tok essay examples 2022

May 2022 Theory of Knowledge Essay Titles | Tips + SAMPLES

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Already nervous about the BIG ToK essay? We hear ya! From finding the right ToK essay topic to making sure you cover all your basis, ToK essay can be a big deal and frankly overwhelming as well. The key here, however, is forward planning and by the looks of it, you seem to be on the right track!

IMPORTANT! These are topics for the year 2022. Check the latest 2024 November TOK Essay Titles

Finalizing the topic for your essay is just one component of ToK but an extremely important one. According to the ToK essay core, it holds 67% weightage in the final grade. Through this essay, examiners see how coherent, critical and clear the reflection and analysis of the topic you have chosen is. And because of how essential the essay is, students often find themselves in a pickle because they are often not guided correctly on how this essay needs to be done.

The idea behind this essay is not to assess the amount of knowledge you possess regarding a subject matter, but how you explain the findings that you have. It must demonstrate your knowledge in a constructive manner and that is what helps you with this 67% of the grade.

ToK essay topics:

Now that you have landed on this page much in advance, let’s touch some base on the prescribed May 2022 theory of knowledge essay titles. Furtheremore, you will find several ToK essay 2022 samples completed by our theory of knowledge essay writers .

1. “Can there be knowledge that is independent of culture? Discuss with reference to mathematics and one other are of knowledge.” + SAMPLE

If  Math as a subject  is something you are passionate about, this is the perfect topic for you. Here, you need to talk about mathematics and the relation that culture has to it. The best way to explore this topic is to talk about the universality of mathematics in terms of the subject being one that is extremely objective. The same formulae are used to solve problems in mathematics world over. However, when we talk about a different area of knowledge like human sciences or art, we can explore how these are highly subjective in nature. Hence, contrasting the role of culture in these two areas of knowledge can help understand this much better.

2. To what extent do you agree with the claim that ‘there’s a world of difference between truth and facts’ (Maya Angelou)? Answer with reference to two areas of knowledge. + SAMPLE

Including two areas of knowledge may get a handful, but it’s not to say that this won’t be an interesting ToK essay because of how subjective and debatable it is. In this essay, you have to talk about the fine line of difference between truth and facts. The best approach here is through the use of examples. It can be quite difficult to understand this for someone who does not have any prior idea of the substantial difference between the two. For this reason, pick out something that you are familiar with, and then highlight how the truth and facts differ in these.

3. Is there solid justification for regarding knowledge in the natural sciences more highly than knowledge in another area of knowledge? Discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.

Science is the most important source of knowledge and information. It gives us the solutions we need in our everyday functionality and helps in unfolding the mystery of the world. If you are a science geek, this is the perfect topic for you to proceed with. If you decide to go with this topic, then it is best that you give examples from the sciences and highlight how these can be evidence based, and hence proved to be right or wrong. Contrasting this with something more subjective like the human sciences can help shed light on this in the best possible way. The point that you need to highlight here is how natural sciences as a subject is one that is highly evidence based, whereas other areas of knowledge are subjective, and different meanings can come out of those.

4. How do historians and human scientists give knowledge meaning through the telling of stories? Discuss with reference to history and the human sciences.

Storytelling is an art and historians and scientists have been doing that for decades with their findings about life on the earth. This topic requires an essential link between these two disciplines. The idea is to shed light on what storytelling mainly is, and how storytelling can help gain insightful knowledge in different situations. The idea behind using these two areas of knowledge is that these are as such that storytelling is very common in these. So give examples of how historians and human scientists have come up with evidence through the use of stories, and how it has been helpful in people understanding things in a much better way,

5. How can we distinguish between good and bad interpretations? Discuss with reference to the arts and one other area of knowledge. + SAMPLE

Gut feelings and interpretations are indeed important human fundamentals. This is a fun topic to play around with and if you wish, you can get into the depths of multicultural elements around interpretations and discuss how they vary geographically as well. The way that human beings interpret things differs greatly from situation and situation. Not just that, but there are also several other factors that affect our understanding of things, which essentially means that our interpretation will also differ.

