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AIMS AND SCOPE OF JOURNAL: The Annual Review of Food Science and Technology covers current and significant developments in the multidisciplinary field of food science and technology. Topics include: food microbiology, food-borne pathogens, and fermentation; food engineering, chemistry, biochemistry, rheology, and sensory properties; novel ingredients and nutrigenomics; emerging technologies in food processing and preservation; biotechnology applications and nanomaterials in food systems.  

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Status and perspective on green pesticide utilizations and food security, sample processing and concentration methods for viruses from foods and the environment prior to detection, potential of milk-derived extracellular vesicles as carriers for oral delivery of active phytoconstituents, nonconventional technologies in lipid modifications, medium- and long-chain triacylglycerol: preparation, health benefits, and food utilization, recent advances in lipid crystallization in the food industry, strategies to reduce fossil fuel use in food manufacturing, unleashing the potential of digitalization in the agri-food chain for integrated food systems, how diet and lifestyle can fine-tune gut microbiomes for healthy aging, wheat sourdough breadmaking: a scoping review, most read this month, most cited most cited rss feed, anthocyanins: natural colorants with health-promoting properties, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and their health benefits, pickering emulsions for food applications: background, trends, and challenges, myoglobin chemistry and meat color, cold plasma decontamination of foods *, the structure of the casein micelle of milk and its changes during processing, public health impacts of foodborne mycotoxins, natural colorants: food colorants from natural sources, collagen and gelatin, emulsion design to improve the delivery of functional lipophilic components.

Journal of Food Science and Technology

The Journal of Food Science and Technology (JFST) is the official publication of the Association of Food Scientists and Technologists of India (AFSTI). This monthly publishes peer-reviewed research papers and reviews in all branches of science, technology, packaging and engineering of foods and food products. Special emphasis is given to fundamental and applied research findings that have potential for enhancing product quality, extend shelf life of fresh and processed food products and improve process efficiency. Critical reviews on new perspectives in food handling and processing, innovative and emerging technologies and trends and future research in food products and food industry byproducts are also welcome. The journal also publishes book reviews relevant to all aspects of food science, technology and engineering.

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Biotechnology for resource efficiency, energy, environment, chemicals and health (breeech-2021), special issue 2024: international conference on new horizons in bioengineering: fostering academia-industry partnership (icb-2024).

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Dr. G. Nagamaniammai,   B.E, M. Tech, Ph. D Associate Professor Department Food Process Engineering School of Bioengineering, College of Engineering and Technology SRM Institute of Science and Technology Kattankulathur- 603203 Chengalpattu (Dt) Tamil Nadu, India  Mail.Id:[email protected] and [email protected] 

Dr. P. Gurumoorthi Ph.D., FISAB. HoD (i/c), Department of Food and Process Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Technology SRM Institute of Science and Technology Kattankulathur- -603 203, Chengalpattu Dt. Tamil Nadu

Acceptance of Papers from Conference: 25th Feb 2024 to 30th Apr 2024

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REVIEW article

Insight on current advances in food science and technology for feeding the world population.

• 1 Department of Food and Nutrition, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
• 2 Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

While the world population is steadily increasing, the capacity of Earth to renew its resources is continuously declining. Consequently, the bioresources required for food production are diminishing and new approaches are needed to feed the current and future global population. In the last decades, scientists have developed novel strategies to reduce food loss and waste, improve food production, and find new ingredients, design and build new food structures, and introduce digitalization in the food system. In this work, we provide a general overview on circular economy, alternative technologies for food production such as cellular agriculture, and new sources of ingredients like microalgae, insects, and wood-derived fibers. We present a summary of the whole process of food design using creative problem-solving that fosters food innovation, and digitalization in the food sector such as artificial intelligence, augmented and virtual reality, and blockchain technology. Finally, we briefly discuss the effect of COVID-19 on the food system. This review has been written for a broad audience, covering a wide spectrum and giving insights on the most recent advances in the food science and technology area, presenting examples from both academic and industrial sides, in terms of concepts, technologies, and tools which will possibly help the world to achieve food security in the next 30 years.

Introduction

The capacity of Earth to regenerate its own resources is continuously and drastically reducing due to the exponential growth of the human population ( Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971 ; Henderson and Loreau, 2018 ). Over the last 50 years, the global human population has doubled, while the Earth overshoot day—the day on which humanity has exhausted the annual renewable bioresources of the Earth—has continuously become earlier, reaching its earliest date (July 29) in 2018 and 2019. Exceptionally, the Earth overshoot day was delayed to August 22 in 2020, due to the novel Coronavirus pandemic ( Global Footprint Network, 2020a ) ( Figure 1 ). However, this delay is the result of a pandemic disease and it is not the consequence of any long-term planned strategy, which is still required to improve the sustainability of our society. Bioresources are necessary to feed people. However, the production, including loss and waste of food account for 26% of the human ecological footprint ( Global Footprint Network, 2020b ). This is due to low efficiency in food production coupled with non-optimal waste management. By taking action and promoting sustainable behavior in the entire food chain and among consumers, the Earth overshoot day could be delayed, preserving Earth's regenerative capacity ( Moore et al., 2012 ).

Figure 1 . Earth overshoot day (blue) and global population (orange) evolution over the last 50 years.

By 2050, the population is expected to reach 9.7 billion and ensuring global food security will be a priority ( Berners-Lee et al., 2018 ). The first step toward food security is the reduction of waste and loss of food. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ~1.3 billion tons of food are lost/wasted in the food chain from production to retail and by consumers annually ( Wieben, 2017 ), which highlights the importance of the circular economy and consumer education. In addition, economic barriers should be addressed to give access to healthier and sustainable food to low-income consumers ( Hirvonen et al., 2020 ). However, the reduction of waste and economic barriers is not enough to reach global food security. Indeed, to feed the world population of 2050, food production should increase by 70% ( Floros et al., 2010 ). Additionally, diets should change and rely less on animal products, including more plant-, insect-, and microalgae-based products ( van Huis and Oonincx, 2017 ; Caporgno and Mathys, 2018 ; Lynch et al., 2018 ). This change is necessary as animal-based diets are less sustainable comparatively due to their demand for more natural resources, resulting in more environmental degradation ( Sabaté and Soret, 2014 ). Unfortunately, changing food production and consumption habits is not a straightforward process; it has to be efficient, sustainable, and economically feasible. New food products have to be nutritionally adequate, culturally and socially acceptable, economically accessible, as well as palatable. Moreover, new food products should aim to maintain or improve the health of consumers. Food science and technology can help address these problems by improving food production processes, including novel ingredients from more sustainable sources, and designing new highly-accepted food products.

However, the benefits of consuming novel and upgraded food products is not sufficient to obtain an effect on consumers. Indeed, the acceptability of, and demand for food varies around the world, based on, for example, geographic location, society structure, economy, personal income, religious constraints, and available technology. Food safety and nutritionally adequate foods (in terms of both macro- and micronutrients) are most important in low-income countries ( Sasson, 2012 ; Bain et al., 2013 ), whereas medium- and high-income countries prioritize foods to reduce risk of chronic disease, and functional and environmentally friendly food ( Azais-Braesco et al., 2009 ; Cencic and Chingwaru, 2010 ; Govindaraj, 2015 ). The concept of food has evolved from the amount of nutrients needed by a person to survive on a daily basis ( Floros et al., 2010 ) to a tool to prevent nutrition-related diseases (e.g., non-communicable diseases: type 2 diabetes, coronary diseases, cancer, and obesity), and to improve human physical and mental well-being ( Siró et al., 2008 ), and to slow/control aging ( Rockenfeller and Madeo, 2010 ). Therefore, the development of new food products should consider the needs and demands of consumers. In spite of this, across countries, personal income can limit the access to sufficient food for survival, let alone new and improved food products that have extra benefits.

Coupled to this complex scenario, food demand is also constrained, and affected by human psychology ( Wang et al., 2019 ). The naturally-occurring conservative and neophobic behavior of humans toward new food can lead to nutrition-related diseases due to poor dietary patterns already established during childhood ( Perry et al., 2015 ) and can lead to acceptability problems related to food containing novel ingredients such as insects in Western countries ( La Barbera et al., 2018 ). Additionally, the introduction in our diets of new food products obtained by means of novel technologies and ingredients from food waste and by-products can be undermined by low acceptability caused by human psychology ( Bhatt et al., 2018 ; Cattaneo et al., 2018 ; Siegrist and Hartmann, 2020 ). Therefore, to increase the successful integration of the solutions discussed in this paper into the diet, consumer behavior has to be considered. Finally, it should not be forgotten that food consumption is also determined by pleasure rather than just being a merely mechanical process driven by the need for calories ( Mela, 2006 ; Lowe and Butryn, 2007 ). The latter concept is particularly important when consumers are expected to change their eating habits. New food products developed using sustainable ingredients and processes should be designed to take in consideration sensorial attributes and psychological considerations, which will allow a straightforward transition to more sustainable diets.

The actions needed in the area of food to develop a sustainable society allowing the regeneration of Earth's bio-resources are several. They include changing our eating habits and dietary choices, reducing food waste and loss, preserving biodiversity, reducing the prevalence of food-related diseases, and balancing the distribution of food worldwide. To promote these actions, new ingredients and technologies are necessary ( Table 1 ).

Table 1 . Challenges/solutions matrix for the development of the food of the future using the most recent advances in food science and technology.

This review discusses the most recent advances in food science and technology that aim to ensure food security for the growing human population by developing the food of the future. We discuss (i) the circular economy, where food waste is valorized and enters back into the food production chain improving the sustainability of the food system and reduces Earth's biodiversity and resources loss; (ii) alternative technologies and sources for food production like cellular agriculture, algae, microalgae, insects, and wood-derived fibers, which use Earth's bioresources more efficiently; (iii) the design of food in terms of creative problem-solving that fosters food innovation allowing transition to more sustainable and nutritionally adequate diets without undermining their consumer acceptability; and (iv) digitalization in which artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR), and blockchain technology are used to better control and manage the food chain, and assist the development of novel ingredients and food, boosting the technological shift in the whole food system; (v) we also briefly discuss the effect of COVID-19 on the food supply chain, showing the need to develop a resilient food system.

