malawi case study geography

Climate Crisis, Displacement, and the Right to Stay

• Climate Displacement
• Case Studies

Introduction to Malawi

Malawi is a landlocked country located in southeastern Africa, with a population of 19.9 million 1 , of which 82 percent is rural. 2 The country has an extremely low GDP per capita of $634.8, with a high infant mortality rate of 31 per 1000 live births 3 , a low life expectancy of 64 years, and a staggering 70% of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day. 4 Malawi’s climate varies by geography between savanna and monsoon-influenced humid tropical climate, and over the past twenty years, the country has been experiencing an increased frequency, intensity, and magnitude of flood, drought and epidemics. 5 Agriculture is the mainstay of the Malawian economy, employing over 76% of the working population 6 and contributing around 22.7% of the country's GDP 7 , after the service sector. The third largest lake in Africa covering one fifth of Malawi’s total area, Lake Malawi, and the Shire river basin are critical for supporting more than 90% of the nation’s hydropower and irrigation, fisheries livelihood, and domestic water supply. 8 Malawi as the world’s most tobacco-dependent country earns 52% of its export revenue from raw tobacco. 9 During Malawi’s colonial period, tobacco production in Nyasaland (now Malawi) increased by about 75% annually between 1890 and 1910 10 , and this has shaped the country’s continued reliance on a narrow range of export-oriented cash crops and a vulnerability to global market fluctuations.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

In Malawi, flooding and storms are the major causes of climate-induced displacement. Between 2008 and 2021, 55 disaster events were reported, with flood displacing over 500,000 people, and storm displacing over 140,000 people in the landlocked nation. 11 In 2022, five back to back tropical storms and cyclones wreaked havoc in Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique, displacing nearly 600,000 people, many of the same people who were devastated by Cyclone Idai in 2019. 12 Then the country’s deadliest climate disaster, cyclone Freddy, struck southern Malawi in early 2023, devastating the communities and displacing half a million people while adding further pressure on an already strained healthcare system. 13 In the past four decades, the incidence of natural hazards has been on the rise in Malawi, where infant mortality is high, life expectancy is low, and a high proportion of the population live in poverty. Between 1980 and 2000, there were 8 separate years of floods, 3 separate years of epidemics, and 3 separate years of droughts. 14 However, these numbers increased to 14, 7 and 5 respectively between 2000 and 2020. 15

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

With a GDP of $12.63 billion 16 , Malawi is predominantly an agricultural-based economy, and the majority of its population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Malawi is the increased frequency and intensity of droughts, which is leading to crop failures, food shortages, and an increased risk of waterborne diseases. Over 6.4 million people were affected during the 20202-2021 production season as a result of prolonged dry spells followed by inconsistent mid-season rainfall. 17 Economic model estimates suggest that climate change impacts cause a GDP loss of 5% per year. 18 In southern Malawi, where one third of the country’s maize is grown, there are 12% annual losses in maize production due to floods. 19 On 5th December, 2022, the government of Malawi declared an ongoing cholera outbreak with a consistently high case fatality rate above 3% as a public health emergency, with cyclone Freddy exacerbating such crises. 20 The climate crisis also puts at risk the power sector in Malawi, where only 14.9% of the population have access to electricity 21 while the remaining depend on traditional biomass and other fossil fuels, resulting in deforestation. The hydropower plants in Malawi’s Shire river generates 98% of the country’s electricity, but severe drought as a result of deficient rainfall seasons slashed power production by more than 50% in 2016 22 and 2017 23 , and by more than 80% in 2020. 24