6. If we conclude that there is some knowledge we should not pursue on ethical grounds, how can we determine the boundaries of acceptable investigation within an area of knowledge? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.

This is a common debate – the correlation between law and ethics. If you like to take a controversial front in a topic, this essay topic might be the perfect fit for you! Ethics in itself is something that is so highly debatable based on the opinions and outlook of different people. So outlining your own definition and boundaries of ethics, you can talk about the role that ethics plays when it comes to knowledge. This can be a very interesting topic for you to work on if you can highlight the different role that ethics plays in different areas of knowledge based on several different schools of thought.

The year 2023:

• November 2023 TOK essay prompts
• November 2022 prescribed TOK essay titles

Previous years prompts:

• November 2021 ToK Essay titles
• May 2021 Theory of Knowledge essay prompts

Now you know about the ToK essay topics you can expect for May. Plan ahead, don’t mess with the TOK essay word count , and start doing your research.

⏩ And in case you feel you  need a hand with the ToK essay , you know where to come! ⏪

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NOVEMBER 2022 TOK ESSAY PRESCRIBED TITLES – KEY WORDS AND PHRASES

The first step in breaking down a prescribed title is carefully picking apart / analyzing the key words in it

1. Within an area of knowledge is it more important to have credibility or power? Discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.

There are many aspects to credibility .  A person can have credibility because of their job title, research they have published, reputation, etc.  An institution can also have credibility because of its reputation, its history, ground-breaking research or products it is responsible for, etc.

An individual can have power for some of the same reasons they have credibility.  There can definitely be overlap between power and credibility but with this prescribed title you should focus on distinguishing between them.  Consider, for example, some world leader who have credibility but not much power and others who have a significant amount of power but not much credibility.

One exercise for this prescribed title would be to make a chart of individuals, institutions, publications, etc. and note how and why they have credibility and / or power. After that take a closer look at each one and judge whether in each case whether it is credibility or power that is more important.

With November 2022 prescribed title #1 is extremely important that you directly and clearly argue whether credibility or power is more important.  The importance must also be directly and clearly linked to knowledge.

2. If pushed too far, can open-mindedness itself become restrictive? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.

The phrase “pushed too far” needs to be addressed in an essay on November 2022 prescribed title #2.  You may find specific examples that have a solid link to “open-mindedness” but don’t have an obvious connection to “pushed too far.”  Regardless, you must still identify in the specific example how open-mindedness has been pushed too far.  Here are some examples of “pushed too far”:

• Conclusions about a research project that have been pushed farther than the evidence can support
• A new trend in art that that has been pushed so far that it loses its connection to its cultural / social context
• A country pushing too far to remove a set of environmental laws / regulations which means that officials are restricted in the ways they can protect the environment
• A translator making considerable changes to ideas in the original text that some meanings have been pushed too far from the author’s original intent

“Open-mindedness” is obviously the heart of this prescribed title. This broad phrase (to be honest, every phrase in a prescribed title is broad) means different things in different situations.  Open-mindedness could mean making changes to a traditional kind of art in an attempt to modernize it and appeal to a new audience. One example of this is “ Super Kabuki ” which is modern form of the traditional Japanese drama. 

Open-mindedness could also include an academic incorporating ideas from another discipline.  Psychohistory is one example of a field that incorporate ideas from many disciplines, but some have labelled it a pseudoscience. 

“Restrictive” is the last key word in this prescribed title. Perhaps the most constructive way to interpret this key phrase is “having a negative effect on knowledge production / acquisition.” A TOK essay on November 2022 prescribed title #2 should examine ways in which open-mindedness has both positive and negative (i.e. “restrictive”) effects on knowledge.

3. Is it better to “have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned” (adapted from Richard Feynman)? Discuss with reference to mathematics and one other area of knowledge.

The “ Is it better to… ” part of November prescribed title #3 should not be overlooked.  If you choose this prescribed title your thesis must directly answer the question.