Food Science and Technology Solutions for Global Food Security

The circular economy.

The unsustainable practice of producing and consuming materials based on the linear (take-make-dispose) economic model calls for a shift toward innovative and sustainable approaches embodied in the principles of the circular economy ( Jørgensen and Pedersen, 2018 ). In contrast to a linear economic model, where materials are produced linearly from a presumably infinite source of raw materials, the circular economy is based on closing the loop of materials and substances in the supply chain. In this model, the value of products, materials, and resources is preserved in the economy for as long as possible ( Merli et al., 2018 ).

Integrated into the food system, the circular economy offers solutions to achieve global food sustainability by minimizing food loss and waste, promoting efficient use of natural resources and mitigating biodiversity loss ( Jurgilevich et al., 2016 ), by retaining the resources within a loop, i.e., the resources are used in a cyclic process, reducing the demand for fresh raw materials in food production. This efficient use of natural resources for food in a circular economy, in turn, helps to rebuild biodiversity by preventing further conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land, which is one of the greatest contributors to biodiversity loss ( Dudley and Alexander, 2017 ).

This measure is highlighted by the fact that an enormous amount of waste is generated at various stages of the food supply chain. Food loss and waste accounts for 30% of the food produced for human consumption globally, translating into an estimated economic loss of USD 1 trillion annually ( FAO, 2019 ). Food loss and waste also takes its toll on the environment in relation to the emission of greenhouse gases associated with disposal of food waste in landfills, as well as in activities associated with the production of food such as agriculture, processing, manufacturing, transportation, storage, refrigeration, distribution, and retail ( Papargyropoulou et al., 2014 ). The various steps in the food supply chain have an embedded greenhouse gas impact, which is exacerbated when food is wasted and lost.

Addressing the challenge of minimizing food loss and waste requires proper identification of what constitutes food loss and waste. The FAO defines food loss and waste as a decrease in the quantity or quality of food along the food supply chain ( FAO, 2019 ). Food loss occurs along the food supply chain from harvest, slaughter, and up to, but not including, the retail level. Food waste, on the other hand, occurs at the retail and consumption level. From the FAO's definition, food that is converted for other uses such as animal feed, and inedible parts of foods, for example, bones, feathers, and peel, are not considered food loss or waste. The Waste and Resources Action Programme ( Quested and Johnson, 2009 ), a charity based in the UK, has defined and categorized food waste as both avoidable and unavoidable. Avoidable food waste includes food that is still considered edible but was thrown away, such as vegetables or fruits that do not pass certain standards, leftover food, and damaged stock that has not been used. Unavoidable food waste arises from food preparation or production and includes those by-products that are not edible in normal circumstances, such as vegetable and fruit peels, bones, fat, and feathers. Despite the lack of consensus on the definition of food loss and waste, the reduction in food loss and waste points in one direction and that is securing global food sustainability.

In a circular food system, the strategies for reducing food waste vary with the type of waste ( Figure 2 ). The best measure to reduce avoidable food waste is prevention, which can be integrated in the various stages of the food supply chain. Preventing overproduction, improving packaging and storage facilities, reducing food surplus by ensuring balanced food distribution, and educating consumers about proper meal planning, better understanding of best before dates, and buying food that may not pass quality control standards based on aesthetics are some preventive measures to reduce avoidable food waste ( Papargyropoulou et al., 2014 ). For unavoidable food waste, reduction can be achieved by utilizing side-stream products as raw materials for the production of new food or non-food materials. The residual waste generated, both from the processing of avoidable and unavoidable food waste, can still be treated through composting, which returns nutrients back to the soil, and used for another cycle of food production ( Jurgilevich et al., 2016 ). Indeed, in a circular food system, waste is ideally non-existent because it is used as a feedstock for another cycle, creating a system that mimics natural regeneration ( Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019 ).

Figure 2 . Strategies to reduce food waste in the food supply chain in a circular food system: prevention for avoidable food waste (yellow curve) and valorization for unavoidable food waste (orange curve).

The valorization of unavoidable food waste, which mostly includes by-products or side-stream materials from the food processing industries, has resulted in novel food technologies that harness the most out of food waste and add value to food waste. These novel food technologies serve as new routes to achieving a circular food system by converting food waste into new food ingredients or non-food materials. Several ongoing examples of side-stream valorization have been explored and some of the most recent technologies are presented herein and summarized in Table 2 .

Table 2 . Summary of potentially functional and nutritional food components from cheese production, meat processing, seafood processing, and plant-based food production by-products.

One of the most famous success stories of side-stream valorization is the processing of whey, the leftover liquid from cheese production. It is an environmental hazard when disposed of without treatment, having a high biological oxygen demand (BOD) value of >35,000 ppm as well as a high chemical oxygen demand (COD) value of >60,000 ppm ( Smithers, 2008 ). These high BOD and COD values can be detrimental to aquatic life where the untreated whey is disposed of, reducing the available dissolved oxygen for fish and other aquatic animals. However, whey is loaded with both lactose and proteins, and therefore in the early days cheese producers sent their whey for use as pig feed, as still occurs in some areas today. As dairy science advanced, it was discovered that lactose and whey protein have great nutritional and technological potential. Lactose and its derivatives can be separated by various filtration and crystallization methods, which can then be used in infant formula or as a feedstock for glucose and galactose production ( Smithers, 2008 ; de Souza et al., 2010 ). Whey protein has also gained popularity for use in sports performance nutrition and as an enhancer of the functional properties of food, and so has experienced a significant increase in demand, both as isolate and concentrate products ( Lagrange et al., 2015 ).

The meat-processing industry produces various by-products that can also be further processed to obtain food ingredients. The plasma fraction of animal blood, which can easily be obtained by centrifugation, contains various plasma proteins, some of which can stabilize colloidal food systems, just like whey proteins. Others, like fibrinogen and thrombin, can act as meat glue and are therefore useful to make restructured meat product. Leftover skin, bones, and connective tissues can be processed to produce gelatin, an important gelling agent, as well as short peptides that impart an umami taste and are used in flavor enhancers. However, the use of non-muscle tissue from farm animals, especially from cows, would require strict toxicology assessment to ensure safety. There is a risk of spreading transmissible spongiform encephalopathy, a deadly disease caused by prion proteins which might spread to humans through the consumption of materials derived from non-meat tissues ( Toldrá et al., 2012 ).

The by-products of the seafood industry also provide great opportunities for valorization, with several known products and many other yet to be discovered. Fish-derived gelatin from leftover fish skin and bones can be presented as a gelatin alternative for several religious groups, for whom cattle- and swine-derived gelatin products are unacceptable ( Karayannakidis and Zotos, 2016 ). Rich in carotenoid and chitin, shells of common seafood such as crabs, lobster, and prawns can be further processed to extract functional ingredients. The extracted chitin from the shells can be treated to produce chitosan, a well-known biopolymer with the potential to be used as food packaging. One can also extract the red carotenoids present in the shells, most prominently astaxanthin, which can then be used as a nutritional and technological food additive ( Kandra et al., 2012 ). The liquid side stream of the fish-canning industry also has potential as a source of bioactive lipids, such as polyunsaturated omega-3 fatty acids ( Monteiro et al., 2018 ).

The increasing demand for plant-derived functional ingredients to cater for the vegetarian and vegan market can also be complemented with ingredients isolated from plant food processing side streams. Nixtamalization, the alkaline processing of maize, produces wastewater that is highly alkaline with a high COD of 10 200–20,000 ppm but is rich in carbohydrates and polyphenols ( Gutiérrez-Uribe et al., 2010 ). Microfiltration and ultrafiltration methods are used to isolate enriched fractions of carbohydrates and polyphenols from nixtamalization wastewater, which can later be integrated into various subsequent processes ( Castro-Muñoz and Yáñez-Fernández, 2015 ). Waste from the cereal, fruit, and vegetable industry can also be fermented by microbial means to produce various pigments for food production ( Panesar et al., 2015 ). Pigment extraction can also be performed on the leftover waste of the fresh-cut salad industry, which includes leafy vegetables and fruits that are deemed to be too blemished to be sold to the customer. Aside from pigments, such waste can also be a source of natural gelling agents and bioactive compounds that can be refined for further use in the food industry ( Plazzotta et al., 2017 ). Extraction of carotenoids, flavonoids, and phenolic compounds from fruits and vegetables waste as well as from wastewater (e.g., from olive mill) can be achieved using green technologies such as supercritical carbon dioxide, ultrasound, microwave, pulsed electric fields, enzymes, membrane techniques, and resin adsorption ( Rahmanian et al., 2014 ; Saini et al., 2019 ). Additionally, waste from potato processing, such as potato peel and potato fruit juice (a by-product of potato starch production), can yield various polyphenols, alkaloids, and even protein extracts by using different refining methods ( Fritsch et al., 2017 ).

In addition to food waste, there are also other, often unexpected, sources of food ingredients. For example, while wood cannot be considered part of the food industry by itself, the extraction of emulsifier from sawdust can serve as an example of how the waste of one industrial cycle can be used as a feedstock for another industrial cycle and in effect reduce the overall wasted material ( Pitkänen et al., 2018 ). Straw from grain production, such as barley and wheat, can also be processed to extract oligosaccharides to be used as prebiotic additives into other food matrices ( Huang et al., 2017 ; Alvarez et al., 2020 ). While young bamboo shoots have been commonly used in various Asian cuisines, older bamboo leaves can also act as a source of polyphenolic antioxidants, which can be used to fortify food with bioactive compounds ( Ni et al., 2012 ; Nirmala et al., 2018 ).