Mapping Resilience and Migration Pathways

Malawi, constituting 0.25 percent of the world's populations 16 , is responsible for less than 0.005 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission. 25 And yet, the country is shouldering an extreme burden from the climate devastation in the form of increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events. Malawi pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 6% greenhouse gas emissions relative to Business As Usual (BAU) by  2040 and an additional 45% with substantial international support and funding. 26 The adaptation measures in Malawi's Nationally Determined Contribution fall under three primary pillars; (i) institutional framework, (ii) knowledge, technology and financing and (iii) resilience of the most vulnerable. 27 The aim is to create a conducive atmosphere that fosters the integration of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA), enhance data and information management while increasing accessibility to technology and adaptation financing, and implement adaptation measures targeted at strengthening the resilience of the most at-risk Malawians. 26 In 2021, Malawi launched the long term multi sectoral vision, ‘Malawi 2063’, to transform the nation into an “inclusively wealthy” and “self-reliant industrialized” “upper-middle-income” country by the year 2063. 28 These complex measures focus on ensuring environmental sustainability while building a strong economy, characterized by competitive manufacturing, agriculture and mining industry, establishing an effective governance system, and developing globally competitive economic infrastructures. 29

Necessary Changes

The aggravating impacts of climate change on Malawi underscore the urgency for an equitable transition that takes into consideration the needs of communities at the forefront of this global emergency. It is critical to build the climate and economic resilience of Malawi’s vulnerable farming communities through a diversified economy, eliminating the country’s reliance on tobacco farming, a damaging practice imposed during colonialism that exploits child labor 30 , and drives deforestation, degradation of soil quality, and contamination of water resources in many regions. 31 Additionally, the recurring climate shocks in Malawi are obstructing the country's socio-economic progress, trapping millions of people in poverty for decades on end.  It is a grave reminder that the countries least responsible for causing climate change are the worst affected by its devastating impacts, and these nations do not have the requisite resources to build their adaptive capacity and climate resilience. Between 2008 and 2021, floods and storms have uprooted and internally displaced 667,678 people across Malawi. 32 Thus, alongside supporting a diversified and sustainable economy in Malawi, it is critical that international efforts be ramped up in order to curb the detrimental impacts of increased flooding, drought and epidemics on the lives and livelihood of Malawians.  

• 1 “Population, total – Malawi.” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=MW .
• 2 “Rural Population (% of total population) – Malawi.” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=MW .
• 3 “Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) - Malawi.”  The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=MW .
• 4 “Malawi,”  The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023,  https://data.worldbank.org/country/MW .
• 5 “Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Malawi,” The World Bank Group, accessed April 15, 2023. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/malawi/vulnerabili… .
• 6 “Employment in agriculture  – Malawi.” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=MW .
• 7 “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) - Malawi.” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=MW .
• 8 Bhave Ajay G., Conway Declan, Dessai Suraje, Dougill Andrew J. and Mkwambisi David. “Stress-testing development pathways under a changing climate: water-energy-food security in the lake Malawi-Shire river system.” The Royal Society. February 28, 2022, accessed April 23, 2023.  https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0134 .
• 9 “Shifting from tobacco growing to alternatives in Malawi? A qualitative analysis of policy and perspectives” Health Policy Plan. August 2020, accessed April 23, 2023. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8060983/ .
• 10 Smith, Julia and Lee, Kelley. “From colonisation to globalisation: a history of state capture by the tobacco industry in Malawi,” Review of African Political Economy. May 11, 2018, accessed April 23, 2023.  https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2018.1431213 .
• 11 “Malawi,” Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, accessed April 24, 2023. https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/malawi .
• 12  “More than half a million displacements across south-eastern Africa as five tropical storms strike in two months,” Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, accessed April 24, 2023. https://www.internal-displacement.org/media-centres/more-than-half-a-mi… .
• 13 Chavula, James, “Cholera in the midst of a floods emergency,” United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), April 05, 2023, accessed April 26, 2023.  https://www.unicef.org/malawi/stories/cholera-midst-floods-emergency .
• 14 “Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Malwai,” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/malawi/vulnerabili… .
• 15 Ibid (i).
• 16 a b “Malawi,”  The World Bank.
• 17 “Malawi receives US$14.2 million drought recovery insurance payout,” ReliefWeb, June 29, 2022, accessed April 25, 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/malawi/malawi-receives-us142-million-droug… .
• 18 “Nationally Determined Contributions,” Republic of Malawi, July 2021, accessed April 25, 2023. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/202206/Malawi%20Updated%20ND… .
• 19 “Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Malawi,” The World Bank.
• 20 “Cholera - Malawi,” World Health Organization, February 9, 2023, accessed April 26, 2023. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON435 .
• 21 “Access to electricity (% of population)  – Malawi.” The World Bank, accessed April 23, 2023. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=MW .
• 22 “The effect of the current rainfalls on the water levels and electricity supply (generation),” Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi Limited (ESCOM), accessed April 26, 2023.  http://www.escom.mw/rainfall-effect-waterlevels.php .
• 23 France-Presse, Agence, “Malawi suffers blackouts as drought exposes 98% reliance on hydro power,” The Guardian, December 7, 2017, accessed April 27, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/08/malawi-blackouts-drought-… .
• 24 Bernstein, Sharon, Spring, Jake and Stanway, David, Stanway “Droughts shrink hydropower, pose risk to global push to clean energy,” Reuters, August 13, 2021, accessedApril 27, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/inconvenient-trut… .
• 25 “Malawi: CO2 Country Profile,” Our World in Data, accessed April 27, 2023. https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/malawi .
• 26 a b “Nationally Determined Contributions,” Republic of Malawi.
• 27 Ibid (ii).
• 28 “Malawi 2063 Vision,” Republic of Malawi, January 19, 2021, accessed April 27, 2023. https://www.undp.org/malawi/publications/mw2063-vision .
• 29 Ibid (iii).
• 30 Ramos, Athena K., “Child Labor in Global Tobacco Production: A Human Rights Approach to an Enduring Dilemma,” Health and Human Rights, December 2018, accessed April 30, 2023. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6293346/ .
• 31 Smith, Julia and Fang, Jennifer, “Structural barriers to tobacco diversification for sustainable development,” Sustainable Development. August 03, 2020, accessed April 30, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2106 .
• 32 “Malawi,” Internal Displacement Monitoring Center.

