what is a thesis statement for overpopulation

Overpopulation Essay

500 words essay on overpopulation.

Overpopulation refers to an undesirable condition in which the number of existing human being exceeds the actual carrying capacity of the earth. It has many causes which range from a decline in the death rate to early marriages and more. The overpopulation essay will throw light on this issue.

Ill-Effects of Overpopulation

The ill-effects of overpopulation are quite severe. The first one is that natural resources deplete at a faster level. Our planet can produce only a limited amount of water and food . Thus, overpopulation causes environmental damage including deforestation, pollution, etc.

Similarly, there is the degradation of the environment which happens because of the overuse of resources like coal, oil, natural gases and more. As a result, the quality of air also gets affected in this manner.

In developing countries, overpopulation puts a strain on resources. Thus, it gives rise to conflicts and tension. It also causes more diseases that become harder to control. Next up, we have the issue of unemployment.

Moreover, it rises due to overpopulation. There is more number of people than job opportunities. As a result, unemployment gives rise to crimes like theft and more. We also have pandemics and epidemics which happen due to overpopulation.

It is because overcrowded and unhygienic living gives rise to infectious diseases . Another ill-effect is malnutrition and starvation. When there are scarce resources, these diseases will likely to be on the rise.

Most importantly, we have a shortage of water which makes it tougher for people to get access to clean water. Similarly, lower life expectancy also happens because of the boom in population, especially in less-developed nations.

We also witness faster climate change as nations continue to develop their industrial capacities. Thus, they emit industrial waste which gives rise to global temperatures . It will keep getting worse if things are not checked immediately.

Solutions of Overpopulation

There are many solutions which we may take up to prevent overpopulation. The best measure is family planning to keep the overpopulation check. In order to do that, one can ensure proper spacing between the births of the children.

Further, limiting the number of children as per income and resources must also be important. Similarly, it is essential to increase resources. The government must make the horrors of overpopulation reach the public through the use of media.

Moreover, better education can help implement social change which can curb overpopulation. Next up, knowledge of sex education must be made mandatory in schools so students learn young about everything they need to know.

Most importantly, it is essential to empower women so they can break out of poverty. This way, they can learn about reproductive health and make better decisions. Another solution can be government incentives.

Many governments of countries already have various policies which relate to tax exemptions for curbing overpopulation. For instance, some waive a certain part of income tax for married couples with one or two children.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Conclusion of Overpopulation Essay

All in all, overpopulation is no less than a curse that poses a permanent threat to the development of any country. It is essential to stop the flood of population. In order to do that, one must indulge in proper family planning and creating balance in society for a better world.

FAQ of Overpopulation Essay

Question 1: What is the main cause of overpopulation?

Answer 1: It is believed that the main cause of overpopulation is poverty. When there is a lack of education resource which coupled with high death rates, it results in impoverished areas witnessing large booms in population.

Question 2: How is overpopulation affecting the world?

Answer 2: Overpopulation is affecting the world as it is outpacing the ability of the planet earth to support it. It also has environmental and economic outcomes which range from the impacts of over-farming on global warming.

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• How to Write a Thesis Statement | 4 Steps & Examples

How to Write a Thesis Statement | 4 Steps & Examples

Published on January 11, 2019 by Shona McCombes . Revised on August 15, 2023 by Eoghan Ryan.

A thesis statement is a sentence that sums up the central point of your paper or essay . It usually comes near the end of your introduction .

Your thesis will look a bit different depending on the type of essay you’re writing. But the thesis statement should always clearly state the main idea you want to get across. Everything else in your essay should relate back to this idea.

You can write your thesis statement by following four simple steps:

• Start with a question
• Write your initial answer
• Develop your answer
• Refine your thesis statement

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Table of contents

What is a thesis statement, placement of the thesis statement, step 1: start with a question, step 2: write your initial answer, step 3: develop your answer, step 4: refine your thesis statement, types of thesis statements, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about thesis statements.

A thesis statement summarizes the central points of your essay. It is a signpost telling the reader what the essay will argue and why.

The best thesis statements are:

• Concise: A good thesis statement is short and sweet—don’t use more words than necessary. State your point clearly and directly in one or two sentences.
• Contentious: Your thesis shouldn’t be a simple statement of fact that everyone already knows. A good thesis statement is a claim that requires further evidence or analysis to back it up.
• Coherent: Everything mentioned in your thesis statement must be supported and explained in the rest of your paper.

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The thesis statement generally appears at the end of your essay introduction or research paper introduction .

The spread of the internet has had a world-changing effect, not least on the world of education. The use of the internet in academic contexts and among young people more generally is hotly debated. For many who did not grow up with this technology, its effects seem alarming and potentially harmful. This concern, while understandable, is misguided. The negatives of internet use are outweighed by its many benefits for education: the internet facilitates easier access to information, exposure to different perspectives, and a flexible learning environment for both students and teachers.

You should come up with an initial thesis, sometimes called a working thesis , early in the writing process . As soon as you’ve decided on your essay topic , you need to work out what you want to say about it—a clear thesis will give your essay direction and structure.

You might already have a question in your assignment, but if not, try to come up with your own. What would you like to find out or decide about your topic?

For example, you might ask:

After some initial research, you can formulate a tentative answer to this question. At this stage it can be simple, and it should guide the research process and writing process .

Now you need to consider why this is your answer and how you will convince your reader to agree with you. As you read more about your topic and begin writing, your answer should get more detailed.

In your essay about the internet and education, the thesis states your position and sketches out the key arguments you’ll use to support it.

The negatives of internet use are outweighed by its many benefits for education because it facilitates easier access to information.

In your essay about braille, the thesis statement summarizes the key historical development that you’ll explain.

The invention of braille in the 19th century transformed the lives of blind people, allowing them to participate more actively in public life.

A strong thesis statement should tell the reader:

• Why you hold this position
• What they’ll learn from your essay
• The key points of your argument or narrative

The final thesis statement doesn’t just state your position, but summarizes your overall argument or the entire topic you’re going to explain. To strengthen a weak thesis statement, it can help to consider the broader context of your topic.

These examples are more specific and show that you’ll explore your topic in depth.

Your thesis statement should match the goals of your essay, which vary depending on the type of essay you’re writing:

• In an argumentative essay , your thesis statement should take a strong position. Your aim in the essay is to convince your reader of this thesis based on evidence and logical reasoning.
• In an expository essay , you’ll aim to explain the facts of a topic or process. Your thesis statement doesn’t have to include a strong opinion in this case, but it should clearly state the central point you want to make, and mention the key elements you’ll explain.

If you want to know more about AI tools , college essays , or fallacies make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples or go directly to our tools!

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A thesis statement is a sentence that sums up the central point of your paper or essay . Everything else you write should relate to this key idea.

The thesis statement is essential in any academic essay or research paper for two main reasons:

• It gives your writing direction and focus.
• It gives the reader a concise summary of your main point.

Without a clear thesis statement, an essay can end up rambling and unfocused, leaving your reader unsure of exactly what you want to say.

Follow these four steps to come up with a thesis statement :

• Ask a question about your topic .
• Write your initial answer.
• Develop your answer by including reasons.
• Refine your answer, adding more detail and nuance.

The thesis statement should be placed at the end of your essay introduction .

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Home — Essay Samples — Sociology — Population Growth — Overpopulation, Its Causes And Effects

Overpopulation, Its Causes and Effects

• Categories: Population Growth

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Words: 1510 |

Published: Jan 28, 2021

Words: 1510 | Pages: 3 | 8 min read

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Population Growth Essay Writing Guide

Academic writing

Essay paper writing

Working on a population essay or research paper? We understand the struggle. Therefore, we have prepared the list of the greatest topics for you to choose from as well as useful tips that will help you submit an impeccable work.

Population essay topics

• Essay on the principle of population
• Essay on population definition
• Population genetics essay
• 21 st century global population essay
• Population development essay
• Essay on the history of population growth
• Essay on population crisis
• Agricultural revolution and population growth essay
• Short essay on world population becoming smarter
• Aging population opinion essay
• Essay on population explosion
• Essay about population problem in Asia
• Relationship between national wealth and population health essay
• Population and environment essay
• Essay on increasing population
• Cause and effect essay on population growth: What is the reason of current overpopulation issue?
• Importance of population education essay
• Effective means of population control essay
• Population control argumentative essay
• Can we solve overpopulation problems essay
• Effect of population on environment essay
• How to control population essay

Tips for writing an essay on population

• Make an outline. Once you do your research, create a well-detailed plan where you include all the essential points and ideas for each paragraph of your paper. You can use the example from the section below and build on it with the information you have found.  
• Research carefully. Try using Google Scholar to search for articles and books on the topic if you have hard times determining which sources are credible.  
• Don’t fake your references or just copy information. Nowadays, there are various tools for checking works for plagiarism. Therefore, do not put your academic reputation at risk – use real sources and your own words when describing what the author was writing about.
• Mind your language. Of course, an essay is not a scientific article for a reputable journal, but you still need to be very careful with the word choice. Contractions or slang would not be appropriate here.
• Provide specific examples and numbers where applicable. For instance, essay writing on population explosion would require you to indicate where, when, and how many people were born in certain time periods and why it happened.
• Proofread your writing. This will help you to avoid submitting a work full of mistakes, which will inevitably lower your mark.

