorts with higher rates of alcohol/tobacco use. Conversely, cannabis initiation was more strongly associated with the subsequent onset of other illicit drug use in countries/cohorts with lower rates of cannabis use (OR=0.3, CI 0.2-0.6). There was no significant interaction effect of the onset of alcohol/tobacco and the prevalence of alcohol/tobacco use in a country upon later cannabis initiation.
Estimated prevalence of violations to the gateway sequence among drug users in each of the 17 countries is presented in Table 4 (and Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 ). Cannabis users in South Africa, a country with the lowest rates of both alcohol and tobacco use, showed the highest rate of violating the typical gateway sequence, with 16.3% never using both alcohol and tobacco as of the age of first cannabis use. This rate was one and one third to more than 10 times higher than that seen among cannabis users in countries where alcohol and/or tobacco use was prevalent (Supplementary Table 1 , 1a ). Among other illicit drug users, Japan had the highest rate of violating the gateway sequence, with 52.5% failing to use both alcohol and tobacco as of the onset of other illicit drug use (Supplementary Table 2 , 2a ). Nigeria had the second highest rate, with 51.8% failing to have used both alcohol and tobacco as of the onset of other illicit drug use. In comparison, within countries where rates of alcohol and/or tobacco were highest, the use of other illicit drugs before both alcohol and tobacco was rare (Germany 0.6%, New Zealand 0.2% and Ukraine 0.0%; Supplementary Table 2 , 2a ).
Percent of those using other illicit drugs 4 by age 29 years who had NOT already used cannabis before beginning other illicit drug 4 use, by country and age at interview
Age at interview | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 | Total | Age association χ | |||||
% | SE | n | % | SE | n | ||
Americas | |||||||
Colombia | 42.2 | 4.9 | 27 | 33.4 | 4.8 | 52 | 15.6 |
Mexico , | 58.3 | 9.6 | 77 | 48.4 | 6.4 | 106 | 63.9 |
United States | 12.6 | 2.2 | 45 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 126 | 17.3 |
Europe | |||||||
Belgium | 8.7 | 6.6 | 1 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 9 | |
France | 21.7 | 10.0 | 6 | 33.5 | 6.1 | 23 | 4.9 |
Germany | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2 | 17.4 | 7.4 | 9 | |
Italy | 27.0 | 20.8 | 1 | 21.8 | 10.5 | 6 | |
Netherlands , | 40.7 | 19.1 | 10 | 20.7 | 9.6 | 15 | 59.8 |
Spain , | 12.3 | 4.2 | 6 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 13 | 7.0 |
Ukraine | 32.1 | 8.3 | 5 | 34.5 | 11.0 | 8 | |
Middle East and Africa | |||||||
Israel , | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 5 | |
Lebanon | 0 | 0 | |||||
Nigeria | 93.1 | 2.7 | 3 | 77.8 | 17.4 | 7 | |
South Africa | 51.1 | 10.2 | 16 | 59.2 | 9.7 | 33 | 7.8 |
Asia | |||||||
People’s Republic of China | 1 | 2 | |||||
Japan | 77.3 | 52.4 | 2 | 83.2 | 10.9 | 13 | 2.0 |
Oceania | |||||||
New Zealand | 7.0 | 1.7 | 30 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 164 | 28.6 |
Cannabis was rarely used before other illicit drugs by most other illicit substance users in countries where cannabis use was rare (Japan 83.2%, Nigeria 77.8%, Table 4 ). In countries where rates of cannabis use were highest, violations to the gateway sequence were uncommon (U.S. 11.4%, New Zealand, 12.7%).
Further analyses were conducted to consider whether violations to the “gateway” sequence of initiation predicted the later onset of dependence among users of each drug type ( Table 5 , Supplementary Table 3 ). Discrete-time survival models pooled across all countries (controlling for country in models) revealed that violations to the “gateway” sequence of initiation largely did not predict the onset of any drug dependence in a given year. Rather, it was the number of drugs used, and an earlier onset of exposure to drugs overall , that predicted transition to dependence ( Table 5 , Supplementary Table 3a ). Early onset mental disorders (both internalising and externalising) were also important predictors of the development of dependence.