The phrase “ questions that can’t be answered ” is the first key phrase in November prescribed title #3 that needs to be addressed.  First of all, there is some debate as to whether some questions have been answered or not.  One researcher may consider a question answered but other another researcher may disagree.

Also, consider why some kinds of questions cannot be answered.  In history, for example, some questions cannot be answered because of a lack of definitive sources.  Ambiguity in language in a document may mean the source could be interpreted in different ways which makes is difficult to answer particular questions.  In the arts, some questions cannot be answered definitively because of the interpretive nature of art. Or perhaps a particular piece of art is so closely connected to a specific culture / society that it cannot be used to answer some questions.

In other cases there are theoretical questions that cannot be practically researched and therefore the questions cannot be answered definitively.  Also, some research which could provide answers to some questions cannot be conducted for ethical reasons.  Some medical / psychological / social experiments that were done in the past that may have provided information are not longer able to be conducted.

There are a number different possible approaches to the phrase “ answers that can’t be questioned. ”  One obvious one is religion, where in some questions there are believed to be absolute answers than cannot be questioned.  However, this is not true in all aspects of all religions – questioning is a significant part of many religious beliefs.

Some specific examples show that there are answers for a particular situation but the underlying mechanism isn’t understood well enough to be able to question it.

In other cases, there are answer that cannot be questioned because the person or group that has provided the answers has some sort of authority.  That authority may or may not prove beneficial to producing some kinds of knowledge.  A dictator, for example, may be able to use fear to gain information about political rivals but that style of leadership obviously has significant blind spots.  Dictators are not known for valuing knowledge that contradicts his / his beliefs.

In rare cases (e.g. there are some in mathematics) a question has been answered so irrefutably that there seems to be no point in questioning the answer.

4. Why do we seek indisputable evidence when it is so often unattainable? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.

The first key word / phrase is November prescribed title #4 is actually “ why. ”  It is important to recognize that this question isn’t focused on how , but why .  It may seem obvious but far too many TOK students lose marks in their essay because they have not focused carefully and precisely enough on the key words. If you choose this prescribed title, your essay might discuss how indisputable evidence is sought in an AOK or specific example, but only to the extent that it helps answer the why . 

Different individuals, groups, disciplines, etc. may have very different reasons for why they are seeking indisputable evidence.  Even two medical researchers can potentially have different motivations for trying to find indisputable evidence.   Consider the importance of “indisputable evidence” in different AOKs.

You need to look carefully at a variety of specific examples that will help you answer the “ why ” in the prescribed title.  Make sure the specific examples you focus on have direct and in-depth connections to the key terms in November 2022 TOK prescribed title #4.

“Seek ” is part of the prescribed title and is not just a throw-away word between more important ones.  There are numerous ways in which individuals and groups “ seek ” knowledge and this is something to consider.

As for the word “ indisputable,” you will find that there are a variety of standards as to when evidence becomes “ indisputable.” Also, in some AOKs it may be more important than in others to find “indisputable evidence.”

The last specific key word / phrase in November prescribed title #4 is “ unattainable. ”  Make sure you consider why is it so difficult to find this level of certainty in the specific examples you are looking at. 

Your essay needs to not only address effectively each of the key words in November prescribed title #4, it needs to do so in a comprehensive way that brings the different threads of the prescribed title.

5. To what extent do you agree with the directive to “measure what is measurable and make measurable what is not so” (Galileo Galilei)? Answer with reference to the human sciences and one other area of knowledge.

November TOK prescribed title #5 starts with “To what extent do you agree…” This means that you should strongly consider both sides of the “directive.”  It is perfectly fine to write a TOK essay on #5 where in some areas you agree and some you disagree with the “directive.”  In fact, if you make solid in-depth arguments on both sides you may show a better understanding than if you were to write a one-sided essay.

The phrase “ measure what is measurable and make measurable what is not so ” presumes that measurement is a key element in the production and acquisition of knowledge.  Since November 2022 TOK essay prescribed title #5 starts with “ To what extent ” you do not have to agree with the prescribed title. 