Alternative Technologies and Sources for Food Production

To feed the growing population, the circular economy concept must be combined with increasing food production. However, food production has been impaired by depletion of resources, such as water and arable land, and by climate change. Projections indicate that 529,000 climate-related deaths will occur worldwide in 2050, corresponding with the predicted 3.2% reduction in global food availability (including fruits, vegetables, and red meat) caused by climate change ( Springmann et al., 2016 ). Strategies to overcome food production issues have been developed and implemented that aim to improve agricultural productivity and resource use (vertical farming and genetic modification), increase and/or tailor the nutritional value of food (genetic engineering), produce new alternatives to food and/or food ingredients (cellular cultures, insects, algae, and dietary fibers), and protect biodiversity. Such solutions have been designed to supply current and future food demand by sustainably optimizing the use of natural resources and boosting the restructuration of the food industry models ( Figure 3 ).

Figure 3 . A view of future food based on current prospects for optimizing the use of novel techniques, food sources, and nutritional ingredients.

Cellular agriculture is an emerging field with the potential to increase food productivity locally using fewer resources and optimizing the use of land. Cellular agriculture has the potential to produce various types of food with a high content of protein, lipids, and fibers. This technique can be performed with minimal or no animal involvement following two routes: tissue engineering and fermentation ( Stephens et al., 2018 ). In the tissue engineering process, cells collected from living animals are cultured using mechanical and enzymatic techniques to produce muscles to be consumed as food. In the case of the fermentation process, organic molecules are biofabricated by genetically modified bacteria, algae, or yeasts, eliminating the need for animal cells. The Solar Foods company uses the fermentation process to produce Solein, a single-cell pure protein ( https://solarfoods.fi/solein/ ). This bioprocess combines the use of water, vitamins, nutrients, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from air, and solar energy to grow microorganisms. After that, the protein is obtained in powder form and can be used as a food ingredient. Most of the production in cellular agriculture has been focused on animal-derived products such as beef, chicken, fish, lobster, and proteins for the production of milk and eggs ( Post, 2014 ; Stephens et al., 2018 ). Compared with traditional meat, the production of cultured meat can (i) reduce the demand for livestock products, (ii) create a novel nutrition variant for people with dietary restrictions, (iii) favor the control and design of the composition, quality, and flavor of the product, and (iv) reduce the need for land, transportation costs (it can be produced locally), waste production, and greenhouse gas emissions ( Bhat and Fayaz, 2011 ). Moreover, the controlled production of cultured meat can eliminate the presence of unwanted elements, such as saturated fat, microorganisms, hormones, and antibiotics ( Bhat and Fayaz, 2011 ). One of the most important events for cultured meat took place in a 2013 press conference in London, when cultured beef burger meat was tasted by the public for the first time ( O'Riordan et al., 2017 ). After this, cultured meat has inspired several start-ups around the world and some examples are presented in Table 3 ( Clean Meat News Australia, 2019 ).

Table 3 . Examples of start-ups producing different cultured products around the world.

However, cellular agriculture has the potential to produce more than only animal-derivative products. A recent study conducted by the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland explored the growing of plant cell cultures from cloudberry, lingonberry, and stoneberry in a plant growth medium. The cells were described to be richer in protein, essential polyunsaturated fatty acids, sugars, and dietary fibers than berry fruits, and additionally to have a fresh odor and flavor ( Nordlund et al., 2018 ). Regarding their use, berry cells can be used to replace berry fruits in smoothies, yogurt, jam, etc. or be dried and incorporated as ingredients in several preparations (e.g., cakes, desserts, and toppings).

Insects are potentially an important source of essential nutrients such as proteins, fat (including unsaturated fatty acids), polysaccharides (including chitin), fiber, vitamins, and minerals. Edible insects are traditionally consumed in different forms (raw, steamed, roasted, smoked, fried, etc.) by populations in Africa, Central and South America, and Asia ( Duda et al., 2019 ; Melgar-Lalanne et al., 2019 ). The production of edible insects is highly efficient, yielding various generations during the year with low mortality rates and requiring only little space, such as vertical systems ( Ramos-Elorduy, 2009 ). Additionally, the cultivation of edible insects utilizes very cheap materials, usually easily found in the surrounding area. Indeed, insects can be fed by food waste and agricultural by-products not consumed by humans, which fits well in the circular bioeconomy models (section The circular economy). The introduction of insect proteins could diversify and create more sustainable dietary alternatives. However, the resistance of consumers to the ingestion of insects needs to be overcome ( La Barbera et al., 2018 ). The introduction of insects in the form of powder or flour can help solve consumer resistance ( Duda et al., 2019 ; Melgar-Lalanne et al., 2019 ). Several technologies are used to transform insect biomass into food ingredients, including drying processes (freeze-drying, oven-drying, fluidized bed drying, microwave-drying, etc.) and extraction methods (ultrasound-assisted extraction, cold atmospheric pressure plasma, and dry fractionation) ( Melgar-Lalanne et al., 2019 ). Recently, cricket powder was used for enriching pasta, resulting in a significant increase in protein, fat, and mineral content, and additionally improving its texture and appearance ( Duda et al., 2019 ). Chitin, extracted from the outer skeleton of insects, is a precursor for bioactive derivatives, such as chitosan, which presents potential to prevent and treat diseases ( Azuma et al., 2015 ; Kerch, 2015 ). Regenerated chitin has been recognized as a promising emulsifier ( Xiao et al., 2018 ), with potential applications including stabilizing yogurt, creams, ice cream, etc. Whole insects, insect powder, and food products from insects such as flavored snacks, energy bars and shakes, and candies are already commercialized around the world. However, food processing and technology is currently needed to help address consumer neophobia and meet sensory requirements ( Melgar-Lalanne et al., 2019 ).

Algae and microalgae are a source of nutrients in various Asian countries ( Priyadarshani and Rath, 2012 ; Wells et al., 2017 ; Sathasivam et al., 2019 ), that can be consumed as such (bulk material) or as an extract. The extracts consists of biomolecules that are synthesize more efficiently than plants ( Torres-Tiji et al., 2020 ). Some techniques used for improving algae and microalgae productivity and their nutritional quality are genotype selection, alteration, and improvement, and controlling growing conditions ( Torres-Tiji et al., 2020 ). Although their direct intake is more traditional (e.g., nori used in sushi preparation), in recent years the extraction of bioactive compounds from algae and microalgae for the preparation of functional food has attracted great interest. Spirulina and Chlorella are the most used microalgae species for this purpose, being recognized by the European Union for uses in food ( Zarbà et al., 2020 ). These microalgae are rich in proteins (i.e., phycocyanin), essential fatty acids (i.e., omega-3, docosahexaenoic acid, and eicosapentaenoic acid), β-glucan, vitamins from various groups (e.g., A, B, C, D2, E, and H), minerals like iodine, potassium, iron, magnesium, and calcium, antioxidants (i.e., ß-carotene), and pigments (i.e., astaxanthin) ( Priyadarshani and Rath, 2012 ; Vigani et al., 2015 ; Wells et al., 2017 ; Sathasivam et al., 2019 ). The latter molecules can be recovered using, for example, pulsed electric field, ultrasound, microwaves, and supercritical CO 2 ( Kadam et al., 2013 ; Buchmann et al., 2018 ).

Finally, in addition to proteins, lipids, and digestible carbohydrates, it is necessary to introduce fiber in to the diet. Dietary fibers include soluble (pectin and hydrocolloids) and insoluble (polysaccharides and lignin) fractions, which are usually obtained through the direct ingestion of fruits, vegetables, cereals, and grains ( McKee and Latner, 2000 ). Although appropriate dietary fiber intake leads to various health benefits, the proliferation of low fiber foods, especially in Western countries resulted in low dietary intake ( McKee and Latner, 2000 ; Anderson et al., 2009 ). This lack of consumed dietary fibers created the demand for fiber supplementation in functional foods ( McKee and Latner, 2000 ; Doyon and Labrecque, 2008 ). As additives, besides all benefits in health and well-being, dietary fibers contribute to food structure and texture formation ( Sakagami et al., 2010 ; Tolba et al., 2011 ; Jones, 2014 ; Aura and Lille, 2016 ).

Sources of dietary fibers include food crops (e.g., wheat, corn, oats, sorghum, oat, etc.), vegetables/fruits (e.g., apple and pear biomasses recovered after juicing process, orange peel and pulp, pineapple shells, etc.) ( McKee and Latner, 2000 ) and wood ( Pitkänen et al., 2018 ). The use of plant-based derivatives and waste aligns with the circular bioeconomy framework and contributes to the sustainability of the food chain.

It is worth mentioning that new and alternative sources of food and food ingredients require approval in the corresponding regulatory systems before commercialization. In Europe, safety assessment is carried out according to the novel food regulation of the European Union [Regulation (EU) 2015/2283]. Important aspects such as composition, stability, allergenicity, and toxicology should be evaluated for each new food or food ingredient ( Pitkänen et al., 2018 ). Such regulatory assessments are responsible for guaranteeing that new food and food ingredients are safe for human consumption.

Food Design

Humans are at the center of the food supply ecosystem, with diverse and dynamic expectations. To impart sustainability in food supply by utilizing novel materials and technologies discussed in the preceding chapters, the framework of food production and consumption should go beyond creating edible objects and integrate creativity to subvert neophobic characteristics of consumers and enhance acceptability of sustainable product innovations. These innovations should also consider changing consumer demographics, lifestyle and nutritional requirements. Food design is a newly practiced discipline to foster human-centric innovation in the food value chain by applying a design thinking process in every step of production to the disposal of food ( Olsen, 2015 ). The design concept utilizes the core ideas of consumer empathy, rapid prototyping, and mandate the collaboration of a multitude of sectors involved in designing food and the distribution of food to the space where we consume it ( Figure 4 ) ( Zampollo, 2020 ).