Multivariable predictors of onset of dependence by drug type. Pooled analyses from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys
Alcohol dependence among alcohol users | Tobacco dependence among tobacco users | Drug dependence among cannabis users | Drug dependence among cocaine users | Drug dependence among other illicit drug# users | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | |
Female | 0.4 | ( 0.3 - 0.5 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.9 - 1.1 ) | 0.7 | ( 0.5 - 0.8 ) | 0.9 | ( 0.6 - 1.3 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.6 - 1.0 ) |
Age at interview | ||||||||||
18-29 | 2.0 | ( 1.5 - 2.7 ) | 2.2 | ( 1.8 - 2.6 ) | 1.2 | ( 0.4 - 4.0 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.1 - 5.2 ) | 1.2 | ( 0.2 - 6.6 ) |
30-44 | 1.2 | ( 0.9 - 1.6 ) | 1.1 | ( 0.9 - 1.3 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.3 - 3.3 ) | 0.7 | ( 0.1 - 4.7 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.2 - 5.8 ) |
45-59 | 1.4 | ( 1.0 - 1.8 ) | 1.1 | ( 1.0 - 1.4 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.2 - 2.9 ) | 0.6 | ( 0.1 - 4.2 ) | 0.9 | ( 0.1 - 5.0 ) |
60+ | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
No. internalising disorders by 15 yrs | 1.7 | ( 1.6 - 1.8 ) | 1.3 | ( 1.2 - 1.3 ) | 1.6 | ( 1.4 - 1.7 ) | 1.5 | ( 1.3 - 1.7 ) | 1.5 | ( 1.3 - 1.6 ) |
No. externalising disorder by 15 yrs | 1.7 | ( 1.5 - 1.9 ) | 1.2 | ( 1.1 - 1.4 ) | 1.4 | ( 1.2 - 1.7 ) | 1.4 | ( 1.1 - 1.7 ) | 1.4 | ( 1.2 - 1.7 ) |
Age of onset of use | 0.5 | ( 0.4 - 0.7 ) | 0.7 | ( 0.6 - 0.8 ) | 0.2 | ( 0.2 - 0.3 ) | 0.5 | ( 0.3 - 0.7 ) | 0.3 | ( 0.2 - 0.4 ) |
Years since first onset of use | 0.9 | ( 0.9 - 0.9 ) | 1.0 | ( 1.0 - 1.0 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.8 - 0.8 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.7 - 0.8 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.7 - 0.8 ) |
Tobacco use | 2.0 | ( 1.5 - 2.5 ) | -- | -- | 1.7 | ( 1.0 - 2.7 ) | 1.5 | ( 0.8 - 2.8 ) | 2.0 | ( 1.1 - 3.7 ) |
Alcohol use | -- | -- | 2.4 | ( 2.0 - 3.0 ) | 1.6 | ( 0.8 - 3.1 ) | 0.5 | ( 0.1 - 2.0 ) | 1.7 | ( 0.7 - 4.2 ) |
Number of illicit drugs used | ||||||||||
None | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
1 | 3.0 | ( 2.5 - 3.5 ) | 1.8 | ( 1.5 - 2.0 ) | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
2 | 5.4 | ( 4.3 - 6.9 ) | 2.3 | ( 2.0 - 2.8 ) | 6.1 | ( 4.5 - 8.3 ) | 1.4 | ( 0.5 - 4.1 ) | 3.4 | ( 1.4 - 8.2 ) |
3 | 6.3 | ( 4.7 - 8.4 ) | 2.9 | ( 2.4 - 3.6 ) | 15.4 | ( 11.1 - 21.5 ) | 2.1 | ( 0.8 - 6.0 ) | 7.8 | ( 3.1 - 19.9 ) |
4 | 7.7 | ( 5.3 - 11.2 ) | 3.1 | ( 2.3 - 4.2 ) | 35.7 | ( 24.6 - 51.8 ) | 5.6 | ( 2.0 - 15.7 ) | 18.9 | ( 7.2 - 49.7 ) |
“Gateway violation”: | ||||||||||
Cannabis use before tobacco AND alcohol | 0.6 | ( 0.3 - 1.0 ) | 1.1 | ( 0.7 - 1.6 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.4 - 1.7 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.4 - 2.4 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.5 - 2.1 ) |
Other illicit drug use before tobacco AND alcohol | 0.7 | ( 0.3 - 1.4 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.5 - 1.9 ) | 0.8 | ( 0.3 - 2.3 ) | 0.5 | ( 0.1 - 1.8 ) | 1.0 | ( 0.3 - 3.2 ) |
Other illicit drug use before cannabis | 1.6 | ( 1.1 - 2.3 ) | 0.9 | ( 0.7 - 1.2 ) | 0.7 | ( 0.4 - 1.1 ) | 1.3 | ( 0.6 - 2.6 ) | 1.2 | ( 0.7 - 2.1 ) |
Results are based on multivariable discrete time survival analyses with countries as a control.