Essay outline

• Introduction.

Start with a hook phrase, which can be a question, a quote, or just an interesting fact. After that, write a few sentences explaining why your topic is important and necessary to research. The main point of an essay on population should be clearly stated in the last sentence of the paper – a thesis statement. Give a brief overview of the points you are going to discuss but do not go into the details – you will be able to do it in the body of the work.

Depending on the word limit set for the assignment, the body of your paper might be divided into a few sections with distinct headings. Each section or paragraph should start with the introduction of the idea you are going to discuss. Next, you will have to provide some factual information to support it, and explain your own opinion if applicable. In the end, it would be necessary to sum up what you have discussed and transition into the next paragraph.

• Population essay conclusion.

In the final paragraph, restate the thesis and the main ideas that were reviewed in the body of the paper. You cannot introduce any new facts in the conclusion – only synthesize what has already been discussed. Finish your essay by proving that you have accomplished the purpose of writing the paper or leave the reader with some idea to think about further.

Population research paper topics

• Research paper about homelessness population
• Aging population research paper
• Religion and overpopulation
• Human population growth research paper
• Birth control and women’s human rights
• The impact of overpopulation on the wildlife
• India population crisis
• The impact of overpopulation on the environment
• Bangladesh population crisis
• Population, migration, and urbanization
• Global warming and overpopulation: Where is the link?
• The issue of food and water shortage
• Statistics of population changes research paper
• The effects of population growth on the economy

Writing a research paper

• Choose a narrow topic. It is rather hard to write a research paper about population in general, as the topic is really vast. Instead, you may concentrate on some population issues, trends, or other more specific topics, which can be studied thoroughly.
• Be careful with citations. In your research paper, you will need to include and cite a lot of information. Learn how to do it according to the style you stick to and cite all factual data taken from other sources.
• Check a few good population research paper examples. If it is hard for you to visualize how your research paper should look like, find a few sample works. Pay attention to how the text is outlined, what information is cited, how transitions are used, and how the info is presented in general. Try to find research paper examples about population control, overpopulation crisis, shortage of resources, and other related topics to understand what points might work for your own paper.
• Develop a strong thesis statement. It should be short, to-the-point, and consistent. You have to summarize your main claim in one or two sentences in such a way that it will be clear and interesting for your audience.
• Avoid filler phrases. “In conclusion,” “needless to say,” and all the other parenthetic words do not bring any value to your writing. Instead, try to come up with meaningful transitions to move from one paragraph to another one smoothly.

Research paper outline

• Introduction
• Methodology
• Literature review
• Results/Findings

You may also be asked to add an abstract before the intro to give your readers a quick overview of the paper. Depending on the length of the text, it might be necessary to add a table of contents to guide your audience on where to find certain information. If there are some figures that you wanted to include in the paper but they take too much space, you can refer to them in the text but insert them into the appendices section after the reference page.

Research questions about population

Here are some of the research paper questions about population that you may choose to answer in your paper:

• What are the major negative consequences of overpopulation?
• Why some countries are overpopulated while others are underpopulated?
• How fast is the population increasing today compared to in the past?
• What factors influence current population trends?
• What may the population trends be in 50 years?
• Are we on the verge of food and water shortage?
• Is population growth still an issue?
• How many people can Earth support?
• Why should we be concerned about current population growth rates?
• Is religion an obstacle to population stabilization?

Facts for a research paper or essay on population

• In general, more than 107 billion people were born in the history of humanity. Thus, 6.5% of all people born in the history of humankind live on Earth today.
• In 2009, for the first time in history, an urban population was equal to a rural one amounting to 3.4 billion people. It is expected that in the future, an increasing part of the world population will be represented by citizens (that is, the urban population will continue to grow faster than the world population as a whole), which is confirmed by the latest data.
• In 2010, about 60% of the world’s population lived in Asia, 15.5% - in Africa, and 10.4% - in Europe. In 2050, according to the UN forecast, more than half of the world’s population will live in Asia, 25% in Africa, 8.2% in Latin America, 7.4% in Europe, and 4.7% in North America.
• The largest state in terms of population is China. After 2025, India is likely to become a leader. Until 1991, USSR had the third-largest population. After its disintegration, the US took its place. Indonesia and Brazil occupy the fourth and fifth places. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Russia occupy the sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth places, respectively.
• As the UN report indicates, by the end of this century, the world’s population will be more than two times higher in comparison with 2011 and will reach 15 billion people.
• The current population of the planet has doubled since the 1960s. This process is caused by the improvement of the quality of medical care and medical products as well as high fertility in the countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In addition, a certain role was played by the reduction of infant mortality and the increase in life expectancy on all continents of the planet.
• Some experts question the figure of 15 billion inhabitants by the year 2100 proposed by the UN. They are convinced that the population will not reach such a catastrophic scale if appropriate measures are taken.
• The author of the first essay on population was a popular economist Thomas Robert Malthus. His main work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, played a remarkable role in the development of economic science and demography.
• In the mid-60s of the 20th century, humanity first paid attention to the problem of overpopulation and the depletion of resources. The community of the world’s largest businessmen, politicians, and public figures, united by the idea of ​​ preserving the natural environment on Earth have created a so-called Club of Rome. This initiated a large-scale research to find ways to curb the crisis.

Environmental issues

While writing an essay on the ecological effects of increased population, you may describe the current state of things:

• The situation in the field of renewable resources deteriorates. Scientists warn that very soon, we will experience a water, wood, fish shortage, as well as reduced soil fertility.
• Waste products accumulate and pollute the environment.
• More investment, energy, materials, and labor costs are required to eliminate the negative consequences of using resources, e.g., for sewage treatment, irrigation control, air purification, etc.
• A significant part of the capital, raw materials, energy resources, and labor costs is spent on solving the tasks of the defense industry.
• Investments in human resources decline, and the situation with education and healthcare deteriorates.
• The balance between the use of raw materials, energy resources, and the process of environmental pollution is disturbed.

Problem of population aging

• According to the UN, during 1994-2014, the number of people over 60 years has doubled. In 2014, the number of older adults in the world exceeded the number of children under the age of five.
• Now, in 15 EU countries, above 15% of citizens are at the age of 65 years and higher. The youngest country is Ireland (11.5%), and the oldest one is Sweden (17.5%). However, during the coming decades, the gap will decrease. The elderly group will be joined by generations born during the baby boom period (1946-1964).
• Compared to Western European countries, the United States is a younger state: there are less than 13% of people over 65 years old.
• The causes of population aging are ambiguous. On the one hand, there is a decline in the birth rate, which leads to a smaller number of children and young people, and on the other hand, there is an increase in life expectancy.
• From 1960 to 1990, the number of people of age above 80 years has grown in the EU countries from 5 to 12 million people, that is, by 140%.
• Medical care for the elderly involves additional funding, expanding the network of medical, gerontological institutions, and qualitative restructuring of the health care system.
• The employment of the elderly population and provision of working places for young seniors are required. It is also important to maintain an active life position of the elderly, involve them in public life, and fight against loneliness.

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Overpopulation - List of Essay Samples And Topic Ideas

Overpopulation occurs when the number of people living in a certain area exceeds the carrying capacity of the environment. Essays could delve into the causes and effects of overpopulation, its impact on resource scarcity and environmental degradation, or the policies and strategies for managing population growth. A substantial compilation of free essay instances related to Overpopulation you can find at PapersOwl Website. You can use our samples for inspiration to write your own essay, research paper, or just to explore a new topic for yourself.