Figure 4 . Neural network graphical representation of the major disciplines (black dots) in the food design concept and their interconnections. Sub-disciplines arising through communion of ideas of some major disciplines indicated by gray dots.

The sub-discipline of food product design relates to the curation of food products from a technological perspective utilizing innovative process and structured engineering methodologies to translate consumer wishes into product properties. In the future, food producers need to shift their focus from the current conventional approach of mass production, to engineering of food products that emphasizes food structure-property-taste. Through food product design, it is possible to influence the health of consumers by regulating nutrient bioavailability, satiety, gut health, and developing feelings of well-being, as well as encompass consumer choice by modulating consumers sensorial experience. These aspects become important with the introduction of new materials and healthy alternatives where the neophobic characteristic of humans can lead to poor food choices and eating habits due to consumer prejudices or inferior sensorial experience. For example, environmental concerns related to meat substitutes were less relevant for consumers, and sensorial properties were the decisive factor ( Hoek et al., 2011 ; Weinrich, 2019 ). In this regard, food designers and chefs will have an important role in influencing sustainable and healthy eating choices by increasing the acceptability of food products, using molecular gastronomy principles. Innogusto ( www.innogusto.com ), a start-up founded in 2018, aims to develop gastronomic dishes based on meat substitutes to increase their acceptability.

To stimulate taste sensations, electric and thermal energy have been studied, referred to as “digital taste” ( Green and Nachtigal, 2015 ; Ranasinghe et al., 2019 ). For example, reducing the temperature of sweet food products can increase sweet taste adaptation and reduce sweetness intensity ( Green and Nachtigal, 2015 ). On the other hand, electric taste augmentation can modulate the perception of saltiness and sourness in unsalted and diluted food products leading to a possible reduction of salt ( Ranasinghe et al., 2019 ). Another external stimulus that can modify the sensorial experience during food consumption, is social context. In this case, interaction with other people leads to a resonance “mirror” mechanism, that allow people to tune in to the emotions of others. Indeed, positive emotions such as happiness increase the desirability and acceptability of food, contrarily to neutral and negative emotions (angriness) ( Rizzato et al., 2016 ). Also, auditory responses such as that to background music, referred to as “sonic seasoning” ( Reinoso Carvalho et al., 2016 ) have been studied in the context of desirability and overall perception of food. Noise is able to reduce the perception of sweetness and enhance the perception of an umami taste ( Yan and Dando, 2015 ). Bridging the interior design concepts with the sensory perception in a holistic food space design is an interesting opportunity to influence healthy habits and accommodate unconventional food in our daily lives.

Food packaging which falls under the Design for food sub-discipline is expected to play an integral role to tackle issues of food waste/loss. Potential solutions to food waste/loss at the consumers level can be realized by the design of resealable packages, consideration of portion size, clear labeling of “best by” and expiration dates, for example. Although a clear understanding on the interdependency of food waste and packaging design in the circular economy has not yet been established, the design of smart packaging to prolong shelf life and quality of highly perishable food like fresh vegetables, fruits, dairy, and meat products has been considered the most efficient option ( Halloran et al., 2014 ). Packaging is a strong non-verbal medium of communication between product designers and consumers which can potentially be used to favor the consumption of healthier and sustainable options ( Plasek et al., 2020 ). Packaging linguistics has shown differential effect on taste and quality perceptions ( Khan and Lee, 2020 ), whereas designs have shown to create emotional attachment to the product surpassing the effect of taste ( Gunaratne et al., 2019 ). Visual stimuli such as weight, color, size, and shape of the food containers have been linked to the overall liking of the food ( Piqueras-Fiszman and Spence, 2011 ; Harrar and Spence, 2013 ). Food was perceived to be dense with higher satiety when presented in heavy containers compared with light-weighted containers ( Piqueras-Fiszman and Spence, 2011 ).

In light of emerging techniques in food production, it is envisioned that technologies like 3D printing, at both the industrial and household level, will be widely used to design food and recycle food waste ( Gholamipour-Shirazi et al., 2020 ). Upprinting Food ( https://upprintingfood.com/ ), a start-up company, has initiated the production of snacks from waste bread using 3D printing. These initiatives will also encourage the inclusion of industrial side streams (discussed in section the circular economy) in the mainstream using novel technologies. In addition to the increasing need for healthy food, it is envisioned that the food industry will see innovation regarding personalized solutions ( Poutanen et al., 2017 ). In the latter, consumers will be at the center of the food production system, where they can choose food that supports their personal physical and mental well-being, and ethical values. Techniques such as 3D printers can be applied in smart groceries and in the home, where one can print personalized food ( Sun et al., 2015 ) inclusive of molecular gastronomy methods ( D'Angelo et al., 2016 ). A challenge will be to incorporate the food structure-property-taste factor in such systems. In a highly futuristic vision, concepts of personalized medicine are borrowed to address the diverse demands of food through personalized or “smart” food, possibly solving food-related diseases, while reducing human ecological footprint.

Digitalization

Many major challenges faced by global food production, as discussed previously and presented in Table 1 (eating habits and dietary choices, food waste and loss, biodiversity, diseases, and resource availability), can be addressed by food system digitalization. The most recent research advances aim to overcome these challenges using digitalization (summarized in Table 4 and Figure 5 ). The rapidly advancing information and communication technology (ICT) sector has enabled innovative technologies to be applied along the agri-food chain to meet the demands for safe and sustainable food production (i.e., traceability) ( Demartini et al., 2018 ; Raheem et al., 2019 ).

Table 4 . Recent research advances in digitalization solutions to overcome challenges in global food production.

Figure 5 . Digitalization solutions for the development of future food. Red area represents digitalization-enabled targets. IoT, Internet of Things; ML, Machine Learning; RFID, Radio Frequency Identification; AI, Artificial Intelligence.

An interesting part of ICT is artificial intelligence (AI). The latter is a field of computer science that allows machines, especially computer systems, to have cognitive functions like humans. These machines can learn, infer, adapt, and make decisions based on collected data ( Salah et al., 2019 ). Over the past decade, AI has changed the food industry in extensive ways by aiding crop sustainability, marketing strategies, food sales, eating habits and preferences, food design and new product development, maintaining health and safety systems, managing food waste, and predicting health problems associated with food.

Digitalization can be used to modify our perception of food and help solve unsustainable eating behaviors. It is hoped that a better insight into how the neural network in the human brain works upon seeing food can be discovered using AI in the future and can thus direct consumer preference toward healthier diets. Additionally, it can be used to assist the development of new food structures and molecules such as modeling food gelling agents (e.g., using fuzzy modeling to predict the influence of different gum-protein emulsifier concentration on mayonnaise), and the design of liquid-crystalline food (by predicting the most stable liquid crystalline phases using predictive computer simulation tool based on field theory) ( Mezzenga et al., 2006 ; Ghoush et al., 2008 ; Dalkas and Euston, 2020 ). In addition, the development of aroma profiles can be explored using AI. Electronic eyes, noses, and tongues can analyze food similarly to sensory panelists and help in the optimization of quality control in food production ( Loutfi et al., 2015 ; Nicolotti et al., 2019 ; Xu et al., 2019 ). Companies like Gastrograph AI ( https://gastrograph.com/ ) and Whisk ( https://whisk.com/ ) are using AI and natural language processing to model consumer sensory perception, predict their preferences toward food and beverage products, map the world's food ingredients, and provide specific advertisements based on consumer personalization and preferences.

With the advancement of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), in the future, digitalization can offer obesity-related solutions, where consumers can eat healthy food while simultaneously seeing unhealthy desirable food. This possibility has been studied by Okajima et al. (2013) using an AR system to change visual food appearance in real time. In their study, the visual appearance of food can highly influence food perception in terms of taste and perceived texture.

AI also provides a major solution to food waste problems by estimating food demand quantity, predicting waste volumes, and supporting effective cleaning methods by smart waste management ( Adeogba et al., 2019 ; Calp, 2019 ; Gupta et al., 2019 ).

AI-enabled agents, Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, and blockchain technology can be combined to maximize the supply network and increase the revenue of all parties involved along the agri-food value chain ( Salah et al., 2019 ). Blockchain is a technology that can record multiple transactions from multiple parties across a complex network. Changing the records inside the blockchain requires the consensus of all parties involved, thus giving a high level of confidence in the data ( Olsen et al., 2019 ). Blockchain technology can support the traceability and transparency of the food supply chain, possibly increasing the trust of consumers, and in combination with AI, intelligent precision farming can be achieved, as illustrated in Figure 6 .

Figure 6 . Digitalization in the food supply chain: intelligent precision farming with artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain. IoT, Internet of Things; ML, Machine Learning. Modified from Salah et al. (2019) and reproduced with permission from IEEE.

The physical flow of the food supply chain is supported by the digital flow, consisting of different interconnected digital tools. As each block is approved, it can be added to the chain of transactions, and it becomes a permanent record of the entire process. Each blockchain contains specific information about the process where it describes the crops used, equipment, process methods, batch number, conditions, shelf-time, expiration date, etc. ( Kamath, 2018 ; Kamilaris et al., 2019 ).

Traceability and transparency of the complex food supply network are continuously increasing their importance in food manufacturing management. Not only are they an effective way to control the quality and safety of food production, but they can also be effective tools to monitor the flow of resources from raw materials to the end consumer. In the future, it will be essential to recognize the bottlenecks of the entire food supply chain and redirect the food resource allocation accordingly to minimize food waste.

The digital tools reviewed here can be combined with all the solutions proposed before, enabling fast achievement of the necessary conditions for feeding the increasing world population while maintaining our natural resources.