“Onset of dependence” refers to onset of the full dependence syndrome.
Odds ratios = 0.0 indicates no one having the outcome and predictor of interest.
The present paper examined the extent and ordering of licit and illicit drug use across 17 disparate countries worldwide. This comparison, using surveys conducted with representative samples of the general population in these countries, and assessment involving comparable instruments, allowed for the first assessment of the extent to which initiation of drug use follows a consistent pattern across countries. Previous studies, concentrated in high income countries with relatively high levels of cannabis use, have documented: a common temporal ordering of drug initiation; an increased risk of initiating use of a drug later in the sequence once having initiated an earlier one; and the persistence of the association following controlling for possibly confounding factors ( Kandel et al., 2006 ).
The present study supported the existence of other factors influencing the ordering and progression of drug use because 1) other illicit drug use was more prevalent than cannabis use in some countries, e.g. Japan; 2) the association between initiation of “gateway” drugs (i.e. alcohol/tobacco and cannabis), and subsequent other illicit drug use differed across countries, in some instances according to background prevalence of use of these gateway drugs; and 3) cross-country differences in drug use prevalence corresponded to differences in the prevalence of gateway violations.
Higher levels of other illicit drug use compared to cannabis use were documented in Japan, where exposure to cannabis and tobacco/alcohol was less common. In this case, a lack of exposure and/or access to substances earlier in the normative sequence did not correspond to reductions in overall levels of other illicit drug use. This finding is contrary to the assumption that initiation reflects a universally ordered sequence in which rates of drug use later in the sequence must necessarily be lower than those earlier in the sequence ( Kandel, 2002 ). This has not previously been reported as research has been traditionally conducted in countries where use of tobacco, alcohol and cannabis is relatively common.
As expected by a model in which environmental factors such as access and/or attitudes toward use of a drug play some role in the order of substance initiation, gateway substance use was differentially associated with the subsequent onset of other illicit drug use in countries/cohorts based on background prevalence of gateway substance use (i.e. alcohol/tobacco more strongly associated with the subsequent onset of other illicit drug use in countries/cohorts with higher rates of alcohol/tobacco use and cannabis initiation more strongly associated with the subsequent onset of other illicit drug use in countries/cohorts with lower rates of cannabis use). Thus, while previous studies have consistently documented that the use of an earlier substance in the gateway sequence predicts progression to use of later substances ( Grau et al., 2007 ; Kandel et al., 1986 ; van Ours, 2003 ; Yamaguchi and Kandel, 1984 ), the present analyses conducted across diverse countries and cohorts showed that the strength of associations between substance use progression may be driven by background prevalence rather than being wholly explained by causal mechanisms.
Further, differences in patterns of gateway violations seen across countries in the WMHS provided evidence in support of the likely influence of access and/or attitudes toward substance use in shaping order of initiation. The most common gateway violation was that of other illicit drug use before cannabis. Higher levels of other illicit drug use before cannabis were related to lower levels of cannabis use in these countries (Japan and Nigeria). Similarly, first use of other illicit drugs before alcohol and tobacco was found to be most prevalent in Japan and Nigeria, countries with relatively low rates of alcohol and tobacco use compared to other WMHS countries ( Degenhardt et al., 2008 ). In contrast, use of cannabis before alcohol and tobacco was extremely rare in countries with some of the highest rates of cannabis use, such as the US and New Zealand. Cannabis users in the US were also much more likely to progress to other illicit drug use than those in the Netherlands. Taken together, cross-country differences in drug use prevalence corresponded remarkably well with differences in the prevalence of gateway violations.