There are other areas that can be vastly improved with measurement and improvements in measurement methodology.  The analysis and interpretation of a measurement is also a key factor in ensuring that the measurement is productive.

Some AOKs rely heavily on measurements and the data from the measurements can indicate whether a line of research, a medicine, or a building site is valid or not.  Other AOKs may use different kinds of measurements for different purposes.  Within each AOK there are also vastly different ways that measurements are taken and used. 

Measurement is important but it does does not guarantee accuracy or validity.  Measurements can be performed incorrectly, and even accurate measurements can be misinterpreted or misused. 

If you choose November 2022 TOK essay prescribed title #5 make sure that you look carefully for a solid set of specific examples that have in-depth links to both sides of the measurement debate.

6. If the artist has freedom to interpret past events in ways that are denied to the historian, is this an asset or an obstacle to our understanding of the past? Discuss with reference to the arts and history.

November 2022 TOK prescribed title #6 is a bit more prescriptive than the others.  You are limited to the arts and history and you are also limited to discussing the past.  That does not necessarily mean it is bad choice but be aware of the boundaries of this prescribed title.

If you look carefully at the first sentence of November 2022 TOK prescribed title #6 it seems quite clear that you have to accept the statement that “ the artist has freedom to interpret past events in ways that are denied to the historian ” if you pick this prescribed title. Trying to argue that a historian has more freedom than an artist seems to be pointless.

Consider the ways in which an artist interprets past events and compare and contrast those ways with a historian’s ways.  Think carefully about why certain similarities and differences exist – go back and look through the knowledge framework for each AOK. 

After that, go through each of the ways and consider whether the freer ways that the artist has compared to the historian is a positive and a negative.  The artist’s interpretive freedom can allow greater forms of expression and creativity.  It also can give a voice to a greater range of people.  This freedom, however, can negatively effect 

Keep in mind that the prescribed title uses the terms “artist” “historian” and not “the arts” and “history.”  It is a subtle difference but keep it in mind.

It is extremely important that you are clear and specific in your discussion and analysis of “ our understanding of the past .”  You need pick specific examples carefully that allow you do this.

The second part of the prescribed title “is this an asset or an obstacle to our understanding of the past” means that you need to consider both sides of the debate – you argue that it is an asset or an obstacle or both.

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IB ToK Essay Titles and Topics: May 2023

Here are links to ideas and suggestions relating to the the six May 2023 IB ToK Essay topics:

• Topic 1. Is replicability necessary in the production of knowledge? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.
• Topic 2. For artists and natural scientists, which is more important: what can be explained or what cannot be explained? Discuss with reference to the arts and the natural sciences.
• Topic 3. Does it matter if our acquisition of knowledge happens in "bubbles" where some information and voices are excluded? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.
• Topic 4. Do you agree that it is "astonishing that so little knowledge can give us so much power" (Bertrand Russell)? Discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.
• Topic 5. Are visual representations always helpful in the communication of knowledge? Discuss with reference to the human sciences and mathematics.
• Topic 6. To what extent is the knowledge we produce determined by the methodologies we use? Discuss with reference to history and one other area of knowledge.

Title 1: Is replicability necessary in the production of knowledge? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.

Thoughts to consider with essay 1 include:

• the distinction between necessary and sufficient requirements
• the relation between replicability and objectivity
• the relation between replicability and sharable perspectives

These thoughts, and others, will be developed here shortly: come back soon!

Title 2: For artists and natural scientists, which is more important: what can be explained or what cannot be explained? Discuss with reference to the arts and the natural sciences.

Thoughts to consider with essay 2 include:

• the relation between explicability and effability
• the limits of language and expressibility
• the relation between explanation, understanding and knowledge

Title 3: Does it matter if our acquisition of knowledge happens in "bubbles" where some information and voices are excluded? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.