The Effect of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic on the Food System

Although the strategies examined in this review can possibly help reaching food security in 2050, the entire food system has been facing a new challenge because of COVID-19 pandemic. Since December 2019, a new severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by a novel Coronavirus started spreading worldwide from China. To contain the diffusion of the novel Coronavirus and avoid the collapse of national sanitary systems, several governments locked down entire nations. These actions had severe consequences on global economy, including the food system.

As first consequence, the lockdown changed consumer purchasing behavior. At the initial stage of the lockdown, panic-buying behavior was dominant, in which consumers were buying canned foods and stockpiling them, leading to shortage of food in several supermarkets ( Nicola et al., 2020 ). However, as the lockdown proceeded, this behavior become more moderate ( Bakalis et al., 2020 ). The problems faced by the food supply chain in assuring food availability for the entire population have risen concerns about its architecture. Indeed, as discussed by Bakalis et al. (2020) , the western world food supply chain has an architecture with a bottleneck at the supermarkets/suppliers interface where most of the food is controlled by a small number of organizations. Additionally, as noted by these authors, problems with timely packaging of basic foods (such as flour) led to their shortage. Bakalis et al. (2020) suggest that the architecture of the food system should be more local, decentralized, sustainable, and efficient. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of the food system, indicating that the aid of future automation (robotics) and AI would help to maintain an operational supply chain. Therefore, the entire food system should be rethought with a resilient and sustainable perspective, which can assure adequate, safe, and health-promoting food to all despite of unpredictable events such as COVID-19, by balancing the roles of local and global producers and involving policymakers ( Bakalis et al., 2020 ; Galanakis, 2020 ).

Another problem caused by the lockdown was food waste. Indeed, restaurants, catering services, and food producers increased their food waste due to forced closure and rupture of the food chain ( Bakalis et al., 2020 ). On the other hand, consumers become more aware of food waste and strived to reduce household food waste. Unfortunately, the positive behavior of consumers toward reducing food waste has been more driven by the COVID-19 lockdown situation rather than an awareness ( Jribi et al., 2020 ).

COVID-19 has also showed the importance of designing food products that can help boosting our immune system and avoid the diffusion of virions through the entire food chain ( Galanakis, 2020 ; Roos, 2020 ). Virions can enter the food chain during food production, handling, packing, storage, and transportation and be transmitted to consumers. This possibility is increased with minimally processed foods and animal products. Therefore, packaging and handling of minimally processed foods should be considered to reduce viral transfer while avoiding increasing waste. The survival of virions in food products can be reduced by better designing and engineering foods taking into consideration for example not only thermal inactivation of virions but also the interaction between temperature of inactivation, water activity of food, and food matrix effects ( Roos, 2020 ).

Therefore, to reach food security by 2050, besides the solutions highlighted in section (Food science and technology solutions for global food security), it is of foremost important to implement actions in the entire food system that can counteract exceptional circumstances such as the global pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus.

Conclusions and Outlook

To achieve food security in the next 30 years while maintaining our natural bioresources, a transition from the current food system to a more efficient, healthier, equal, and consumer- and environment-centered food system is necessary. This transition, however, is complex and not straightforward. First, we need to fully transition from a linear to a circular economy where side streams and waste are valorized as new sources of food materials/ingredients, leading to more efficient use of the available bioresources. Secondly, food production has to increase. For this, vertical farming, genetic engineering, cellular agriculture, and unconventional sources of ingredients such as microalgae, insects, and wood-derived fibers can make a valid contribution by leading to a more efficient use of land, an increase in food and ingredient productivity, a shift from global to local production which reduces transportation, and the transformation of non-reusable and inedible waste into ingredients with novel functionalities. However, to obtain acceptable sustainable food using novel ingredients and technologies, the aid of food design is necessary in which conceptualization, development, and engineering in terms of food structure, appearance, functionality, and service result in food with higher appeal for consumers. To complement these solutions, digital technology offers an additional potential boost. Indeed, AI, blockchain, and VR and AR are tools which can better manage the whole food chain to guarantee quality and sustainability, assist in the development of new ingredients and structures, and change the perception of food improving acceptability, which can lead to a reduction of food-related diseases.

By cooperating on a global scale, we can envision that in the future it may be common to, for example, 3D print a steak at home using cells or plant-based proteins. The understanding of the interaction between our gastrointestinal tract and the food ingredients/structures aided by AI and biosensors might allow the 3D printed steak to be tailored in terms of nutritional value and individual preferences. The food developed in the future can possibly also self-regulate its digestibility and bioavailability of nutrients. In this context, the same foodstuff consumed by two different people would be absorbed according to the individuals' needs. In this futuristic example, the food of the future would be able to solve food-related diseases such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, while maintaining the ability of the Earth to renew its bioresources.

However, the strategies and solutions proposed here can possibly only help to achieve sustainable food supply by 2050 if they are supported and encouraged globally by common policies. Innovations in food science and technology can ensure the availability of acceptable, adequate, and nutritious food, and can help shape the behavior of consumers toward a more sustainable diet. Finally, the recent COVID-19 global pandemic has highlighted the importance of developing a resilient food system, which can cope with exceptional and unexpected situations. All these actions can possibly help in achieving food security by 2050.

Author Contributions

FV wrote abstract, sections introduction, the effect of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on the food system, and conclusions and outlook, and coordinated the writing process. MA and FA wrote section the circular economy. DM and JS wrote section alternative technologies and sources for food production. MB and JV wrote section food design. AA and EP wrote section digitalization. FV and KM revised and edited the whole manuscript. All authors have approved the final version before submission and contributed to planning the contents of the manuscript.

FV, MA, FA, and KM acknowledge the Academy of Finland for funding (FV: Project No. 316244, MA: Project No. 330617, FA: Project No. 322514, KM: Project No. 311244). DM acknowledges Tandem Forest Values for funding (TFV 2018-0016).

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher's Note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Acknowledgments

We thank JV for drawing Figures 2 – 6 , and Mr. Troy Faithfull for revising and editing the manuscript.

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CrossRef Full Text

Keywords: food loss and food waste, circular economy, food production and food security, food structure design, new ingredients, digitalization, food design

Citation: Valoppi F, Agustin M, Abik F, Morais de Carvalho D, Sithole J, Bhattarai M, Varis JJ, Arzami ANAB, Pulkkinen E and Mikkonen KS (2021) Insight on Current Advances in Food Science and Technology for Feeding the World Population. Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 5:626227. doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2021.626227

Received: 30 November 2020; Accepted: 23 September 2021; Published: 21 October 2021.

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Copyright © 2021 Valoppi, Agustin, Abik, Morais de Carvalho, Sithole, Bhattarai, Varis, Arzami, Pulkkinen and Mikkonen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Fabio Valoppi, fabio.valoppi@helsinki.fi

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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• Published: 24 August 2024

Research on food security issues considering changes in rainfall

• SiMan Jiang 1 ,
• Shuyue Chen 2 ,
• Qiqi Xiao 2 &
• Zhong Fang 2  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  19698 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Environmental economics
• Environmental social sciences

Ensuring food security is not only vital to the adequate supply of food in the world, but also the key to the economic development and social stability of various countries. Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2016 to 2020, this paper selects the number of foodborne diseases patients and iodine deficiency disease patients as reference objects, uses stunting rate of children under 5 years old, malnutrition rate of children under 5 years old, obesity rate of children under 5 years old, and newborn visit rate to measure improving nutrition, proposes Meta Entropy Two-Stage Dynamic Direction Distance Function (DDF) Under an exogenous Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to measure the efficiency of hunger eradication, food security, and improving nutrition under the influence of exogenous variable rainfall. The research results indicate that the sustainability of China’s agricultural economy is insufficient, and the focus of attention should be different in different stages. In addition, the average efficiency of the three regions generally shows a decreasing level in the eastern, western, and central regions. In order to improve China's ability to guarantee food security, we must continue to strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure, increase policy support for green agricultural production, promote the diversification of agricultural production, and enrich people’s agricultural product consumption varieties.

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Introduction.

The issue of food security is not only related to the livelihoods of countries but also to global development. In 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, putting forward 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), of which the second goal (SDG2) focuses on food security and commits to eradicating hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture by 2030, also known as the “Zero Hunger” goal. Food security is an important cornerstone and key issue for global sustainable development. Currently, Food production has made significant progress globally in eradicating hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition. However, many people are still facing hunger and malnutrition due to the impact of various factors such as extreme weather, global COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts in recent years. In addition, the loss of arable land and urban expansion have adversely affected agricultural land and put enormous pressure on preventing the degradation of ecosystem service functions and adapting to climate change, which brings new uncertainties to global food security and new challenges to food security in China. To cope with the uncertainty of global food security, food security in China has become even more important.