What are the implications of these findings for our understanding of the relationship between the initiation of drug use and potential adverse drug-related outcomes later in life? First, consistent with other discussions of early onset drug use ( Iacono et al., 2008 ) it may be more useful to discuss early onset drug use (regardless of the type of drug used) rather than focusing on any particular type of drug since: the order of onset is clearly not the same for all users; the order varies to some extent across countries and across cohorts born in different periods; and since changes in the order of onset do not seem to affect risk for later dependence. Rather, consistent with a number of lines of observational evidence, many involving prospective study designs (see Iacono et al., 2008 ), the risk for later development of dependence upon a drug may be more affected by the extent of prior use of any drug and the age of onset at which that use began. This was lent support in this study through the finding that the number of early onset mental disorders (prior to age 15 years) was an important moderator of risk for developing dependence. The finding that adolescents with externalising and internalising disorders were at elevated risk of developing drug dependence is consistent with prospective cohort studies, which have found that early onset drug use and mental health problems are risk factors for later dependent drug use ( Toumbourou et al., 2007 ), and that comorbid mental health problems escalate risk of developing dependence once drug use begins.
It also suggests that, rather than focusing on specific patterns of initiation, or on the use of particular drugs in order to prevent transitions to other specific drug use or dependence, prevention efforts are probably better targeted at all types of drug use, particularly among young people who are already dealing with other challenges or risk behaviours, since it may be this group that is most at risk of developing problems later on.
As with all cross-sectional survey research (it needs to be noted that the WMHS surveys were not explicitly designed to answer the current research question), there are several limitations that should be considered. First, this study found cohort differences in substance use within various countries as well as cohort differences in the order of onset of use . Although this may reflect actual cohort differences, they may also reflect response biases. Retrospective reporting of age of first substance use is subject to error, given that respondents are being asked about events that, for older persons, may have occurred decades ago. Longitudinal studies have found that estimates of the age of first use do tend to increase upon repeat assessment (i.e. as people age) ( Engels et al., 1997 ; Henry et al., 1994 ; Labouvie et al., 1997 ), but not that the order of reporting of initiation changes. Further, background prevalence rates used here do not necessarily map to actual differences in consumer demand, supply and/or attitudes toward drug use.
There might be differential social stigma and legal practices in each country affecting self-reported drug use. Attempts were made to ensure truthful, honest answers were provided by participants in these surveys in four major ways. First, pilot testing in each country was carried out to determine the best way to describe study purposes and auspices in order to maximize willingness to respond honestly and accurately. Second, in countries that do not have a tradition of public opinion research, and where the notions of anonymity and confidentiality are unfamiliar, we contacted community leaders in sample sites to explain the study, obtain formal endorsement, and have the leaders announce the study to community members and encourage participation. The announcements were most typically made by religious leaders as part of their weekly sermons, although there are other cases, such as the formal community leaders in each neighbourhood in Beijing and Shanghai, where secular community leaders who were given presents by the study organizers made formal announcements and encouraged members of their neighbourhood to participate in the survey. Third, interviewers were centrally trained in the use of non-directive probing, a method designed to encourage thoughtful honest responding. Finally, especially sensitive questions were asked in a self-report format rather than an interviewer-report format, although this could be done only for respondents who could read. These methods were doubtlessly not completely effective in removing cross-national differences in willingness to report, though, so it is important to recognise the possible existence of remaining differences of this sort in interpreting cross-national differences in results.