Thoughts to consider with essay 3 include:

• can there be purely subjective knowledge?
• can there be purely objective knowledge?
• what is required to share another's perspective?

Title 4: Do you agree that it is "astonishing that so little knowledge can give us so much power" (Bertrand Russell)? Discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.

Thoughts to consider with essay 4 include:

• the varieties or types of power
• is knowledge always inversely proportional to power
• could one have power without any knowledge?

Title 5: Are visual representations always helpful in the communication of knowledge? Discuss with reference to the human sciences and mathematics.

Thoughts to consider with essay 5 include:

• the relevance of truth to representation
• the distinction between practical and theoretical knowledge
• is written language a visual representation?

Title 6: To what extent is the knowledge we produce determined by the methodologies we use? Discuss with reference to history and one other area of knowledge.

Thoughts to consider with essay 6 include:

• the difference between a method and a methodology
• can any knowledge be unmethodically?
• must a methodology be consciously deployed?
• 1. Is replicability necessary in the production of knowledge? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.
• 2. For artists and natural scientists, which is more important: what can be explained or what cannot be explained? Discuss with reference to the arts and the natural sciences.
• 3. Does it matter if our acquisition of knowledge happens in "bubbles" where some information and voices are excluded? Discuss with reference to two areas of knowledge.
• 4. Do you agree that it is "astonishing that so little knowledge can give us so much power" (Bertrand Russell)? Discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.
• 5. Are visual representations always helpful in the communication of knowledge? Discuss with reference to the human sciences and mathematics.
• 6. To what extent is the knowledge we produce determined by the methodologies we use? Discuss with reference to history and one other area of knowledge.
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IB TOK Exhibition examples

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Not sure what to search for? You can always look through our example Theory of Knowledge coursework below for inspiration.

All TOK Exhibition Examples

Filter exemplars, what is the relationship between personal experience and knowledge, what role does imagination play in producing knowledge about the world, want to get full marks for your tok exhibition allow us to review it for you 🎯, on what grounds might we doubt a claim, how can we distinguish between knowledge, belief and opinion, fast track your coursework with mark schemes moderated by ib examiners. upgrade now 🚀, should some knowledge not be sought on ethical grounds, how can we know that current knowledge is an improvement upon past knowledge, is bias inevitable in the production of knowledge, does some knowledge belong only to particular communities of knowers, what is the relationship between personal experience and knowledge, how important are material tools in the production or acquisition of knowledge, what challenges are raised by the dissemination and/or communication of knowledge, who owns knowledge, what is the relationship between knowledge and culture, what constraints are there on the pursuit of knowledge, what counts as a good justification for a claim, prompt: to what extent is certainty attainable , how is current knowledge shaped by its historical development, can new knowledge change established values or beliefs, does our knowledge depend on our interactions with other knowers, does all knowledge impose ethical obligations of the knower, what counts as good evidence for a claim, what is the relationship between knowledge and culture, “what role does imagination play in producing knowledge about the world“, how might the context in which knowledge is presented influence whether it is accepted or rejected, what challenges are raised by the dissemination and/or communication of knowledge, what role do experts play in influencing our consumption or acquisition of knowledge, 8. to what extent is certainty attainable, are some things unknowable, are some things unknowable, are some types of knowledge more useful than others.

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The poisonous global politics of water

Polarisation makes it harder to adapt to climate change.

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T HE WATER thieves come at night. They arrive in trucks, suck water out of irrigation canals and drive off. This infuriates Alejandro Meneses, who owns a big vegetable farm in Coquimbo, a parched province of Chile. In theory his landholding comes with the right to pour 40 litres of river-water a second on his fields. But thanks to drought, exacerbated by theft, he can get just a tenth of that, which he must negotiate with his neighbours. If the price of food goes up because farmers like him cannot grow enough, “there will be a big social problem,” he says.

The world’s water troubles can be summed up in six words: “Too little, too much, too dirty”, says Charlie Iceland of the World Resources Institute ( WRI ), a think-tank. Climate change will only aggravate the problem. Already, roughly half of humanity lives under what the WRI calls “highly water-stressed conditions” for at least one month a year.