Having entered a new stage of development, China has made significant achievements in food security. In the face of the global food crisis, China’s food production has achieved a good harvest for 19 consecutive years, the total food output has remained above 650 million tons for 8 consecutive years, the self-sufficiency rate of food rations has exceeded 100 percent and that of cereal foods has exceeded 95 percent, with the per capita food possession at approximately 480 kg, which is higher than the internationally acknowledged food security line of 400 kg, and China has achieved basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute security in rations. Using 9 percent of the world's arable land and 6 percent of its freshwater resources, China has been able to feed nearly 20 percent of its population, making a historic transition from hunger to subsistence to well-being. However, after a long period of sustained improvement, China's food security situation was reversed in 2015 due to multiple challenges, including agricultural environmental pollution and intensifying climate change. Climate change will have a negative impact on food production, which will increase the price of agricultural products and subsequently increase China’s food imports, which in turn will affect China’s level of food self-sufficiency. Currently, for every 0.1 °C increase in temperature, China’s yield per unit area of the three major food crops will decrease by about 2.6 per cent, and just a 1 per cent increase in precipitation will increase the yield per unit area by 0.4 per cent. In recent years, climate change has led to significant changes in China’s agroclimatic resources: From 1951 to 2021, the annual average surface temperature in China increased at a rate of 0.26 °C per decade; annual rainfall in China increased by an average of 4.9 mm per decade, showing a trend of “northern expansion of the rainfall belt”. The “double increase in water and heat” of climate change has led to significant changes in China’s agroclimatic resources, with the crop growing season lengthening by 1.8 days per decade. The impact of climate change on agricultural production is both negative and positive, but the negative impact of uneven rainfall and extreme weather on agriculture is significant and requires increased attention. The problem of uneven rainfall is reflected in the redistribution of global rainfall, with increased rainfall in some areas causing flooding and damage to crop roots and soil structure, thus reducing food production; reduced rainfall in some other areas leads to drought, which affects crop growth and development, and likewise reduces food production. Droughts used to exist in the northern regions of China, but seasonal droughts are now occurring in many southern regions, especially at critical times of crop growth, leading to significant reductions in crop yields. At present, China's food security still faces many risks and challenges, with new problems in both production and consumption, such as the contradiction between the basic balance of food supply and demand and structural scarcity, the contradiction between food production methods and the upgrading of food demand, and the contradiction between the international food market linkage and the volatility of domestic food prices, which has resulted in a potentially further deterioration of the food security situation. These food insecurity trends will ultimately increase the risk of malnutrition and further affect the quality of diets, affecting people’s health in different ways. Currently, with less than a decade to go before the achievement of the 2030 SDGs, the global food security situation is still spiraling downwards. Therefore, food security should always be a matter of crisis awareness.

Food security is affected by several factors, and rainfall is one of the major influences on food production. The regional impact of rainfall on production is complex and can have an impact on the total food production in China. Although the national rainfall has not shown a significant trend in the last 50 years, there are significant regional differences. In the scientific study of global change, there will be a long way to go to study the impact of rainfall changes on food production and food security in different regions of China and to propose effective countermeasures.

Literature review

The concept of food security was first officially introduced by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 1974. It is defined as ensuring sufficient global availability of basic food supplies at all times, particularly in the case of natural disasters or other emergencies to prevent the exacerbation of food shortages, while steadily increasing food consumption in countries with low per capita intake to reduce production and price fluctuations. Make food security one of the basic rights of human life. This concept reflects people’s concerns about the occurrence of global food crisis at that time, recognizing that the decline of food supply plays a major role in promoting the expansion of hunger, while the instability of food prices caused by supply–demand imbalances exacerbates the severity of the hunger situation 1 . Although the early definition of food security primarily emphasized the quantity of food supply, namely the accessibility of food, and measures to address hunger mainly focused on expanding food production, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of food stability as a crucial aspect of food security 2 . As the world's economic situation evolves, people have gained a better understanding of food security, leading to an expanded conceptual framework. In 1982, the FAO revised the definition of food security to ensure sufficient food supply, stable food flows, and stable food sources for individuals or households. This new interpretation incorporates some micro considerations into the existing macro perspective, emphasizing the significance of balancing food supply and demand 3 . During the World Food Summit in 1996, the FAO updated the definition of food security to ensure that all individuals have physical and economic access to sufficient, nutritious and safe food at all times, and the effective utilization of these food nutrients, and defined four pillars of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. In 2001, the FAO added the term “social” to the original definition of food security, which has become the most widely cited definition in current international food policies, that is, to ensure that all individuals at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, nutritious and safe food to meet people's needs and preferences regarding food and promote people to lead positive and healthy lives.

Food security is closely related to people's lives, and it has always been the focus of academic attention. The existing research mainly analyzes the impact of resource endowment, climate change and government policy on food security, and then explores practical paths for various countries and regions to ensure food security in the future.

The literature primarily focuses on water resources, land resources, and human resources and other aspects to study the impact of resource endowment on food security. From the perspective of water resources, Kang et al. 4 summarized the evolution of irrigation water productivity in China over the past 60 years, studied the differences in food productivity under different planting patterns, fertilization levels, and irrigation water consumption, analyzed the current situation of water resources’ impact on food security and explored comprehensive measures to improve agricultural water use efficiency in the future; Chloe et al. 5 combining interviews and surveys from British farmers with the resilience theory to analyze the influencing factors of water scarcity risk and management strategies, found that farmers need to establish resilience by maintaining the buffer of water resources or increasing the availability of backup resources to minimize the negative impacts of water scarcity on food production and farmer’s economic income. From the perspective of land resources, Charoenratana and Shinohara 6 pointed out that land and its legal rights are crucial factors for farmer income and agricultural production, and sustainable food security can only be achieved if land is kept safe. Li et al. 7 indicated that while there has been a strong transition of cultivated land from non-staple food production to food production in the suburbs of Changchun after rapid urbanization, overall, the utilization diversity of suburban cultivated land in the black soil region of Northeast China has decreased, leading to a reduction in local supply of non-staple food. From the perspective of human resources, Yang et al. 8 found that the relationship between non-agricultural employment and food production presents an inverted U-shaped pattern, which means that in the case of a small supply of non-agricultural labor force, increasing non-agricultural employment will have a positive impact on food output, while in the case of a large supply of non-agricultural labor force, increasing non-agricultural employment is not conducive to food output increase. Abebaw et al. 9 investigated the impact of rural outmigration on food security in Ethiopia, and the results showed that rural outmigration significantly increased the daily calorie intake per adult by approximately 22%, reducing the gap and severity of food poverty by 7% and 4%, respectively.

Climate change. There is no consensus on the impact of climate change on food security. The majority of scholars assert that climate change will have significant negative effects on the availability, accessibility, and stability of food. Bijay et al. 10 argued that the ongoing global climate change has caused a range of issues, including increased carbon dioxide, frequent droughts, and temperature fluctuations, which pose significant obstacles to pest management, consequently impeding increased food production. Muhammad et al. 11 concluded through empirical analysis that climate change has a substantial adverse impact on irrigation water, agriculture, and rural livelihoods, and the latter three have a significant positive correlation with food security, suggesting that climate change is detrimental to food security. Atuoye et al. 12 examined the influence of gender, migration, and climate change on food security, and their findings revealed that as global climate changes, the impact of controlling carbon emissions on non-migrant food insecurity in Tanzania is reduced, while it exacerbates the impact on migrant food insecurity. However, some scholars contend that climate change can improve agricultural production conditions in certain regions, thereby facilitating increased food production and positively impacting food security 13 , 14 .

Government policy. Bizikova et al. 15 evaluated 73 intervention policies in a sample of 66 publications, of which 49 intervention policies had a positive impact on food security, 7 intervention policies had a negative impact, and 17 intervention policies had no impact. Chengyou et al. 16 used data such as mutual aid funds of impoverished villages in China to evaluate the effect of agricultural subsidies, and the empirical conclusion pointed out that agricultural subsidies can improve farmers' willingness to plant food, promote farmers in impoverished areas to increase the planting area, and help farmers improve their own food production capacity and economic income. Na et al. 17 proposed that food subsidies can increase the working time of part-time farmers in agricultural work, especially in food planting, and promote farmers to better switch between non-agricultural work and agricultural work. This subsidy effect is conducive to maintaining sufficient supply and sustainable development of food production.

The existing literature studies food security from different perspectives and draws reasonable conclusions and policy recommendations, but it fails to analyze the issue of food security under the comprehensive effect of resource endowment, climate change and government policy. Based on this, this paper proposes the Entropy Window two-stage DDF to measure the efficiency of hunger eradication, food security and improving nutrition in 29 provinces of China under the influence of exogenous variable rainfall. From the perspective of food security, the impact of resource endowment, climate change and government policy on food security is comprehensively considered. In addition, in terms of climate change, different from the existing research focusing on the negative effects of high temperature, low temperature and drought on food production, this paper focuses on the impact of extreme changes in rainfall on food security, providing a certain complement to the existing literature on food security research.

Research methods

The evolution of DEA methods has seen many discussions of the dynamic DEA model. Färe and Grosskopf 18 first established the concept of dynamic DEA, devised a form of dynamic analysis, and then proposed a delayed lag (carryover) variable for the dynamic model. Tone and Tsutsui 19 then extended it to a dynamic DEA approach based on weighted relaxation, including four types of connected activities: (1) desired (good); (2) undesired (bad); (3) discretionary (free); and (4) non-discretionary (fixed). Battese and Rao 20 and Battese et al. 21 next demonstrated that it is possible to compare the technical efficiencies of different groups using the Meta-frontier model. Portela and Thanassoulis 22 proposed a convex Meta-frontier concept that can take into account the technology of all groups, the state-of-the-art level of technological production, as well as the communication between groups and can be further extended to improve business performance. O’Donnell et al. 23 proposed a Meta-frontier model for defining technical efficiency using an output distance function, which accurately calculates group and Meta-frontier technical efficiencies and finds that the level of technology of all groups is superior to the level of technology of any one group.

In this paper, the evaluation performance based on DDF is better, which can provide more accurate estimation results. Therefore, this paper modifies the traditional DDF model, combines Dynamic DEA with Network Structure 19 , 24 and Entropy method 25 , and considers exogenous issues to construct Meta Entropy Two-Stage Dynamic DDF Under an Exogenous DEA Model in order to measure the efficiency of hunger eradication, food security, and improving nutrition in 29 provinces of China under the influence of rainfall.

The entropy method

In this model, the stage 2 (Hunger eradication and improving nutrition of sustainable stage) output item “Improving nutrition” covers four detailed indicators: (1) stunting rate of children under 5 years old; (2) malnutrition rate of children under 5 years old; (3) obesity rate of children under 5 years old; and (4) newborn visit rate. If these detailed indicators are put into DEA, then there will be problems that cannot be solved. Therefore, this model first uses the Entropy method and then finds the weights and output values of four detailed indicators of improving nutrition in stage 2. The Entropy method mainly includes the following four steps.

Step 1: Standardize the data of the four detailed indicators of improving nutrition in stage 2 in 29 provinces of China.