Overpopulation – Global Issue

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Introduction The current world population stands 7.6 billion as per the United Nations Statistics, while the human population is projected to clock 10.5 billion in the year 2040 and 12 billion by the year 2050. The current human population growth rate per year 70 million. China has got the highest number of people per unit area, with the total population being 1.2 billion. The African continent has reached the highest population growth rate, which is 6 percent while the lowest […]

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The human population in the world has been growing a an extremely fast rate, but with a growing rate of population, comes with it a potentially fatal problem: overpopulation. Overpopulation is when the environment, or in this case Earth, can no longer support a species due to it not having a sufficient amount of resources to handle the population. While overpopulation is always ultimately going to be a problem, the real issue is when overpopulation is really starting. There are […]

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Overpopulation effects all other aspects of our health and the environment in which we live. There has been more human-caused environmental disgrace in the last few thousands years than ever before, and with the population increasing five times its size in the last 300 years it is no wonder overpopulation has such a staggering impact in all areas of our health. Chronic disease is directly impacted by overpopulation. With the advancement we have in our medicine today compared with past […]

It has to a Boy: Another Dimension of over Population

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Overpopulation and its Effects on Human

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Overpopulation in Asia: Manila

Manila is the thriving capital of the Republic of the Philippines. It's also the densest city on Earth. However, just because Manila is extremely dense doesn't mean the whole country is overpopulated- but what effects are felt from the overpopulation of cities like Manila, and to the country as a whole? How did this city/country get so dense in the first place? And what can we do about it?One effect of the overpopulation in the Philippines is the enormous trade […]

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Essay About Overpopulation We have heard it all that every mammal on Earth instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding around him but the same doesn’t happen with a human. All they know is how to keep multiplying from one area to another. I came across this interesting topic from BBC and as I read more the more, I realized that Human Overpopulation is one of the biggest global issues we are facing at present. It is not only an environmental issue but also associated with the social and economic sustainability aspect. With increased pressure on our planet, we don’t realize the problems we are facing related to the scarcity of natural resources, high-low consumption fluctuations, fertility rates, poverty, global climate change, women rights, gender equality, lack of education and changing technology policy. It is predicted that the planet will have a growth in population by the end of the century which is estimated to be 11 billion. So, the question arises with this much higher population growth will it be possible to live on the planet or some ramifications will be added to sustainability in the long-term? Social Problems Overcrowding of humans on the planet can have some serious social problem to demonstrate some they are: Fertility rates The fertility rate among many nations is decreasing the reason being women end up aborting the babies at a very young age and in a later part of their life it becomes difficult to become pregnant. Also, there is high access to contraception’s in many countries due to this babies don’t end up living. For instance, if we take China’s example the country has the largest population in the world but it is facing the fertility rate issue reason being out of 100 children 60% are boys and rest 40% are girls’ and the reason for this discrimination is they do the gender detect and once they know it’s a girl they end up aborting the baby girl. They are also moving away from one child policy and encouraging adults to have the second baby. Women Rights One of the main suffering areas is when women are not treated well in society as compared to a man. Even in many developed countries, women are paid less than men, they face violence, abuse, and racial discrimination. As there are no rights given to women there comes a fall in education and fertility rates. Poverty Overpopulation is directly linked to poverty which is another very big social issue. There is a lack of education, a decline in the standard of living and poor contraception methods. Also, it was highlighted in class that the global population may not peak this century’’ which is actually doubtful. Now the question arises how will the status of women affect the overpopulation concern? Positive social aspects Education Education plays a very important role in society dealing with the overpopulation problem. It is simple with education there is more knowledge of having fewer kids, less child mortality and understanding the latest technology. With education, the fertility rates will decline. Since with the proper education poverty can also be curbed. This addresses to our SDGs Goal 1 – “NO POVERTY’’ and Goal 4- “QUALITY EDUCATION’’ Gender Equality Giving women equal rights will not only raise the standard in society but also women can generate employment opportunities. Gender Equality correlates with self-protection from diseases, birth control, and better child care. This addresses to our SDGs Goal 5- ” GENDER EQUALITY” These SDG goals in social aspect is to remove poverty, provide quality education and Gender Equality by 2030. Environmental Problems The relationship between a growing population and environmental implications is interlinked and very complex. In the class also it was mentioned about the ‘’environment stress continues to intensify’’ which is disastrous for all of us sharing the same planet. Global warming As there are more people there is a high demand for fossil fuels, oil, mines, and coal when burned there is high emission of CO2 in the atmosphere to trap warm air like greenhouse gases. Mostly the consumption of fossil fuel in developed nations is much higher than in developing nations. Deforestation is another component in greenhouse gases. When the trees are cut or burned approximately 25% CO2 of total greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere making the air toxic to breathe. It was highlighted in class that ‘’ Three years of flat global emissions ended in 2017 as rates jumped by 2% and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by the largest amount since measurements began. This basically means the CO2 has increased in the atmosphere and this will impact climate changes which will have an adverse effect on our planet. This can be addressed with the SDGs Goal 13- “CLIMATE ACTION’’ and also it is necessary to take urgent actions to combat climate change. Farming impacts Agriculture is solely responsible for deforestation across the globe. Intensive farming to create new farmlands has a negative outcome. As intensive farming increases there are chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in crops and this can cause soil erosion. Water pollution Water pollution is not only a huge concern for humans but also for other natural habitat. Due to the high wattage of plastics, toxic chemicals that enter the oceans we are losing the most valuable resource of our planet. Even though we know that we don’t have sufficient water supply in many countries then also we don’t take action against any damage to water resources. This addresses to Goal 6- “CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION’’ and the target by 2030, is to have access to clean water is affordable across the globe. Now the question arises, is it possible to reverse climate change and prevent global warming? Let’s find out in our next learning. Environmental solution Sustainable Infrastructure In order to lessen the emission of CO2 from buildings, it is important to renovate the old buildings. This plan will not only reduce infrastructure cost but also a long-term economic analysis of infrastructure. Clearly, sustainable infrastructure improves socio-economic factors like environmental degradation, energy and renewable conservation and remedy to protect soil from soil erosion. Economic Implications When there is an increasing rise in the population then it is definitely not good for economic development. Reduction in the rate of capital A huge population reduces the per capita availability of capital in underdeveloped and developing countries. Due to the rapid growth of the population, there is a decline in the availability of capital per labor which means there is low productivity. In developing nations, the population is determined to increase the rate of capital. This means since most people are dependent on others all they do is only consume and do not produce anything. Whereas, in developed nations, overpopulation shortens the availability capita per person for which there is a decline in labor. Their income reduces which indirectly affects capital formation. Reduction in unemployment Unemployment results in too many people having very few jobs. To be more descriptive, overpopulation leads to unemployment. For instance, there are two workers one is highly qualified and the other is not so qualified but the not so qualified candidate does not mind working at less pay. This means there will be tougher competition for a job employer would hire a person with minimum wage demand. This addresses to SDGs Goal 8- GOOD JOBS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH’’ by 2020 it is a global strategy to provide jobs to youth and take immediate action against forced labor. To conclude undertaking from this article, I have learned that Overpopulation is one of the major problems in humanity. Overpopulation affects natural resources, poverty, pollution, global warming and the wellness of a person. More than 7.3 people are on this planet and it's not easy to solve social, economic and environmental problems. But to gain a sustainable future in which everyone has a good standard of living we all need to come together and take efforts to tackle such a global issue. Recommendations

The government must increase the age of marriage in some specific countries and should put a complete stop to child marriage. Population factor has a significant impact on the attainment of development objectives, international strategies should be taken into consideration as there is an interrelation between the resources, environment, population, and growth. Health improvement programs should be taken up by the government for the masses as health plays an important role in the growth of a country.

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• v.5(4); 2013

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

J. van bavel.

Centre for Sociological Research / Family & Population Studies (FaPOS), Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Leuven, Parkstraat 45 bus 3601, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows.

Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections.

Introduction

In the year 1900, Belgium and the Philippines had more or less the same population, around 7 million people. By the year 2000, the population of the Western European monarchy had grown to 10 million citizens, while the South East Asian republic at the turn of the century already counted 76 million citizens. The population of Belgium has since then exceeded 11 million citizens, but it is unlikely that this number will rise to 12 million by the year 2050. The population of the Philippines on the other hand will continue to grow to a staggering 127 million citizens by 2050, according to the demographic projections of the United Nations (UN 2013).

The demographic growth rate of the Philippines around the turn of the century (2% a year) has already created enormous challenges and is clearly unsustainable in the long term: such growth implies a doubling of the population every 35 years as a consequence of which there would be 152 million people by 2035, 304 million by 2070, and so on. Nobody expects such a growth to actually occur. This contribution will discuss the more realistic scenarios for the future.

Even the rather modest Belgian demographic growth rate around the turn of this century (0.46%) is not sustainable in the long term. In any case, it exceeds by far the average growth rate of the human species (homo sapiens sapiens) that arose in Africa some 200.000 years ago. Today, earth is inhabited by some 7 billion people. To achieve this number in 200.000 years, the average yearly growth rate over this term should have been around 0.011% annually (so 11 extra human beings per 1.000 human beings already living on earth). The current Belgian growth rate would imply that our country would have grown to 7 billion in less than 1500 years.

The point of this story is that the current growth numbers are historically very exceptional and untenable in the long term. The demographic growth rates are indeed on the decline worldwide and this paper will attempt to explain some of the mechanisms behind that process. That doesn’t change the fact, however, that the growth remains extraordinarily high and the decline in some regions very slow. This is especially the case in Sub Saharan Africa. In absolute numbers, the world population will continue to grow anyway for quite some time as a result of demographic inertia. This too will be further clarified in this paper.

The evolution of the world population in numbers

In order to be sustainable, the long term growth rate of the population should not differ much from 0%. That is because a growth rate exceeding 0% has exponential implications. In simple terms: if a combination of birth and growth figures only appears to cause a modest population growth initially, then this seems to imply an explosive growth in the longer term.