Adapting will require not only new technology but also a new politics. Villages, regions and countries will need to collaborate to share scarce water and build flood defences. The needs of farmers, who use 70% of the world’s freshwater, must be balanced with those of the urbanites they feed, as well as industry. In short, a politics of trust, give-and-take and long-term planning is needed. Yet the spread of “them-and-us” demagoguery makes this harder. A global study by Jens Marquardt and Markus Lederer of the University of Darmstadt notes that populists stir up anger, sow distrust of science and dismiss climate policies as the agenda of liberal elites.

Around 97% of the water on Earth sits in the salty ocean; land-, lake- and river-bound life depends on the remaining 3%. Although the amount of water on Earth is immutable, the daedal workings that move it around are not. The water cycle is made up of a dizzying number of processes, many of them non-linear, which operate across manifold timescales and areas. All are, ultimately, driven by the energy of the sun, which makes seawater evaporate, plants transpire and, by disproportionately heating the tropics, powers ocean currents and weather systems.

Global warming alters the ways water behaves. It intensifies the water cycle, increasing the severity of both very wet events and very dry ones . Warmer air can hold more moisture, which also evaporates more readily out of warmer oceans. More moisture in the atmosphere means more water falls back as rain or snow. This increases the likelihood of heavier deluges in wet regions —and of less potential precipitation in drier spots. “Thirsty” air there is more likely to suck moisture out of the soil, prolonging and worsening droughts.

The UN reckons that flooding affected around 1.6bn people between 2002 and 2021, killing nearly 100,000 and causing economic losses of over $830bn. Droughts in the same period affected 1.4bn, killed over 20,000 and cost $170bn. The World Bank estimates that by 2099, the global supply of freshwater per head will fall by 29% from what it was in 2000; and by a massive 67% in Africa, while rising by 28% in Europe (see chart).

In Chile, “too little” is becoming a crisis for which politics is nowhere close to finding a solution. It is the most water-stressed country in South America. “Santiago [the sprawling capital] is all right now, but in ten years’ time it might not be,” warns Jessica López, the minister for public works.

For centuries, Chileans who wanted water simply took it from streams and rivers, or sank wells to pump groundwater. But as parts of the country dry up, water rules written in wetter times are increasingly out of date. Intense distrust between left and right—in a country that has seen massive protests in recent years—makes them hard to revise.

Conservative governments granted many landowners “water rights”, allowing them to pump a generous amount each day, free of charge and for ever. Today, the total volume of granted water rights far exceeds what can sustainably be extracted. So farmers like Mr Meneses have had to sit down with their local water association and agree on how much everyone can pump. Yet some people cheat, sinking illicit boreholes. Tension between big farmers, small farmers and villagers is high. “We’re surrounded by farms with illegal wells, and that’s why we have no water,” says Erica Díaz, a hard-up villager who relies on water trucks and recycles her washing-up water onto her vegetable patch.

Conservative Chilean landowners think of “water rights” as a natural part of property rights. But water is not like land. A house need not encroach upon a neighbour; but a well depletes groundwater for everyone. Granting a fixed volume of water rights in perpetuity is nuts.

Meanwhile, politicians and activists on the Chilean left push the notion that water is a human right. A draft constitution , backed by the current government but rejected by voters in 2022, referred to “water” 71 times, affirming everyone’s right to it, especially if they were poor or indigenous. Yet the draft gave little clue as to how that water might be delivered.

The trickiness of water politics is on display at a meeting of small farmers in Punitaqui, a town in northern Chile. Everyone agrees water is too scarce. Some farmers complain big companies have taken an unfair share. Others complain of widespread criminality—including a water inspector getting death threats. An expert shows how to use ultrasound to detect leaks, which are common. Yet many farmers in the room admit they don’t even know where their local pipes are buried.