Here, \(r_{mn}\) is the standardized value of the \(n\) th indicator of the \(m\) th province; \(\mathop {\min }\limits_{m} x_{mn}\) is the minimum value of the \(n\) th indicator of the \(m\) th province; and \(\mathop {\max }\limits_{m} x_{mn}\) is the maximum value of the \(n\) th indicator of the \(m\) th province.

Step 2: Add up the standardized values of the four detailed indicators of improving nutrition in stage 2.

Here, \(P_{mn}\) represents the ratio of the standardized value of the \(n\) th indicator to the sum of the standardized values for the \(m\) th province.

Step 3: Calculate the entropy value ( \({\text{e}}_{{\text{n}}}\) ) for the \({\text{n}}\) th indicator.

Step 4: Calculate the weight of the \({\text{n}}\) th indicator \(\left( {{\text{w}}_{{\text{n}}} } \right)\) .

Using the above steps, we are able to find the weights and output values of the four detailed indicators of improving nutrition in stage 2.

Meta entropy two-stage dynamic DDF under an exogenous DEA model

Suppose there are two stages in each \(t \left( {t = 1, \ldots ,T} \right)\) time periods. In each time period, there are two stages, including agricultural production stage (stage 1), hunger eradication and improving nutrition of sustainable stage (stage 2).

In stage 1, there are \(b \left( {b = 1, \ldots ,B} \right)\) inputs \(x1_{bj}^{t}\) , producing \(a \left( {a = 1, \ldots , A} \right)\) desirable outputs \(y1_{aj}^{t}\) and \(o \left( {o = 1, \ldots , O} \right)\) undesirable outputs \(U1_{oj}^{t}\) . Stage 2 takes \(d \left( {d = 1, \ldots , D} \right)\) inputs \(x2_{dj}^{t}\) , creating \(s \left( {s = 1, \ldots ., S} \right)\) desirable outputs \(y2_{sj}^{t}\) and \(c \left( {c = 1, \ldots ., C} \right)\) undesirable outputs \(U2_{cj}^{t}\) ; the intermediate outputs connecting stages 1 and 2 are \(z_{hj}^{t} \left( {h = 1, \ldots ,H} \right)\) ; the carry-over variable is \(c_{lj}^{t} \left( {l = 1, \ldots ,L} \right)\) ; the exogenous variable is \(E_{vj}^{t} \left( {v = 1, \ldots ,V} \right)\) .

Figure  1 illustrates the framework diagram of the model. In stage 1, the input variables are agricultural employment, effective irrigation area and total agricultural water use, and the output variables are total agricultural output value and agricultural wastewater discharge. In stage 2, the input variable is local financial medical and health expenditure, and the output variables are the number of foodborne disease patients, the number of iodine deficiency disease patients, and improving nutrition. The link between stage 1 and stage 2 is the intermediate output: total agricultural output value. And the exogenous variable is rainfall.

Model framework.

Under the frontier, the DMU can choose the final output that is most favorable to its maximum value, so the efficiency of the decision unit under the common boundary can be solved by the following linear programming procedure.

Objective function

Efficiency of \({\text{DMUi}}\) is:

Here, \({\text{w}}_{1}^{{\text{t}}}\) and \({\text{w}}_{2}^{{\text{t}}}\) are the weights for stages 1 and stage 2, and \({ }\theta_{1}^{{\text{t}}}\) and \(\theta_{2}^{{\text{t}}}\) are the efficiency values for stages 1 and stage 2.

Subject to:

Stage 1: Agricultural production stage

Here, \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{bi}}1}}^{{\text{t}}}\) , \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{ai}}1}}^{{\text{t}}}\) , and \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{oi}}1}}^{{\text{t}}}\) denote the direction vectors associated with stage 1 inputs, desirable outputs, and undesirable outputs.

Stage 2: Hunger eradication and improving nutrition of sustainable stage

Here, \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{di}}2}}^{{\text{t}}}\) , \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{ci}}2}}^{{\text{t}}}\) , and \({\text{q}}_{{{\text{hi}}\left( {1,2} \right)}}^{{\text{t}}}\) denote the direction vectors associated with stage 2 inputs, undesirable outputs, and the intermediate outputs connecting stages 1 and 2.

The link of two periods

The exogenous variables

From the above results, the overall efficiency, the efficiency in each period, the efficiency in each stage, the efficiency in each stage in each period are obtained.

Input, desirable output, and undesirable output efficiencies

The disparity between the actual input–output indicators and the ideal input–output indicators under optimal efficiency represents the potential for efficiency improvement in terms of input and output orientation. This paper chooses the ratio of actual input–output values to the computed optimal input–output values as the efficiency measure for the input–output indicators. The relationship between the optimal value, actual value, and indicator efficiency is as follows:

If the actual input and undesirable output equals the optimal input and undesirable output, then the efficiencies of that input and undesirable output are equal to 1 and known as efficient. However, if the actual input exceeds the optimal input, then the efficiency of that input indicator is less than 1, which denotes being inefficient.

If the actual desirable output equals the optimal desirable output, then the efficiency of that desirable output is equal to 1 and is referred to as efficient. However, if the actual desirable output is less than the optimal desirable output, then the efficiency of that desirable output indicator is less than 1 and is considered inefficient. ME (Mean Efficiency) reflects the average efficiency of a certain region throughout the study period, with higher values indicating higher efficiency in that region.

Empirical study

Comparative analysis of total efficiency values considering and not considering exogenous variables.

As shown in Fig.  2 , in terms of the average total efficiency value for each region, without considering the exogenous variable rainfall, from 2016 to 2020, the average total efficiency values of the eastern, central, and western regions show a pattern of “eastern > western > central” in descending order. With the exogenous variable rainfall taken into account, the average total efficiency values for each region for each year were greater than the corresponding average total efficiency values without taking into account the exogenous variable rainfall, which may be attributed to the fact that rainfall plays a key role in irrigating the farmland and replenishing the soil moisture, which is an important factor in the process of agricultural production, and that the addition of rainfall has a more pronounced marginal effect on the increase in the total efficiency values. With the exogenous variable rainfall taken into account, the average total efficiency values for each region in each year are larger than the corresponding average total efficiency values without taking into account the exogenous variable rainfall, indicating that there is more room for improvement in the average total efficiency values without taking rainfall into account than in the efficiency values with rainfall taken into account. Except for 2016, when the average total efficiency value of the western region was greater than that of the eastern region and the central region, the average total efficiency values of the eastern, central, and western regions from 2017 to 2020 also showed a pattern of “eastern > western > central” from largest to smallest. It can be concluded that whether or not the exogenous variable rainfall is taken into account, the eastern region has a better overall efficiency in agricultural production and achieving food security than the western and central regions due to its better agricultural infrastructure, good economic base, and better educated labor force.

Average efficiency by region from 2016 to 2020.

The three regions of the East, Central and West maintain a similar fluctuating upward trend. The average efficiency in the eastern and western regions is relatively high, and the five-year fluctuation interval is small, ranging from 0.75 to 0.85. After considering the exogenous variable rainfall, the average total efficiency value in the central region increased from 0.62 to 0.66. However, compared with the eastern and western regions, the total efficiency in the central region is still at a lower level and the five-year fluctuation interval is larger, between 0.55 and 0.70, with the largest fluctuation interval in the average efficiency in 2017–2018, at − 0.11. This may be due to the downsizing of grain sowing area under the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, leading to a small decline in the total national grain output in 2018, which in turn affects the level of efficiency in eradicating hunger, guaranteeing food security and improving nutrition. From this, it can be concluded that the eastern and western regions should give full play to their original advantages and promote the modernization and sustainable development of agricultural production in order to accelerate the achievement of the three major goals of eradicating hunger, guaranteeing food security and improving nutrition, while the central region still has more room for improvement and needs to further play the role of agricultural policies to alleviate the people’s worries about food.

Table 1 Average efficiency by province and city from 2016 to 2020 demonstrates the average efficiency values for each province and city from 2016 to 2020 when rainfall is considered and not considered. From the point of view of the annual average total efficiency by province, after considering the exogenous variable rainfall, the efficiency value of most provinces has been improved. The average efficiency has also been improved from 0.6134 to 0.6189. Among them, the efficiency value of Qinghai increases from 0.8167 to 1, and the ranking also rises from 11th to 1st place. Qinghai is deep inland, with less rainfall throughout the year, and its agricultural and animal husbandry production is more sensitive to the changes of rainfall, and the addition of exogenous variable rainfall makes the average total efficiency more accurately portrayed, and achieves the DEA validity. Shandong’s ranking drops from 9 to 11th after considering the exogenous variable rainfall. As a major agricultural province, Shandong’s food production will be seriously affected by persistent heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events, which indicates that Shandong needs to take measures to strengthen the ability of its agricultural production to cope with extreme precipitation.

Two-stage average efficiency analysis

The average efficiency values of the two stages in both cases of considering exogenous variable rainfall and not considering exogenous variable rainfall are very similar, indicating that exogenous variable rainfall does not have much effect on the efficiency of stage 1 and stage 2, and therefore only the specific case with exogenous variable rainfall is discussed. Figures  3 and 4 show the efficiency values for Stage 1 and Stage 2 for each province and city for the years 2016–2020 when rainfall is considered. As shown in Fig.  3 , the difference between the efficiency values for Stage 1 and Stage 2 is still relatively significant. The efficiency of agricultural production in Stage 1 is significantly higher than that of hunger elimination, food security and nutritional improvement in Stage 2, and the fluctuation is relatively smooth, which indicates that there is still much room for improvement in China’s food production in terms of hunger elimination, food security and nutritional improvement, and that how to develop high-quality and high-efficiency agriculture and increase the output of food units is an urgent problem to be solved by each province.

Comparison of the average efficiency of the two phases by province from 2016 to 2020.

Average efficiency values for the two phases in each province from 2016 to 2020.