Thomas R. Malthus already acquired this point of view by the end of the 18th century. In his famous “Essay on the Principle of Population” (first edition in 1789), Malthus argues justly that in time the growth of the population will inevitably slow down, either by an increase of the death rate or by a decrease of the birth rate. On a local scale, migration also plays an important role.

It is no coincidence that Malthus’ essay appeared in England at the end of the 18th century. After all, the population there had started to grow at a historically unseen rate. More specifically the proletariat had grown immensely and that worried the intellectuals and the elite. Year after year, new demographic growth records were recorded.

At the beginning of the 19th century, the number of 1 billion people was exceeded for the first time in history. Subsequently growth accelerated and the number of 2 billion people was already surpassed around 1920. By 1960, another billion had been added, in 40 instead of 120 years time. And it continued to go even faster: 4 billion by 1974, 5 billion by 1987, 6 billion by 1999 and 7 billion in 2011 ( Fig. 1 ).

This will certainly not stop at the current 7 billion. According to the most recent projections by the United Nations, the number of 8 billion will probably be exceeded by 2025, and around 2045 there will be more than 9 billion people 1 . The further one looks into the future, the more uncertain these figures become, and with demography on a world scale one must always take into account a margin of error of a couple of tens of millions. But according to all plausible scenarios, the number of 9 billion will be exceeded by 2050.

Demographic growth was and is not equally distributed around the globe. The population explosion first occurred on a small scale and with a relatively moderate intensity in Europe and America, more or less between 1750 and 1950. From 1950 on, a much more substantial and intensive population explosion started to take place in Asia, Latin America and Africa ( Fig. 2 ). Asia already represented over 55% of the world population in 1950 with its 1.4 billion citizens and by the year 2010 this had increased to 4.2 billion people or 60%. Of those people, more than 1.3 billion live in China and 1.2 billion in India, together accounting for more than one third of the world population.

In the future, the proportion of Asia will come down and that of Africa will increase. Africa was populated by some 230 million people around 1950, or 9% of the world population. In 2010 there were already more than 1 billion Africans or 15% of the world population. According to UN projections, Africa will continue to grow at a spectacular rate up to 2.2 billion inhabitants in 2050 or 24% of the world population. The proportion of Europe, on the other hand, is evolving in the opposite direction: from 22% of the world population in 1950, over 11% in 2010 to an expected mere 8% in 2050. The population of Latin America has grown and is growing rapidly in absolute terms, but because of the strong growth in Asia and especially Africa, the relative proportion of the Latin American population is hardly increasing (at most from 6 to 8%). The proportion of the population in North America, finally, has decreased slightly from 7 to 5% of the world population.

What these figures mainly come down to in practice is that the population size in especially the poor countries is increasing at an unprecedented rate. At the moment, more than 5.7 billion people, or more than 80% of humanity, are living in what the UN categorise as a developing country. By 2050, that number would – according to the projections – have increased to 8 billion people or 86% of the world population. Within this group of developing countries, the group of least developed countries, the poorest countries so to speak, is growing strongly: from 830 million now, up to an expected 1.7 billion in 2050. This comprises very poor countries such as Somalia, Sudan, Liberia, Niger or Togo in Africa; Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Myanmar in Asia; and Haiti in the Caribbean.

The growth of the world population goes hand in hand with global urbanisation: while around the year 1950 less than 30% of people lived in the cities, this proportion has increased to more than 50%. It is expected that this proportion will continue to grow to two thirds around 2050. Latin America is the most urbanised continent (84%), closely followed by North America (82%) and at a distance by Europe (73%). The population density has increased intensely especially in the poorest countries: from 9 people per square km in 1950 to 40 people per square km in 2010 (an increase by 330%) in the poorest countries, while this figure in the rich countries increased from 15 to 23 people per square km (a 50% growth). In Belgium, population density is 358 people per square km and in the Netherlands 400 people per square km; in Rwanda this number is 411, in the Palestinian regions 666 and in Bangladesh an astonishing 1050.

Although the world population will continue to grow in absolute figures for some time – a following paragraph will explain why – the growth rate in percentages in all large world regions is decreasing. In the richer countries, the yearly growth rate has already declined to below 0.3%. On a global scale, the yearly growth rate of more than 2% at the peak around 1965 decreased to around 1% now. A further decline to less than 0.5% by 2050 is expected. In the world’s poorest countries, the demographic growth is still largest: at present around 2.2%. For these countries, a considerable decrease is expected, but the projected growth rate would not fall below 1.5% before 2050. This means, as mentioned above, a massive growth of the population in absolute figures in the world’s poorest countries.

Causes of the explosion: the demographic transition

The cause of, first, the acceleration and, then, the deceleration in population growth is the modern demographic transition: an increasingly growing group of countries has experienced a transition from relatively high to low birth and death rates, or is still in the process of experiencing this. It is this transition that is causing the modern population explosion. Figure 3 is a schematic and strongly simplified representation of the modern demographic transition.

In Europe, the modern demographic transition started to take place in the middle of the 18th century. Until then, years of extremely high death rates were quite frequent. Extremely high crisis mortality could be the consequence of epidemic diseases or failed harvests and famine, or a combination of both. As a consequence of better hygiene and a better transportation infrastructure (for one, the canals and roads constructed by Austria in the 18th century), amongst other reasons, crisis mortality became less and less frequent. Later on in the 19th century, child survival began to improve. Vaccination against smallpox for example led to an eradication of the disease, with the last European smallpox pandemic dating from 1871. This way, not only the years of crisis mortality became less frequent, but also the average death rate decreased, from an average 30 deaths per 1000 inhabitants in the beginning of the 19th century to around 15 deaths per 1000 citizens by the beginning of the 20th century. In the meantime, the birth rate however stayed at its previous, high level of 30-35 births per 1000 inhabitants.

The death rate went down but the birth rate still didn’t: this caused a large growth in population. It was only near the end of the nineteenth century (a bit earlier in some countries, later in others) that married couples in large numbers started to reduce their number of children. By the middle of the 20th century, the middle class ideal of a two children household had gained enormous popularity and influence. The reaction by the Church, for example in the encyclical Humanae Vitae (1968), came much too late to bring this evolution to a halt.

As a consequence of widespread family planning – made even easier in the sixties by modern hormonal contraceptives – the birth rate started declining as well and the population tended back towards zero growth. Nowadays the end of this transition process has been more than achieved in all European countries, because the fertility has been below replacement level for several decades (the replacement level is the fertility level that would in the long term lead to a birth rate identical to the death rate, if there would be no migration) 2 .

That the population explosion in the developing countries since the second half of the 20th century was so much more intense and massive, is a consequence of the fact that in those countries, the process of demographic transition occurred to a much more extreme extent and on a much larger scale. On the one hand, mortality decreased faster than in Europe. After all, in Europe the decline in mortality was the result of a gradual understanding of the importance of hygiene and afterwards the development of new medical insights. These insights of course already existed at the start of the demographic transitions in Asian, Latin American and African regions, whereby the life expectancy in these regions could grow faster. On the other hand, the total fertility – the average number of children per woman – at the start of the transition was a lot higher in many poor regions than it initially was in Europe. For South Korea, Brasil and the Congo, for example, the total fertility rate shortly after the Second World War (at the start of their demographic transition) is estimated to be 6 children per woman. In Belgium this number was close to 4.5 children per woman by the middle of the nineteenth century. In some developing regions, the fertility and birth rate decreased moderately to very fast, but in other regions this decline took off at an exceptionally sluggish pace – this will be further explained later on. As a consequence of these combinations of factors, in most of these countries the population explosion was much larger than it had been in most European countries.

Scenarios for the future

Nonetheless, the process of demographic transition has reached its second phase in almost all countries in the world, namely the phase of declining fertility and birth rates. In a lot of Asian and Latin American countries, the entire transition has taken place and the fertility level is around or below the replacement level. South Korea for example is currently at 1.2 children per woman and is one of the countries with the lowest fertility levels in the world. In Iran and Brasil the fertility level is currently more or less equal to Belgium’s, that is 1.8 to 1.9 children per woman.

Crucial to the future evolution of the population is the further evolution of the birth rate. Scenarios for the future evolution of the size and age of the population differ according to the hypotheses concerning the further evolution of the birth rate. The evolution of the birth rate is in turn dependent on two things: the further evolution of the total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) in the first place and population momentum in the second. The latter is a concept I will later on discuss in more detail. The role of the population momentum is usually overlooked in the popular debates, but is of utmost importance in understanding the further evolution of the world population. Population momentum is the reason why we are as good as certain that the world population will continue to grow for a while. The other factor, the evolution of the fertility rate, is much more uncertain but of critical importance in the long term. The rate at which the further growth of the world population can be slowed down is primarily dependent on the extent to which the fertility rates will continue to decline. I will further elaborate on this notion in the next paragraph. After that, I will clarify the notion of population momentum.