In one sense Chile has plenty of water: to the west is the Pacific Ocean. But getting a permit to build a desalination plant can take more than a decade. The problems are political more than technical. Just for permission to use a bit of shoreline for a plant, a firm must apply to the ministry of defence—taking three or four years. The archaeological-monuments council needs to be assured nothing of cultural interest is being damaged. That can take another three or four years. And then transporting water is a bureaucratic morass.

Chile needs to think about water logically, says Ulrike Broschek of Fundación Chile, a think-tank. Desalination is useful, but unless powered by renewable energy it is bad for the climate. By one estimate, global emissions from desalination could match all of those from Britain by 2025.

In Chile, bigger, cheaper gains are there to be made. Farms, which account for four-fifths of water use, could use more drip irrigation and hydroponics. If farmers paid directly for water, they would use it more efficiently. Cities, instead of having impermeable pavement everywhere, could use “rain gardens” to capture rain and replenish the groundwater below. And the rules need to be simpler: 56 public bodies regulate water, with no overall co-ordinator, points out Ms Broschek.

Ms López, at least, offers an encouragingly pragmatic view. A pending bill will speed up permits for desalination, she promises, and more water infrastructure will be built. More broadly, she argues that water “needs to have an appropriate price”.

Elsewhere, sensible water pricing is as rare as it is necessary. Even in places where it has been shown to work, it can be politically fraught. Take Australia, another dry country where farmers use more water than everyone else combined. Federal and state governments thrashed out an agreement in 2012 to conserve water in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s biggest system of interconnecting rivers. It relied on an existing scheme allowing farmers to buy or sell water entitlements. The goal was to save 3,200 gigalitres (gl) by 2024, either by “buying back” entitlements from farmers or by investing in projects that could save equivalent amounts, such as more-efficient irrigation systems.

Australia has conserved about 2,130gl of water, equivalent to over 20% of what was previously consumed. Meanwhile, farm output has risen. It helps greatly that the country is rich. The government has pumped A$13bn ($8.8bn) into water-saving. Systems for measuring water use are sophisticated. When Malcolm Holm, a dairy farmer, needs to irrigate his pastures, he orders water online. Sensors measure out the volumes. Locks are raised, and it trickles into his fields. The system sustains his 1,200 cattle.

Yet nearly everyone is unhappy. Environmentalists say the targets should be more ambitious. Farmers say they are too strict. No one is forced to sell their water to the government, but because many do, the system reduces the total amount available to trade for irrigation. This is one reason why water prices have risen in the past decade. That is the point: higher prices spur conservation. But they also threaten rural livelihoods. Protests have erupted in rural New South Wales. “Pre-schools are struggling to get children in. Footy clubs haven’t got enough players,” says Linda Fawns, a councillor in Deniliquin, a small town. A local agricultural mechanic, Jamie Tasker, claims the government is “scaremongering” about the environment and squeezing irrigation to shore up city votes.

Almost nine out of ten Australians live in cities, and politicians, certainly, do not want their taps to run dry. But priorities change as parties alternate in power. The (conservative) Liberal Party, which is more pro-farmer and reluctant to do much about climate change, stopped doing water buybacks. The Labor Party, in federal power since 2022, resumed them.

And then there is water theft. Last year a farmer was fined a mere A$150,000 for stealing over A$1.1m-worth of groundwater. “Theft is a business model, because fines don’t fit the crime,” grumbles Robert McBride, an outback sheep farmer.

In 2026 the Murray-Darling plan comes up for review. As droughts grow worse, the government ought to buy back more water, thus raising water prices and driving the least water-efficient farms out of business. They won’t go quietly.

From conflict to compromise

If the politics of water is touchy in well-off, stable places like Australia and Chile, it is explosive in poorer countries. In many of them, climate change seems to be making the weather more erratic, for example by magnifying the variability inherent in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation , a global driver of monsoons and their rains.

In April and May floods in Kenya were the worst in memory, with bridges, schools and railways destroyed. Perhaps 300 people died. Following years of drought, the government was caught off-guard, says Kennedy Odede of SHOFCO , an NGO serving Kenya’s slums. “When it started raining, people were happy. Nobody was expecting there to be too much.”