It needs to be noted that the comparisons used in this paper were very conservative for several reasons. The first reason reflects the use of “country” as the unit of comparison. Different countries are comprised of differing ethnic, religious and other social groupings, which are highly likely to affect the prevalence of drug use. We were not able to directly control for these groupings in a consistent way across countries. Future research might examine whether some of the differences in the levels of use and possibly in the order of initiation might be related to ethnicity and religious affiliation. The second reason reflects the measurement of drug use. We selected any use of a drug as the prior exposure variable when considering the gateway sequence of initiation. It could be argued that we did not use the same criteria as Kandel in her original conceptualization of the “gateway pattern” of drug use initiation; we did examine two versions (which made little difference) – no use of both alcohol and tobacco, and no use of one or the other of these. Future work might examine the relationship between onset of regular use to examine whether the same relationships still hold as observed in the analyses presented here.
Finally, our conclusions are limited by the fact that we did not measure instrumental variables explicitly, nor were we able to conduct the kinds of analysis required to better examine potential causal effects of preventing the use of drugs “early” in the “gateway” sequence. A more focused approach could also be used to study one place and interval of time to measure explicitly a single instrumental variable, such as a change in cigarette taxation rates, to estimate the effects of cigarette use on later substance use. This was examined for the relationship between tobacco use and physical health, using cigarette price as the instrumental variable (Leigh & Schembri, 2004). The next step in this line of research should consequently be to undertake focused analyses.
Despite these limitations, the present study is the first to describe cross-national associations between substances in the order of initiation of drug use, based on largely comparable sampling strategies and assessment tools. The most notable advantage of the WMHS is that these surveys represents 17 large, nationally representative and regionally diverse samples, and cover a wide range of ages and hence birth cohorts, over a period of changing drug markets and country specific social norms related to drug use.
The present study provided suggestive evidence to suggest that drug use initiation is not constant across contexts and cultures. Although cannabis is most often the first illicit drug used, and its use is typically preceded by tobacco and alcohol use, the variability seen across countries, which is related to the background prevalence of such drug use, provides evidence to suggest that this sequence is not immutable. Violations of this sequence are not associated with the development of dependence; rather, it seems to be the age of onset and degree of exposure to any drugs that are more important predictors.
* Supplementary data for this report can be accessed with the online version of this paper at doi:xxx/j.drugalcdep.xxx …
1 Supplementary tables are available with the online version of this paper at doi.xxx/j.drugalcdep.xxx …
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Published on June 28, 2024
Federal and state courts reported a combined 13 percent decrease in authorized wiretaps in 2023, compared with 2022, according to the Judiciary’s 2023 Wiretap Report . Arrests in cases involving electronic surveillance increased, while convictions decreased.
The report covers wire, oral, and electronic intercepts that were concluded between Jan. 1, 2023, and Dec. 31, 2023, exclusive of interceptions regulated by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. The report is submitted annually to Congress by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (AO).
A total of 2,101 wiretaps were reported as authorized in 2023, compared with 2,406 the previous year. Of those, 1,129 were authorized by federal judges, an 11 percent decrease from 2022. State judges authorized 972 wiretaps, a 14 percent decrease from the previous year.
Portable devices, which includes cell phones, accounted for 95 percent of applications for intercepts.
There was an increase in the number of state wiretaps in which encryption was encountered, with 238 such reports in 2023, compared with 192 in 2022. In 218 of the encrypted state wiretaps reported in 2023, officials were unable to decrypt the plain text of messages. A total of 234 federal wiretaps were reported as being encrypted in 2023, of which 207 couldn’t be decrypted.
Drug offenses were the most prevalent type of crime investigated using intercepts. Fifty percent of all wiretap applications in 2023 cited narcotics as the most serious offense under investigation. Conspiracy was the second-most frequently cited crime (11 percent of total applications), and homicide and assault, the third largest category, was cited in about 5 percent of applications.
A total of 5,530 people were arrested as a result of wiretap investigations in 2023, up 5 percent from 2022, and 456 people were convicted in cases involving wiretaps, down 17 percent from the year before.
The District of Utah authorized the most federal wiretaps, accounting for about 6 percent of the applications approved by federal judges. Applications in six states accounted for 85 percent of all wiretaps approved by state judges. Those states were California, New York, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Federal and state laws limit the period of surveillance under an original order to 30 days. However, the period can be extended if a judge determines that additional time is justified. A total of 1,388 extensions were authorized in 2023, an increase of 2 percent from the year prior.