Declining fertility

Fertility is going down everywhere in the world, but it’s going down particularly slowly in Africa. A further decline remains uncertain there. Figure 4 shows the evolution per world region between 1950 and 2010, plus the projected evolution until 2050. The numbers before 2010 illustrate three things. First of all, on all continents there is a decline going on. Secondly, this decline is not equal everywhere. And thirdly: the differences between the continents remain large in some cases. Asia and Latin America have seen a similar decline in fertility: from 5.9 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 at the start of the 21st century. Europe and North America had already gone through the largest part of their demographic transition by the 1950’s. Their fertility level has been below replacement levels for years. Africa has indeed seen a global decrease of fertility, but the average number of children is still at an alarmingly high level: the fertility merely decreased from 6.7 to 5.1 children per woman.

These continental averages hide a huge underlying diversity in fertility paths. Figure 5 attempts to illustrate this for a number of countries. Firstly let us consider two African countries: the Congo and Niger. As was often the case in Europe in the 19th century, fertility was first on the rise before it started declining. In the Congo this decrease was more extensive, from around 6 children in 1980 to 4 children per woman today, and a further decline to just below three is expected in the next thirty years. Niger is the country where the fertility level remains highest: from 7 it first rose to an average of just below 8 children per woman in the middle of the 1980’s, before decreasing to just above 6.5 today. For the next decades a decline to 4 children per woman is expected. But that is not at all certain: it is dependent on circumstances that will be further explained in a moment. The demographic transition is after all not a law of nature but the result of human actions and human institutions.

Around 1950, Pakistan and Iran had more or less the same fertility level as Niger, but both countries have seen a considerable decline in the meantime. In Pakistan the level decreased slowly to the current level of 3 children per woman. In Iran the fertility decreased more abruptly, faster and deeper to below the replacement level – Iran today has one of the lowest fertility levels in the world, and a further decline is expected. The Iranian Revolution of 1978 played a crucial role in the history of Iran (Abassi-Shavazi et al., 2009): it brought better education and health care, two essential ingredients for birth control.

Brasil was also one of the countries with very high fertility in the 1950’s – higher than the Congo, for example. The decrease started earlier than in Iran but happened more gradually. Today both countries have the same total fertility, below the replacement level.

Child mortality, education and family planning

Which factors cause the average number of children to go down? The literature concerning explanations for the decrease in fertility is vast and complex, but two factors emerge as crucial in this process: education and child survival.

Considering child survival first: countries combining intensive birth control with very high child mortality are simply non-existent. The statistical association between the level of child mortality and fertility is very tight and strong: in countries with high child mortality, fertility is high, and vice versa. This statistical correlation is very strong because the causal relation goes in both directions; with quick succession of children and therefore a lot of children to take care for, the chances of survival for the infants are lower than in those families with only a limited number of children to take care of – this is a fortiori the case where infrastructure for health care is lacking. A high fertility level thus contributes to a high child mortality. And in the other direction: where survival chances of children improve, the fertility will go down because even those households with a lower number of children have increasing confidence in having descendants in the long term.

It is crucial to understand that the decline in child mortality in the demographic transition always precedes the decline in fertility. Men, women and families cannot be convinced of the benefits of birth control if they don’t have confidence in the survival chances of their children. Better health care is therefore essential, and a lack of good health care is one of the reasons for a persistently high fertility in a country like Niger.

Education is another factor that can cause a decline in fertility. This is probably the most important factor, not just because education is an important humanitarian goal in itself (apart from the demographic effects), but also because with education one can kill two birds with one stone: education causes more birth control but also better child survival (recently clearly demonstrated by Smith-Greenaway (2013), which in its turn will lead to better birth control. The statistical correlation between level of education and level of fertility is therefore very strong.

Firstly, education enhances the motivation for birth control: if parents invest in the education of their children, they will have fewer children, as has been demonstrated. Secondly, education promotes a more forward-looking lifestyle: it will lead people to think on a somewhat longer term, to think about tomorrow, next week and next month, instead of living for the day. This attitude is necessary for effective birth control. Thirdly, education also increases the potential for effective contraception, because birth control doesn’t just happen, especially not when efficient family planning facilities are not or hardly accessible or when there are opposing cultural or family values.

The influence of education on birth control has been demonstrated in a vast number of studies (James et al., 2012). It starts with primary education, but an even larger effect can be attained by investment in secondary education (Cohen, 2008). In a country like Niger, for example, women who didn’t finish primary school have on average 7.8 children. Women who did finish primary school have on average 6.7 children, while women who finished secondary school “only” have 4.6 children ( Fig. 6 ). The fertility of Niger would be a lot lower if more women could benefit from education. The tragedy of that country is that too many people fall in the category of those without a degree of primary school, with all its demographic consequences.

One achieves with education therefore a plural beneficial demographic effect on top of the important objective of human emancipation in itself. All this is of course not always true but depends on which form of “education”; I assume that we’re talking about education that teaches people the knowledge and skills to better take control of their own destiny.

It is one thing to get people motivated to practice birth control but obtaining actual effective contraception is quite another matter. Information concerning the efficient use of contraceptives and increasing the accessibility and affordability of contraceptives can therefore play an important role. There are an estimated 215 million women who would want to have contraception but don’t have the means (UNFPA, 2011). Investments in services to help with family planning are absolutely necessary and could already have great results in this group of women. But it’s no use to put the cart before the horse: if there is no intention to practice birth control, propaganda for and accessibility of contraception will hardly have any effect, as was demonstrated in the past. In Europe the lion’s share of the decline in fertility was realized with traditional methods, before the introduction of hormonal contraception in the sixties. There is often a problem of lack of motivation for birth control on the one hand, as a result of high child mortality and low schooling rates, and a lack of power in women who may be motivated to limit fertility but are confronted with male resistance on the other (Blanc, 2011; Do and Kurimoto, 2012). Empowerment of women is therefore essential, and education can play an important role in that process as well.

Population momentum

Even if all the people would suddenly practice birth control much more than is currently considered possible, the world population would still continue to grow for a while. This is the consequence of population momentum, a notion that refers to the phenomenon of demographic inertia, comparable to the phenomenon of momentum and inertia in the field of physics. Demographic growth is like a moving train: even when you turn off the engine, the movement will continue for a little while.

The power and direction of population momentum is dependent on the age structure of the population. Compare the population pyramids of Egypt and Germany ( Fig. 7 ). The one for Egypt has a pyramidal shape indeed, but the one for Germany looks more like an onion. As a consequence of high birth rates in the previous decades, the largest groups of Egyptians are to be found below the age of forty; the younger, the more voluminous the generation. Even if the current and future generations of Egyptians would limit their fertility strongly (as is indeed the case), the birth rate in Egypt would still continue to rise for quite some time, just because year after year more and more potential mothers and fathers reach the fertile ages. Egypt therefore clearly has a growth momentum.

Germany on the other hand has a negative or shrinking momentum: even if the younger generations of Germans would have a larger num ber of children than the generation of their own parents, the birth rate in Germany would still continue to decrease because fewer and fewer potential mothers and fathers reach the fertile ages.

The population momentum on a global scale is positive: even if fertility would decrease overnight to the replacement level, the world population would continue to grow with 40% (from 7 billion to 9.8 billion). Only the rich countries have a shrinking momentum, that is -3%. For Europe the momentum is -7%. The population momentum for the poorest countries in the world is +44%, that of Sub Saharan Africa +46% (Espenshade et al., 2011).

Consequences of the population explosion

The concerns about the consequences of population explosion started in the sixties. Milestone publications were the 1968 book The Population bomb by biologist Paul Ehrlich, the report of the Club of Rome from 1972 (The Limits to Growth) and the first World Population Plan of Action of the UN in 1974 among others.

In the world population debate, the general concerns involve mainly three interconnected consequences of the population explosion: 1) the growing poverty in the world and famine; 2) the exhaustion and pollution of natural resources essential to human survival; and 3) the migration pressure from the poor South to the rich North (Van Bavel, 2004).

Poverty and famine

The Malthusian line of thought continues to leave an important mark on the debate regarding the association between population growth and poverty: Malthus saw an excessive population growth as an important cause of poverty and famine. Rightfully this Malthusian vision has been criticized a lot. One must after all take the reverse causal relation into account as well: poverty and the related social circumstances (like a lack of education and good health care for children) contribute to high population growth as well.

Concerning famine: the production of food has grown faster since 1960 than the world population has, so nowadays the amount of food produced per person exceeds that which existed before the population explosion (Lam, 2011). The problem of famine isn’t as much an insufficient food production as it is a lack of fair distribution (and a lack of sustainable production, but that’s another issue). Often regions with famine have ecological conditions permitting sufficient production of food, provided the necessary investments in human resources and technology are made. The most important cause of famine is therefore not the population explosion. Famine is primarily a consequence of unequal distribution of food, which in turn is caused by social-economic inequality, lack of democracy and (civil) war.