Malawi at a glance

• Storms: tropical storms (cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons), extratropical/winter storms, local storms (tornadoes, blizzards and snowstorms, sand storms, hail storms, lightning)
• Floods: land-borne or riverine floods (caused by heavy rains, snow melt, and breaking of banks), sea-borne or coastal floods (caused by storm surges and breaking of levees), flash floods (caused by snow melt run-off, dam bursts and sudden water release)
• Extreme Temperatures: cold snaps and extreme winter conditions, heat waves
• Wildfires: brush, forest, grass and savannah
• Dry mass movement: rock falls, landslides, avalanches, sudden subsidence and sinkholes
• Wet mass movements: landslides, avalanches and sudden subsidence

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Development Dynamics - Malawi Case Study

Subject: Geography

Age range: 7-11

Resource type: Worksheet/Activity

Last updated

28 June 2023

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Two part lesson series as part of the Edexcel Development Dynamics module.

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Exploring the Politics of Land Reforms in Malawi : A Case Study of the Community Based Rural Land Development Programme ( CBRLDP )

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• Political Science, Environmental Science, Geography

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The design and implementation of customary land reforms in central malawi, whose security deepening social conflict over ‘customary’ land in the shadow of land tenure reform in malawi, access to land, growth and poverty reduction in malawi ∗.

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Malawi case study

• The economy and global superpowers
• Created by: Amwangi
• Created on: 05-03-17 18:51
• one of the poorest countries in the world
• 2006 - HDI = 2005
• GDP around $170 per head taking into account purchasing power - one of the lowest in the world
• Ranked 165th out of 177 countries
• High import costs - all fuel apart from fuelwood has to be imported
• vulnerable to external factors - drought
• Now one of sub-saharan Africa's most populated countries - 115 people per square kilometre
• Population growth 2.6% per year start of 21st century
• Birth rate start 21st century 5.7 births per woman
• population increased from 9.93 m 1998 census - 13 million 2007
• Eligible for the HIPC initiative but failed to meet IMF conditions- higher than expected government expenditure famine - need to import food
• More to spend on public investments rather than debt.
• Classified as a low income country by world bank
• Life expectancy fallen below 40 years old
• HIV/AIDS big problem in Malawi - 1million + are HIV positive = 90,000 deaths per year
• thought to be 1 million orphans in the country - half which are direct result of deaths from AIDS

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