The Western District of Pennsylvania conducted the longest federal intercept that was terminated in 2023. An order was extended nine times to complete a 280-day wiretap in a narcotics investigation. The longest state-authorized wiretap occurred in Monroe, New York, where an original order was extended 26 times to complete a 733-day wiretap used in a narcotics investigation.
The average cost of a wiretap in 2023 was approximately $1.7 million, up significantly from the prior year. The increase was due to a state wiretap, conducted in Suffolk, New York, as part of a sweeping investigation into illegal drugs, which resulted in 29 arrests. The average cost of federal wiretaps in 2023 was $105,754, a 9 percent increase from 2022. The numbers include the cost of installing intercept devices and monitoring communications.
The AO is required by statute to report annually to Congress by June 30 on the number and nature of wiretaps concluded in the prior year. No report to the AO is needed when an order is issued with the consent of one of the principal parties to the communication. No report is required for the use of a pen register unless the pen register is used in conjunction with any other wiretap devices whose use must be recorded.
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It is thought this occurs among approximately 15-25% of regular users of any given class of intoxicants (e.g. alcohol, cannabis, opioids, nicotine, stimulants). 12. Recent discovery stemming from the boom in neuroimaging in the 1990s has added much more nuance to the dopamine-hijacking-the-brain hypothesis.
CASE STUDY 1. Drug gateway process The extract below is a story of a young boy who is a recovering addict. He relates the story of his ... For example, one early study found that girls who reported being sexually active had lower scores on measures of self-esteem. What the results did not indicate, however, is whether self-esteem was the cause ...
Szalavitz, "Once and for All, Marijuana is Not a Gateway Drug," Vice News, October 13, 2015. Google Scholar. 6. ... A Case-Control Study," The Lancet Psychiatry 2, no. 3 (2015), available at <> (last visited April 14, 2020). ... The SAGE Handbook of Drug & Alcohol Studies Volume 2. 2016. SAGE Knowledge. Entry . Psychoactive Drugs. Show ...
1. Introduction. The concept of "gateway hypothesis" has been studied since the 1970s (Kandel, 1975, Kandel and Faust, 1975) as the theory suggests that an adolescent's early experimentation with alcohol or tobacco or cannabis escalates to more addictive illicit drugs later in adulthood (Lynskey et al., 2003).Most commonly used illicit substances include heroin/opioids, cocaine and or ...
Literature Review. Date Published: November 1, 2018. This report presents the findings and methodology of a literature review of research relevant to an evaluation of the validity of the "gateway" hypothesis that using cannabis causes the user to progress to the use of harder illicit drugs such as cocaine or heroin.
An alternative to the gateway hypothesis has been proposed on the basis of the idea that the use of multiple drugs reflects a common liability for drug use and that addiction, rather than the use ...
The conclusion from these findings is that use of one drug, in this case a substance thought to be a gateway drug, can significantly alter neurobiological and behavioral responsiveness to a drug that follows it in the gateway sequence (for additional discussion, see E. Kandel and D. Kandel, 2014; D. Kandel and E. Kandel, 2015).
Profiles for 16 human-based studies Sec. 9 (pp. 42-72) Profiles for 7 animal-based studies Sec. 10 (pp. 73-84) The main text provides readers with a high-level summary of FRD's analysis, as well as general background information on the history of the gateway hypothesis and addictive drug laws in the United States.
We do have some hints of biological gateway effects in humans, though, from studies involving twins. One such study, which was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 2003 ...
marijuana use does vastly precede hard drug use. A study of the National Household SurveyofDrugAbuse(NHSDA)foundthatonly1.6%ofharddrugusersinitiatedhard drug use prior to use of marijuana (Morral et al. 2002). A study of the CHDS similarly found that only 1% of hard drug users aged 15-21 did not previously engage in
Marijuana use has been proposed to serve as a "gateway" that increases the likelihood that users will engage in subsequent use of harder and more harmful substances, known as the marijuana gateway hypothesis (MGH). The current study refines and extends the literature on the MGH by testing the hypothesis using rigorous quasi-experimental, propensity score-matching methodology in a ...