Poverty and famine usually have mainly political and institutional causes, not demographic ones. The Malthusian vision, that sees the population explosion as the root of all evil, therefore has to be corrected ( Fig. 8 ). Rapid population growth can indeed hinder economical development and can thus pave the way for poverty. But this is only part of the story. As mentioned, poverty is also an underlying cause of rapid population growth. Social factors are at the base of both poverty and population growth. It’s those social factors that require our intervention: via investments in education and (reproductive) health care.

Impact on the environment

The impact of the population explosion on the environment is unquestionably high, but the size of the population represents only one aspect of this. In this regard it can be useful to keep in mind the simple I=PAT scheme: the ecological footprint or impact on the environment (I) can be regarded as the product of the size of the population (P), the prosperity or consumption level (A for affluence) and the technology used (T). The relationship between each of these factors is more complex than the I=PAT scheme suggests, but in any case the footprint I of a population of 1000 people is for example dependent on how many of those people drive a car instead of a bike, and of the emission per car of the vehicle fleet concerned.

The ecological footprint of the world population has increased tremendously the past decades and the growth of the world population has obviously played an important role in this. The other factors in the I=PAT scheme have however played a relatively bigger role than the demographic factor P. The considerable increase in the Chinese ecological footprint of the past decades for example, is more a consequence of the increased consumption of meat than of population growth (Peters et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2008). The carbon dioxide emission of China grew by 82% between 1990 and 2003, while the population only increased by 11% in that same period. A similar story exists for India: the population grew by less than 23% between 1990 and 2003, while the emission of carbon dioxide increased by more than 83% (Chakravarty et al., 2009). The consumption of water and meat in the world is increasing more rapidly than the population 3 . The consumption of water per person is for example threefold higher in the US than in China (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2007). The African continent has at present the same number of inhabitants as Europe and North America together, over 1 billion. But the total ecological footprint of Europeans and Americans is many times higher than that of Africans (Ewing et al., 2010). Less than 18% of the world population is responsible for over 50% of the global carbon dioxide emission (Chakravarty et al., 2009).

If we are therefore concerned about the impact of the world population on the environment, we can do something about it immediately by tackling our own overconsumption: it’s something we can control and it has an immediate effect. In contrast, we know of the population growth that it will continue for some time anyhow, even if people in poor countries would practice much more birth control than we consider possible at present.

The population explosion has created an increasing migration pressure from the South to the North – and there is also important migration within and between countries in the South. But here as well the message is: the main responsibility doesn’t lie with the population growth but with economic inequality. The primary motive for migration was and is economic disparity: people migrate from regions with no or badly paid labour and a low standard of living to other regions, where one hopes to find work and a higher standard of living (Massey et al., 1993; Hooghe et al., 2008; IMO, 2013). Given the permanent population growth and economical inequality, a further increasing migration pressure is to be expected, irrespective of the national policies adopted.

It is sometimes expected that economic growth and increasing incomes in the South will slow down the migration pressure, but that remains to be seen. After all, it isn’t usually the poorest citizens in developing countries that migrate to rich countries. It is rather the affluent middle class in poor countries that have the means to send their sons and daughters to the North – an investment that can raise a lot of money via remittances to the families in the country of origin (IMO, 2013). There is after all a considerable cost attached to migration, in terms of money and human capital. Not everyone can bear those costs: to migrate you need brains, guts and money. With growing economic development in poor countries, an initial increase in migration pressure from those countries would be expected; the association between social-economic development and emigration is not linearly negative but follows the shape of a J turned upside down: more emigration at the start of economic development and a decline in emigration only with further development (De Haas, 2007).

7 Billion and counting… What is to be done?

A world population that needed some millennia before reaching the number of 1 billion people, but then added some billions more after 1920 in less than a century: the social, cultural, economic and ecological consequences of such an evolution are so complex that they can lead to fear and indifference at the same time. What kind of constructive reaction is possible and productive in view of such an enormous issue?

First of all: we need to invest in education and health care in Africa and elsewhere, not just as a humanitarian target per se but also because it will encourage the spread of birth control. Secondly, we need to encourage and support the empowerment of women, not just via education but also via services for reproductive health. This has triple desirable results for demographics: it will lead to more and more effective birth control, which in itself has a positive effect on the survival of children, which in turn again facilitates birth control.

Thirdly: because of the positive population momentum, the world population will certainly continue to grow in absolute figures, even though the yearly growth rate in percentages is already on the decline for several years. The biggest contribution we could make therefore, with an immediate favourable impact for ourselves and the rest of the world, is to change our consumption pattern and deal with the structural overconsumption of the world’s richest countries.

(1) Unless otherwise specified, all figures in this paragraph are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision, http://esa.un.org/wpp/ . Concerning projections for the future, I reported the results of the Medium Variant. Apart from this variant, there are also high and low variants (those relying on scenarios implying respectively an extremely high and extremely low growth of the population) and a variant in which the fertility rates are fixed at the current levels. It is expected that the actual number will be somewhere between the highest and lowest variant and will be closest to the medium variant. That’s why I only report this latter value.

(2) In demography, the term «fertility» refers to the actual number of live births per women. By contrast, the term fecundity refers to reproductive capacity (irrespective of actual childbearing), see Habbema et al. (2004).

(3) See http://www.unwater.org/water-cooperation-2013/water-cooperation/facts-and-figures

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• Published: 11 February 2019

Hardin’s oversimplification of population growth

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Nature Sustainability volume  2 ,  pages 78–79 ( 2019 ) Cite this article

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Garrett Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons put forward underdeveloped arguments that continue to be reflected in simplistic debates about the drivers and implications of demographic dynamics. It’s time to embrace the complexity that Hardin lacked in order to develop better-informed policy.

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The Growth of World Population: Analysis of the Problems and Recommendations for Research and Training (1963)

Chapter: summary statement, summary statement.

This brief statement of population problems indicates the pervasive and depressive effect that uncontrolled growth of population can have on many aspects of human welfare. Nearly all our economic, social, and political problems become more difficult to solve in the face of uncontrolled population growth. It is clear that even in the wealthier nations many individuals and families experience misery and unhappiness because of the birth of unwanted children. The desirability of limiting family size is now fairly generally, though not universally, recognized, particularly among the better-educated and culturally advanced segments of the population in many countries.

Effective voluntary control of family size essentially depends upon the successful interaction of two variables: level or intensity of motivation and the availability and utility of procedures. When motivation is high and sustained, difficult procedures for controlling fertility can be used successfully, but when motivation is weak and erratic, simple procedures that impose few demands are essential. Quite obviously any comprehensive program for solving population problems must work with both these variables, must seek to enhance motivation and also to improve procedures for voluntary control of fertility.

A broadly based effort to develop clearer understanding of the physiology and biochemistry of the reproductive process is a primary requirement. Work in this area can be effectively strengthened by expansion and coordination of the activities of the few existing laboratories now devoted to basic problems of human reproduction.

There is a parallel need—no less important—for extensive, systematic application of new basic knowledge in the development of new techniques, procedures, devices, and medically active compounds for the regulation of fertility. Inherent in this requirement is the necessity for assurance of safety in techniques and procedures, and freedom from undesirable side-effects from compounds and treatments.

These objectives require extensive studies in chemistry, physiology, and biochemistry, with large animal colonies and clinical facilities for large-scale animal and, subsequently, human tests.

The limited field surveys and experiments reported upon in this document must be enlarged, and new projects of this kind undertaken on a continuing basis in many more parts of the world, making effective use of growing bio-medical knowledge and newly developed devices, techniques, and compounds. The objectives of these projects should be two-fold: (1) to determine the advantages and disadvantages of various techniques, procedures, and devices, and (2) to determine the degree and scope of their acceptability in various societies, cultures, and economies. To reach the objective, the means must be provided and they must be accepted and used.

We believe that the implementation of the recommendations in this report will lead to substantial increases in our effective knowledge and will also encourage the use of this increased knowledge in a successful attack on the many problems of rapid and uncontrolled population growth.

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Global population growth is now slowing rapidly. Will a falling population be better for the environment?

Associate Professor in Demography, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

Postdoctoral researcher in climate change and health, Charles Darwin University

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Right now, human population growth is doing something long thought impossible – it’s wavering. It’s now possible global population could peak much earlier than expected, topping 10 billion in the 2060s . Then, it would begin to fall.

In wealthier countries, it’s already happening. Japan’s population is falling sharply, with a net loss of 100 people every hour. In Europe, America and East Asia, fertility rates have fallen sharply. Many middle or lower income countries are about to drop too.

This is an extraordinary change. It was only ten years ago demographers were forecasting our numbers could reach as high as 12.3 billion, up from around 8 billion today.

For 50 years, some environmentalists have tried to save the environment by cutting global population growth. In 1968, The Population Bomb forecast massive famines and called for large-scale birth control.

Now we face a very different reality – population growth is slowing without population control, and wealthy country populations are falling, triggering frantic but largely ineffective efforts to encourage more children. What might a falling global population mean for the environment?