Specifically, there are large gaps in the efficiency of agricultural production in China's provinces, which can be roughly categorized into three types: the first type has an efficiency value of 1, realizing the DEA is effective, and is filled in green in Fig.  4 ; the second type has an efficiency value between 1 and the average, and is filled in yellow in Fig.  4 ; and the third type has an efficiency value below the average, and is filled in red in Fig.  4 .

In the first stage, the first category is Shanghai, Shandong, Tianjin, Beijing and other 15 provinces, whose agricultural production efficiency values are all 1, at the meta-frontier, and these provinces rely on a solid economic foundation and sound agricultural infrastructure to realize the optimal efficiency of effective inputs and outputs; the second category is Guangxi, Hubei, Sichuan, and Liaoning, whose agricultural production efficiencies are higher than the national average and close to the meta-frontier; the third category consists of 10 provinces such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, etc., whose economic development is relatively slow, meteorological conditions are poor, agricultural production is susceptible to meteorological disasters, and the efficiency of agricultural production is below the average level, among which the value of Gansu’s agricultural production efficiency is the lowest, 0.496.

In the second stage, the first category includes seven provinces, including Yunnan, Tianjin, Beijing, and Ningxia, which either have higher economic levels or better climatic conditions, and have the highest efficiency in eradicating hunger, achieving food security, and improving nutrition, with an efficiency value of 1; the second category includes eight provinces, including Shanghai, Chongqing, Jilin, and Shaanxi, which have an efficiency in eradicating hunger, achieving food security, and improving nutrition higher than the national average, and are close to the meta-frontier; the third category includes 14 provinces, including Fujian, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi, which are below the national average, among which Sichuan has the lowest efficiency value of 0.1, which is evident that Sichuan, as a “Heavenly Grain Silo,” is more likely to speed up the realization of mechanization and digital development to improve comprehensive grain production capacity.

In summary, provinces with high efficiency values in agricultural production and in eradicating hunger, achieving food security and improving nutrition can be categorized into two groups, one of which is the developed and coastal provinces with good economic and climatic conditions, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Hainan, can enhance agricultural sustainable efficiency and actively promote the sustainable development of the agricultural economy; the other category is the provinces with relatively backward economic development, including Yunnan, Ningxia, Qinghai, Heilongjiang and other central and western regions, although their development is relatively late and low, they have unique climatic conditions, geographic conditions, ecological conditions, and other resource advantages, which bring opportunities for sustainable agricultural development in the central and western regions. As for the provinces with lower efficiency values for agricultural production and hunger eradication, reaching food security and improving nutrition, they are not only affected by the level of economic development and ecological conditions such as climate and environment, but also by the level of urbanization, such as Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other eastern coastal provinces with a high level of urbanization will also face pressure on the supply of agricultural products as the sown area of crops continues to decrease due to a combination of factors such as the occupation of arable land by construction sites as well as abandonment of land.

Comparative analysis of output indicator efficiency in the regions

Taking rainfall as an exogenous variable into account, the efficiency of the number of foodborne diseases patients and improving nutrition showed a higher pattern in the eastern and western regions and a lower pattern in the central region. Table 2 shows the efficiency values of each output indicator for 2016–2020. From 2016 to 2020, the efficiency of these two output indicators in the eastern and western regions showed an upward trend, while that in the central region showed a downward trend. It shows that the contribution of agricultural production to food security in the eastern and western regions is small, and more perfect institutional measures should be formulated to ensure food security; the contribution of agricultural production to improving nutrition in the central region is relatively small, and corresponding health expenditures need to be increased to improve people's own nutritional supplements. In terms of the efficiency of the number of iodine deficiency disease patients, the efficiency in the eastern and central regions was low and showed a downward trend from 2016 to 2020, while the efficiency in the western region was high and the fluctuation was relatively small. As people in the eastern and central regions can easily buy kelp, laver and other iodine-rich foods, local residents eat iodine-rich food at high frequency and in large amounts, while in the western region, which is far from the sea, daily eating may not meet the human body's daily demand for iodine. Therefore, in order to reduce the incidence of iodine deficiency diseases caused by geographical location and dietary habits, governments in the western region need to speed up the opening of transportation channels and purchasing channels for iodized salt and iodine-rich foods.

Conclusions and policy recommendation

The key to sustainable agricultural development lies in the organic integration of ecological sustainability, economic sustainability, and social sustainability, emphasizing the coordination between agroecological production capacity and human development. The conclusions of this paper are as follows.

First, in the total factor efficiency analysis, the average total efficiency values of the eastern, central, and western regions in each year when the exogenous variable rainfall is taken into account are higher than the corresponding average total efficiency values without considering exogenous variable rainfall. This may be due to the fact that rainfall is an important factor in the agricultural production process and the inclusion of rainfall has a more pronounced marginal effect on the increase in the total efficiency value. In addition, there is a certain difference between the average total efficiency values of the eastern and western regions regardless of whether exogenous variable rainfall is considered. Still, the difference is not very large, and all three regions maintain a similar trend of fluctuating upward. However, the average total efficiency value of the central region is still at a lower level compared to the eastern and western regions, and the fluctuations of the eastern and western regions over the 5 years are small, fluctuating between 0.75 and 0.85, while the average efficiency of the central region over the 5 years is low and fluctuates greatly, fluctuating between 0.55 and 0.70, and the fluctuations of the average efficiency in 2017–2018 are the largest, at − 0.11. Besides the average efficiency of the eastern region was slightly lower than that of the western region in 2016, the average efficiency of the three regions generally showed a decreasing hierarchy of eastern, western, and central regions one by one. In terms of the annual average total efficiency of each province, after considering the exogenous variable rainfall, the efficiency values of most provinces have improved, with Qinghai's average total efficiency rising to 1, achieving optimal input–output efficiency.. In contrast, Shandong's average efficiency ranking has declined.

Second, under the condition of considering the exogenous variable rainfall, the efficiency value in stage 1 (agricultural production stage) is significantly higher than the efficiency value in stage 2 (eliminating hunger, achieving food security and improving nutrition), and the fluctuation is relatively smooth, which suggests that China's food production still has a large room for improvement, and that the focus of attention should be different in different stages. Specifically, in stage 1, the provinces with lower agricultural production efficiency values belong to the central and western inland provinces with slower economic development and poorer meteorological conditions, while in stage 2, the provinces with lower efficiency value also include the more economically developed eastern coastal provinces, such as Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc. The rapid population growth in the developed eastern coastal areas, coupled with the impact of the construction of arable land and the impact of a combination of factors such as the abandonment of land, crop sowing area has been decreasing, resulting in per capita arable land area is lower than the national average level. This shows that although the developed eastern coastal provinces have a better foundation for agricultural development, they are also facing enormous pressure on the supply of agricultural products and increasingly fierce competition in the future industrial development.

Third, a comparative analysis of the efficiency of output indicators by region, taking into account the exogenous variable of rainfall, reveals that the efficiency of the number of foodborne diseases patients and improving nutrition are both high in the eastern and western regions and low in the central region and that the efficiency of these two output indicators shows a rising trend in the eastern and western regions and a declining trend in the central region in the period from 2016 to 2020. In terms of the efficiency of the number of iodine deficiency disease patients, the efficiency of the eastern and central regions is low and shows a similar downward trend over the five-year period, while the efficiency of the western region is high and fluctuates relatively little, with no significant trend of change.

Through the above empirical analysis, it can be seen that rainfall, an exogenous variable, has a significant impact on the average efficiency in the eastern, central and western regions. Therefore, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on hunger eradication, food security and improving nutrition. The specific recommendations are as follows:

First, continue to strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure and increase the per capita arable land. All regions, especially the central and western regions, need to continue to increase investment in agriculture, build agricultural infrastructure such as water conservancy facilities, transportation facilities, and electric power facilities, promote the transformation and upgrading of old agricultural infrastructure, help the rapid development of agricultural mechanization in China, further enhance the ability to resist natural disasters, and improve agricultural output and production efficiency. In this way, the contradiction between food production and the growing rigid demand for food can be alleviated.

Second, increase policy support for green agricultural production to ensure China's food security. Due to the developed industry and serious pollution, the eastern region should pay more attention to green agricultural production. Each province shall formulate corresponding subsidy plans for green agricultural production according to the specific conditions of the province, strengthen green technology to lead the green development of agriculture, increase the enthusiasm of farmers to carry out green agricultural production, promote the promotion of green agricultural production, decrease the use of harmful fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, etc., to reduce agricultural pollution, so as to increase the supply of green agricultural products on the market to decrease the prevalence of foodborne diseases.

Third, promote the diversification of agricultural production and enrich people's agricultural product consumption varieties. On the one hand, each province extends local agricultural production varieties according to climate conditions and resources, rationally layout the supply structure of agricultural products, and increase policies to encourage farmers to carry out diversified agricultural production. On the other hand, some regions are limited by resource endowments and cannot expand the types of agricultural production, so it is necessary to speed up the construction of infrastructure such as logistics and preservation, improve the system of connecting production and marketing of agricultural products, enrich the "vegetable basket" of people in these regions with poor agricultural resources, and meet people's diversified consumption demand for agricultural products. In addition, nutrition guidance, publicity and education should be strengthened to raise people's awareness of rational diet and nutritious diet.

Data availability

All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article [and its supplementary information files].

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School of Marxism of Fujian Police College, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350007, People’s Republic of China

SiMan Jiang

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Shuyue Chen, Qiqi Xiao & Zhong Fang

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SM.J and QQ.X. wrote the main manuscript text, SY.C and Z.F prepared figures and methodology. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Jiang, S., Chen, S., Xiao, Q. et al. Research on food security issues considering changes in rainfall. Sci Rep 14 , 19698 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70803-x

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Received : 16 April 2024

Accepted : 21 August 2024

Published : 24 August 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70803-x

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