The new england journal of medicine 934 n engl j med 371;10 nejm.org september 4, 2014 cocaine in a mouse given nicotine for 7 days led to a marked reduction in long-term potentiation that started ...
The gateway drug hypothesis refers to the pattern of substance use during adolescence whereby legal substances, such as nicotine and alcohol, precede the progressive use of illicit substances like cocaine and heroin. This concept of a gateway progression related to addiction vulnerability has had important implications with respect to biology ...
1. What is the "Gateway Effect"? "The gateway effect, if it exists, has at least two potential and quite different sources (MacCoun, 1998). One interpretation is that it is an effect of the drug use itself (e.g., trying marijuana increases the taste for other drugs or leads users to believe that other substances are more pleasurable or less ...
Alcohol and tobacco are used first, followed by cannabis, which, in turn, is followed by the amphetamines, heroin, and cocaine. Some of the drugs in this sequence have been called "gateway drugs": that is, drugs whose use in some unspecified sense is a cause of the use of later drugs in the sequence. Traditionally, cannabis has been the ...
in, and cocaine. Some of the drugs in this sequence have been called "gateway drug. at is, drugs"whose use in some unspeci fied sense is a cause of the use of later drugs. in the sequence. Tradition-ally, cannabis has been the drug of most concern as a possible gateway to the use of cocaine and hero.
Substance Use Disorder (SUD) has been proven, through years of research, to be tightly connected to experiences of trauma. Through our specific research and data here with the Delaware Drug Overdose Fatality Review Commission (DOFRC), we have seen that at least 37.4% of decedents experienced at least one traumatic event.
Kandel is a longtime proponent of the "gateway hypothesis" of drug use: "a well-defined developmental sequence of drug use occurs that starts with a legal drug and proceeds to illegal drugs." Her epidemiological studies have shown that 87.9 percent of 18- to-34 year-old cocaine users had smoked cigarettes before using cocaine, but only ...
Other scholars have provided further support for the gateway theory as it pertains to other drug pathways (7-15). Studies guided by the gateway theory are not without critics. One critique is that such studies are often derived from population-based samples, which are known to exhibit low prevalence of hard drug use (12,16-17).
CASE STUDY 1. Drug gateway process The extract below is a story of a young boy who is a recovering addict. He relates the story of his ... one early study found that girls who reported being sexually active had lower scores on measures of self-esteem. What the results did not indicate, however, is whether self-esteem was the cause or a ...
Alison Green. Analysis and Assessment of Gateway Process The Us Army,1983 You are not thinking, you are merely being logical. -Niels Bohr, Danish physicist and Nobel Laureate Analysis and Assessment of Gateway Process is a document prepared in 1983 by the US Army. This document was declassified by the CIA in 2003.
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Case study or series: A detailed description of one or more patients. Ecological study: Rates of a disease or condition compared among groups of people. Cross-sectional study: A group, or groups, studied at a specific moment in time. Case-control study: One group with a condition compared to another without the condition. Cohort study: A large ...
DRUG USE AND ADDICTION AS A FORM OF MEMORY. Early psychological studies involving humans suggested that addiction is a form of learning and that relapse is a persistent memory of the drug experience. 12 To test this idea, investigators needed some insight into the cell-biologic nature of memory in general and of addiction in particular. Initial insights into the nature of memory were provided ...
The present study supported the existence of other factors influencing the ordering and progression of drug use because 1) other illicit drug use was more prevalent than cannabis use in some countries, e.g. Japan; 2) the association between initiation of "gateway" drugs (i.e. alcohol/tobacco and cannabis), and subsequent other illicit drug ...
Drug offenses were the most prevalent type of crime investigated using intercepts. Fifty percent of all wiretap applications in 2023 cited narcotics as the most serious offense under investigation. Conspiracy was the second-most frequently cited crime (11 percent of total applications), and homicide and assault, the third largest category, was ...