Depopulation is already happening

For much of Europe, North America, and some of Northern Asia, depopulation has been underway for decades. Fertility rates have fallen steadily over the past 70 years and have stayed low, while longer life expectancies mean numbers of very old people (over 80) will double in these regions within 25 years .

China was until recently the world’s most populous nation, accounting for a sixth of the global population. But China, too, is now declining , with the fall expected to rapidly accelerate.

By the end of the century, China is projected to have two-thirds fewer people than today’s 1.4 billion. The sudden drop is due to the long tail of the One Child Policy, which ended in 2016, too late to avert the fall . Japan was once the world’s 11th most populated country, but is expected to halve before the end of the century .

What’s going on is known as demographic transition . As countries move from being largely rural and agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, fertility drops sharply. When low birth rates and low death rates combine, populations begin to fall.

Why? A major factor is choice for women. Women are increasingly having children later in life and having fewer children on average, due to improved choices and freedoms in relation to education and careers .

Why are we suddenly focused on depopulation, given birth rates in rich countries have been falling for decades? When the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, birth rates went into free fall for most countries before recovering a little, while death rates increased . That combination bought forward the onset of population decline more broadly.

A falling population poses real challenges economically. There are fewer workers available and more very old people needing support.

Countries in rapid decline may start to limit emigration to make sure they keep scarce workers at home and prevent further ageing and decline. The competition for skilled workers will intensify globally. Of course, migration doesn’t change how many people there are – just where they are located.

Are these just rich country problems? No. Population growth in Brazil, a large middle-income country, is now the slowest on record .

By 2100, the world is expected to have just six countries where births outweigh deaths – Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan. The other 97% of nations are projected to have fertility rates below replacement levels (2.1 children per woman).

Bad for the economy – good for the environment?

Fewer of us means a reprieve for nature – right? No. It’s not that simple.

For instance, the per capita amount of energy we use peaks between ages 35 and 55, falls, and then rises again from age 70 onwards, as older people are more likely to stay indoors longer and live alone in larger homes. This century’s extraordinary growth in older populations could offset declines from falling populations.

Then there’s the huge disparity in resource use. If you live in the United States or Australia, your carbon footprint is nearly double that of a counterpart in China, the largest overall emitter.

Richer countries consume more. So as more countries get wealthier and healthier but with fewer children, it’s likely more of the global population will become higher emitters. Unless, of course, we decouple economic growth from more emissions and other environmental costs, as many countries are attempting – but very slowly .

Expect to see more liberal migration policies to boost the numbers of working-aged people. We’re already seeing this – migration has now passed projections for 2050 .

When people migrate to a developed country, it can be economically advantageous to them and the adopted country. Environmentally, it can increase per capita emissions and environmental impact, given the link between income and emissions is very clear.

Then there’s the looming upheaval of climate change. As the world heats up, forced migration – where people have to leave home to escape drought, war or other climate-influenced disaster – is projected to soar to 216 million people within a quarter century. Forced migration may change emissions patterns, depending on where people find sanctuary.

These factors aside, it’s possible a falling global population could cut overall consumption and reduce pressure on the natural environment.

Environmentalists worried about overpopulation have long hoped for global population to fall. They may soon get their wish. Not through enforced birth control policies but largely through the choices of educated, wealthier women opting for smaller families.

It’s very much an open question whether falling populations will reduce pressure on the natural world. Unless we also cut emissions and change consumption patterns in developed countries, this is by no means guaranteed.

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Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment Application Essay

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Introduction

Major impacts on the environment resulting from overpopulation, works cited.

Overpopulation may be described as a situation where a habitat holds a larger number of organisms than it should. The human population has been increasing at extreme rates in last few decades with an estimated three births every day (Connor 2006). Overpopulation has continued affecting the environment negatively over these years. Many human activities are not environment friendly and overpopulation does not make the situation any better.

One of the major ways in which overpopulations affects the environment is through water pollution. As many people move to urban areas to seek employment, the amount of sewage waste tends to increase. Such wastes are carelessly disposed off such that they finally find their way into water bodies in their untreated condition.

Some of the main contributors of water pollution are industries and open mines whose waste water contains chemical substances and other materials such as heavy metals which cannot be purified. Overexploitation in oceans through overfishing causes imbalance in the ecosystem of the coastal areas and results to lower populations of fish and other aquatic organisms (Stancheva 2003).

Eventually, all these wastes and sediments find their way into the ocean and since the ocean is important in regulating climate, the overall climate is affected which may lead to economical problems. In addition, the ocean helps to prevent global warming through absorption of some percentage of the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by human activities. Destruction of the ocean through overexploitation, therefore, limits this function.

Besides polluting the water, there is also the problem of overconsumption which limits the supply of this precious commodity. Lack of adequate water also affects the environment since water is essential in maintaining a balanced ecosystem through its use by plants and animals (Vinelli 2003).

Degradation of soil is another major impact of overpopulation. As the population increases, so does the demand for food production to cater for the growing population. This then leads to exploitation of lands that are not suitable for cultivation such as hilly areas and hilly lands whose cultivation leads to erosion and consequent loss of nutrients.

This need for more land for cultivation leads to certain agricultural practices that are not environment friendly such as slash-and-burn cultivation which lead to deforestation. Similarly, overpopulation calls for higher energy production. This leads to exploitation of wood for fuel production and hence resulting to deforestation.

Other primary causes of deforestation are construction of roads and residential houses to cater for the increasing population. The general impact of all the effects mentioned above is the decrease in biodiversity (Fears 2009). As the natural habitats are destroyed, many wildlife species have been displaced and many died due to changes in the environment resulting from pressure due to human overexploitation of the environment.

All of these issues indicate that the natural resources that humans ignore and misuse are of great importance to them. Some of these impacts on the environment resulting from human overexploitation of natural resources may be permanent or last for long periods of time (Nahle 2003).

If these trends continue, the environmental conditions will intensify since it is no doubt that the human population will continue increasing in the recent past. Sustainable approaches should, therefore, be taken to conserve the natural resources in order to counteract these adverse impacts

Connor, S. “ Overpopulation ‘is main threat to planet’ ”. 2006. Web.

Fears, N. “The effect of overpopulation on the environment and our sustainability”. 2009. Web.

Nahle, N. “Current effects of overpopulation”. 2003. Web.

Stancheva, T. “ Effects of overpopulation on the environment ”, 2003.Web.

Vinelli, G. “Environmental effects of population”. 2003. Web.

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IvyPanda. (2018, October 10). Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment. https://ivypanda.com/essays/impacts-of-overpopulation-on-the-environment/

"Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment." IvyPanda , 10 Oct. 2018, ivypanda.com/essays/impacts-of-overpopulation-on-the-environment/.

IvyPanda . (2018) 'Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment'. 10 October.

IvyPanda . 2018. "Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment." October 10, 2018. https://ivypanda.com/essays/impacts-of-overpopulation-on-the-environment/.

1. IvyPanda . "Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment." October 10, 2018. https://ivypanda.com/essays/impacts-of-overpopulation-on-the-environment/.

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IvyPanda . "Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment." October 10, 2018. https://ivypanda.com/essays/impacts-of-overpopulation-on-the-environment/.

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Nhìn chung, một Thesis statement hiệu quả cần đảm bảo 3 tiêu chí sau:

• Súc tích (Concise) : Một câu luận điểm hay cần ngắn gọn và đi thẳng vào vấn đề. Bạn không cần dài dòng quá mức cần thiết. Khi viết essay, bạn cần thể hiện quan điểm của mình rõ ràng và trực tiếp trong 1 – 2 câu.
• Có nội dung tranh luận (Contentious) : Luận điểm của bạn không nên là tuyên bố đơn giản về sự thật hiển nhiên mà ai cũng đều biết. Một Thesis statement tốt cần phải có bằng chứng hoặc lập luận phân tích.
• Mạch lạc (Coherent) : Nội dung được đề cập trong tuyên bố luận điểm cần được trình bày và giải thích trong phần còn lại của bài viết.

Thesis statement là tuyên bố luận điểm hoặc được gọi là luận điểm

Vì sao bạn cần viết Thesis statement?

Trong IELTS Writing Task 2, Thesis statement đóng vai trò là ý chính, ý chủ đạo của bài viết. Bằng cách đầu tư vào nghiên cứu và phát triển luận đề, bạn có thể:

• Xác định trọng tâm và hướng triển khai của nội dung cho bài viết.
• Giúp người đọc nhanh chóng hiểu được ý chính mà bạn sẽ trình bày bên dưới.
• Nếu không có tuyên bố luận điểm rõ ràng, bài luận của bạn có thể trở nên lan man. Điều đó khiến người đọc dễ bị “lạc trôi” và khó nắm bắt nội dung.

Ví dụ về Thesis statement trong Writing Task 2

Đề Writing Task 2 như sau:

“In some countries, children have very strict rules of behavior, while in other countries they are allowed to do almost anything they want. To what extent should children have to follow rules?”