The government should have been better informed. Persistent drought paves the way for flooding, because the soil hardens and the water has nowhere to go but sideways. Kenya’s populist president, William Ruto, ignored warnings last year of impending floods.

Benninah Nazau, a vegetable-hawker in Mathare, a Nairobi slum, recalls rain pounding on her tin roof at 5pm on April 23rd. When she peered out, she saw tables and chairs swept along by the nearby river. By 1am the water was surging through her home. She grabbed her five children and took them to higher ground, unable to salvage any possessions. “It was life or death.” Neighbours were carried off in the deluge.

Political dysfunction makes cities less resilient. Rules barring the construction of homes dangerously close to watercourses are ignored (Ms Nazau’s home was only six metres away). Landowners bribe officials in order to flout planning codes. Builders pave over wetlands.

Whereas scarcity has an obvious solution—higher prices—the problem of too much water does not. Flood defences must be built and people discouraged from living in the riskiest places. But where, and how? Kenya’s government is sponsoring tree-planting along Nairobi’s river banks, to help hold back future floods. A moratorium has been placed on new building permits in the city. Officials are evicting people from homes built 30 metres or less from the riverbanks and destroying the buildings. In the worst-affected part of Mathare, all that remains is rubble and a stench of sewage. Compensation for each household was 10,000 shillings ($77.60).

Many residents are resisting by refusing to leave their shacks. Others want more compensation. Many distrust the government, widely seen as corrupt. Some Kenyans even think politicians deliberately caused the flooding, to pave the way for the slum clearances that followed. Belief in such far-fetched conspiracy theories makes co-operation between state and citizens less likely.

Squabbles over water can turn violent. The Water, Peace and Security partnership, a global body, crunches data to predict water-related conflicts. Its latest update, in June, noted that herders and farmers across the Sahel are fighting over scarce water. Drought-related skirmishes are expected in South Africa, Madagascar and Mozambique, and floods in Iran and Afghanistan have displaced populations into areas where they may not be welcome.

Tensions between states are common, too. As rivers grow more erratic, negotiations between downstream countries and upstream ones may grow more fraught. Dry countries (such as China and the Gulf states) are buying up farmland in Africa and the Americas to secure future supplies of food. In effect, they are importing vast quantities of water in the form of wheat and soyabeans. This could become a political flashpoint.

Water wars between states are fortunately rare. But Egypt is furious about an Ethiopian dam that could disrupt its access to the Nile river, from which it gets nine-tenths of its water. Talks over how to share the water keep failing. Egyptian officials hint they might go to war. They may be bluffing, but no one can be sure.

To avoid water wars, countries need to use water more efficiently (Egypt wastes it copiously) and negotiate more amicably. Much work needs to be done in both areas. The world spends roughly 0.5% of GDP on water, the World Bank estimates, but 28% of allocated public funds go unspent. Meanwhile, a typical water utility has “efficiency losses” (leaks and theft) of around 16%. As for amicable haggling, three-fifths of the world’s 310 international river basins lack frameworks to govern disputes.

Another thing that makes water policy hard is that many people—such as those whose homes are too costly to defend from floods, or whose crops wither—will eventually have to move. Chilean vineyards are already shifting south. Outback towns will shrink. Inundated Africans and Asians will keep migrating to cities or abroad.

Rich countries may be able to help compensate those whose homes and fields are rendered worthless, but the process will be disruptive everywhere. Nonetheless, it should be manageable. The WRI estimates that solving the world’s water crises would cost 1% of GDP per year until 2030, and that every $1 invested in sensible ways to do so would yield $6.80 in benefits. However, getting the politics right will require calm, collaborative leadership, disproving the epigram attributed, perhaps erroneously, to Mark Twain: “Whisky’s for drinking; water’s for fighting.” ■

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This article appeared in the International section of the print edition under the headline “The poisonous politics of water”

From the August 31st 2024 edition

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