Vậy Thesis statement mẫu có thể viết như sau: “In my opinion, children should have some rules to follow in order to ensure their safety and proper development, but overly strict rules can hinder their creativity and independence. Therefore, it is important to strike a balance between discipline and freedom for children.”

Trong Thesis statement này, bạn đã trình bày quan điểm về đề bài và tóm tắt ý chính trong bài viết. Bài viết nói về trẻ em cần có một số quy tắc để đảm bảo sự an toàn và phát triển cá nhân. Tuy nhiên, có quá nhiều quy định có thể tác động đến sự sáng tạo và tư duy của trẻ nhỏ. Do đó, chúng ta cần phải duy trì sự cân bằng giữa kỷ luật và tự do cho trẻ em.

Thesis statement đóng vai trò là ý chính, ý chủ đạo của bài viết

Sự khác biệt giữa Thesis statement và Topic sentence

Nhiều bạn thường hay nhầm lẫn giữa hai khái niệm “Thesis statement” và “Topic sentence“. Về cơ bản, hai thuật ngữ này khá tương đồng, song lại không hề giống nhau. Cụ thể, Thesis statement thể hiện luận điểm chính của cả bài luận. Còn topic sentence chỉ là câu ý chính của một đoạn văn nhất định trong bài.

Thesis statement nên nằm ở đâu?

Thesis statement thường xuất hiện ở cuối phần giới thiệu trong bài luận. Ví dụ:

The internet has had an immense impact on education, revolutionizing the way students learn and teachers teach. Through online access to educational materials and resources, students are now exposed to a variety of perspectives and can explore a range of topics at their own pace. Despite some valid worries about potential harms associated with internet use, it is clear that its various benefits far outweigh any negatives.

Cách viết Thesis statement trong IELTS Writing Task 2

Khi tìm hiểu Thesis statement là gì, mọi người thường thắc mắc cách viết chủ đề này ra sao trong Writing Task 2. Thesis statement được xem là một trong những phần quan trọng nhất trong IELTS Wring Task 2. Sau đây là một số bước giúp bạn viết luận đề hiệu quả:

• Bước 1: Đọc kỹ đề bài và xác định chủ đề chính của đề bài.
• Bước 2: Xác định ý chính của bản thân về chủ đề bằng cách phác thảo ý tưởng, tình huống.
• Bước 3: Lựa chọn một ý kiến chính để bao quát toàn bộ bài viết của bạn.
• Bước 4: Sắp xếp các ý kiến, tình huống. Ví dụ thành một cụm từ, câu hoặc đoạn văn ngắn để diễn đạt ý chính của bạn về chủ đề của bài.

Trong quá trình này, bạn cần lưu ý đảm bảo Thesis statement phải rõ ràng và ngắn gọn. Một tuyên bố luận điểm trình bày tốt sẽ giúp bài viết của bạn đạt điểm cao hơn.

5 lưu ý về cách viết Thesis statement trong Writing IELTS Task 2

Sau đây là 5 lưu ý chính về cách viết câu luận điểm để có hiệu quả cao nhất:

Mạch lạc và súc tích

Thesis statement cần phải được viết rõ ràng và ngắn gọn. Từ đó để người đọc có thể nhanh chóng nắm được quan điểm và lập luận của bạn. Bạn nên tránh sử dụng ngôn ngữ mơ hồ, biệt ngữ hoặc các cấu trúc phức tạp, dễ gây nhầm lẫn.

Ví dụ, bạn nên tránh sử dụng các thuật ngữ mơ hồ và chung chung như “some,” “many,” hay “a lot”. Thay vào đó, bạn hãy sử dụng cách diễn đạt cụ thể để minh họa sâu sắc cho lập luận của mình.

Ví dụ: Some people believe that social media has a negative impact on mental health. -> The excessive use of social media can lead to depression and anxiety among adolescents.

Nêu ra quan điểm chính

Thesis statement cần thể hiện quan điểm xuyên suốt và đóng vai trò là “lộ trình” cho xuyên suốt toàn bộ bài. Từ đó giúp người đọc có thể hình dung về những ý tưởng mà họ có thể chờ đợi trong các phần tiếp theo. Hãy đảm bảo rằng bạn tuyên bố luận điểm của mình một cách cụ thể, có tính tranh luận và được hỗ trợ bằng dẫn chứng hoặc ví dụ.

Ví dụ minh họa:

Topic : Should schools teach financial management to students?

Thesis Statement : Schools should teach financial management to students as it will help them make informed financial decisions, cultivate responsible spending habits, and reduce the risk of debt in adulthood.

Như bạn thấy, câu luận điểm trên đây đã nêu rõ quan điểm chính của người viết về trường học nên dạy kỹ năng quản lý tài chính cho sinh viên. Có 3 điểm hỗ trợ như sau:

• Giúp sinh viên đưa ra quyết định tài chính sáng suốt
• Nuôi dưỡng thói quen chi tiêu có trách nhiệm và
• Giảm rủi ro mắc nợ khi trưởng thành.

Nó có tính tranh luận. Vì có thể có nhiều ý kiến khác nhau về việc trường nên ưu tiên dạy quản lý tài chính hay tập trung các môn khác cho sinh viên. Cuối cùng, luận điểm của bạn có thể được hỗ trợ bằng bằng chứng hoặc ví dụ. Vì đã có những nghiên cứu thực tế về lợi ích của giáo dục tài chính đối với sinh viên.

Sử dụng từ ngữ mạnh mẽ

Thesis statement nên được sử dụng ngôn ngữ mạnh mẽ, rõ ràng để truyền đạt quan điểm của bạn một cách hiệu quả nhất. Tránh sử dụng những cụm từ như “I think”, “In my opinion” vì nó sẽ làm suy yếu lập luận của bạn. Ngoài ra, sử dụng động từ chủ động sẽ thể hiện ý tưởng của bạn một cách chắc chắn hơn.

Topic : Should college education be free for everyone? Weak : In my opinion, I think that college education should be free for everyone. Strong : College education should be free for everyone as it is a basic human right and promotes equal opportunities for all individuals to access higher education.

Trong ví dụ ban đầu, việc bạn sử dụng cụm từ “I think” và “In my opnion” khiến luận điểm của bạn trở nên kém thu hút và mang tính chủ quan. Ngược lại, ví dụ thứ hai sử dụng các động từ tích cực và rõ ràng để truyền đạt quan điểm thu hút hơn. Bên cạnh đó, người viết cũng bao gồm lập luận hỗ trợ, rằng giáo dục đại học là quyền cơ bản của con người, góp phần thúc đẩy các cơ hội bình đẳng.

Tránh sử dụng đại từ nhân xưng

Trong bài viết IELTS Academic, bạn nên tránh sử dụng các đại từ nhân xưng như “I” hoặc “my”. Thay vào đó, bạn hãy sử dụng ngôn ngữ trung lập để trình bày lập luận. Điều này sẽ đảm bảo tính khách quan và xác thực cho luận điểm thể hiện trong bài.

Đảm bảo bám sát yêu cầu đề bài

Thesis statement cần liên quan trực tiếp đến câu hỏi trong đề thi IELTS Writing Task 2. Hãy đảm bảo rằng câu luận điểm của bạn đã đề cập đến câu hỏi cụ thể được đặt ra. Để làm điều này, bạn hãy đọc lại câu hỏi nhiều lần để đảm bảo nội dung của bạn đang đi đúng chủ đề.

Some people think that social media has more disadvantages than advantages. To what extent do you agree or disagree?

Lạc đề: Social media is a powerful tool that has revolutionized the way we communicate and interact with each other.

Trong ví dụ này, câu luận điểm không đề cập đến câu hỏi. Người viết nêu được chủ đề mạng xã hội (social media). Nhưng họ không đề cập đến những lợi thế và bất lợi của việc sử dụng mạng xã hội. Cũng như họ không đưa ra quan điểm rõ ràng về chủ đề này.

Đúng đề: While there are some disadvantages to using social media. The advantages outweigh them as it allows for easy communication and connection with others, provides access to information and resources. And it can be used for educational and professional purposes.

Với ví dụ này, câu luận điểm đề cập trực tiếp đến câu hỏi qua việc người viết thừa nhận rằng có những bất lợi khi sử dụng mạng xã hội. Nhưng đồng thời có những lợi ích to lớn hơn bù lại. Ngoài ra, người viết cũng đề cập 3 luận cứ chính sẽ được giải quyết trong bài luận này.

Bài viết trên đã giải thích cho bạn biết Thesis statement là gì . Bạn hãy nhớ rằng, câu luận điểm chính là xương sống của toàn bộ bài luận. Vì vậy, bạn hãy cố gắng luyện tập thật nhiều để tăng cường kỹ năng viết. Ngoài ra, VinUni có khoá học Pathway English giúp cho sinh viên có thể rèn luyện và nâng cao 4 kỹ năng trong tiếng Anh. Qua đó, sinh viên có thể tự tin sử dụng ngôn ngữ trong việc học và công việc trong tương lai hơn!

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