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Attend the Executive Briefing panel featuring Celent's Michael Bernard, and meet with him in New York. Finovate is the world’s premier fintech s…

Ready, Set, Go - Accelerate Your GenAI Roadmap: Celent Generative AI Symposium

Ready, Set, Go: Accelerate Your GenAI Roadmap Generative AI remains a provocative topic among financial institutions. As the regulatory environm…

Embracing the Future of Bill Payments, Today

In today's rapidly evolving business landscape, the role of the receivables function has become increasingly strategic. With rising costs and in…

Association for Financial Professionals, 2024

Meet up with Colin Kerr at the AFP 2024 conference, the most important North American event for treasury and finance. Thousands of treasury and…

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Our Model Awards highlight financial institution initiatives with the best use of technology in Banking, Insurance, Wealth Management, Risk & Compliance, Buy Side and Sell Side. The Awards are designed to answer the deceptively simple question:  What would it look like for a firm to do everything right with today’s technology? We announced our 2024 Model Award winners during our flagship Innovation & Insight event . Submissions for our 2025 program will open later this year.

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By Kieran Hines, Principal Analyst - Retail Banking AI has become a cornerstone of the banking industry, revolutionizing workflows, customer-fac…

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Equity Research

Investment banking, key differences, special considerations, the bottom line.

• Career Advice

Equity Research vs. Investment Banking: What's the Difference?

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Equity Research vs. Investment Banking: An Overview

Investment banking may no longer be the undisputed first choice for the best and brightest. Instead of streaming into investment banking , many top graduates are now opting for careers in management consulting, technology, or launching their own startups. While the allure of investment banking may have dimmed, due to long hours and a stressful work environment, the industry still attracts many workers. Equity research is also another destination for prospective financial employees.

Equity research is sometimes viewed as the unglamorous, lower-paid cousin of investment banking. The reality, though, differs from this widely held perception. In order to help you formulate your own opinion, here's a head-to-head comparison of equity research (sell-side research that is conducted by the research departments of broker-dealers) and investment banking in 10 key areas.

Key Takeaways

• A career in finance can take many paths, including investment banking and equity research.
• Investment bankers work on M&A deals and issue new securities to the market.
• Equity researchers conduct thorough analysis and research of companies and their share price to issue investment recommendations.
• Each role has different responsibilities and hours, which will suit prospective candidates differently.
• The pay for investment bankers is a bit higher in the early career stage, especially when bonuses are included, and this gap further widens over the course of a career.

Equity researchers analyze stocks to help portfolio managers make better-informed investment decisions. Equity researchers employ problem-solving skills, data interpretation, and various other tools to understand and predict a given security’s behavioral outlook.

This often involves quantitatively analyzing a stock’s statistical data in relation to recent market activity. Finally, equity researchers may be tasked with developing investment models and screening tools that identify trading strategies that help  manage portfolio risk .

Equity researchers are responsible for identifying patterns with current market price changes and using this information to create algorithms that identify profitable stock investment opportunities. The equity researcher should be able to understand the idiosyncratic differences between various international markets in order to cross-compare domestic and foreign stocks.

The low end of the salary range is $52,000, while the high end sits at $147,000. The average salary is over 93,000 as of 2024. Private equity firms and other financial services companies are the chief employers of equity researchers. The majority of these jobs are based in New York City, although firms are increasingly offering positions in major metropolitan hubs like Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco.

Investment banking is a specific division of banking related to the raising of capital for other companies, governments, and other entities. Investment banks underwrite new debt and equity securities for all types of corporations; aid in the sale of securities; and help to facilitate  mergers and acquisitions , reorganizations, and broker trades for both institutions and private investors.

Investment banks also provide guidance to issuers regarding the issue and placement of stock. Investment banking positions can include elements of consulting, banking, capital market analysis,  research , trading, and much more. Each requires a specific skills to be developed.

A degree in finance, economics, accounting, or mathematics is a good start for an investment banking career. However, most investment banking jobs focus their recruiting on elite universities.

Those interested in investment banking should strongly consider pursuing a  Master of Business Administration  (MBA) or other professional qualifications.

Great people skills are a huge positive in any investment banking position. Even dedicated research analysts spend a lot of time working as part of a team or consulting with clients. Some positions require more of a sales touch than others, but comfort in a professional social environment is key. Other important skills include communication skills (explaining concepts to clients or other departments) and a high degree of initiative.

1. Work-Life Balance

Equity research is the clear winner here. Although 12-hour days on weekdays are the norm for equity research associates and analysts, there are at least phases of relative calm. The busiest times include initiating coverage on a sector or specific stock, and earnings season when corporate earnings reports have to be analyzed rapidly.

The hours in investment banking are almost always brutal, with 60-80 hours per week being a baseline for investment banking analysts (the lowest on the totem pole). During busy times, work weeks can be up to 100 hours or more.

There has been a growing backlash against the atrocious hours demanded by investment banking analysts. In response, Goldman Sachs has enacted a rule guaranteeing that bankers will not have to work between 9 p.m. Friday and 9 a.m. on Sunday. These restrictions may do little to change the "work hard, play hard" culture of investment banking.

The most common complaint of those who have quit investment banking is that the total lack of work-life balance leads to burnout. That complaint is seldom heard from those employed in equity research.

Major financial jobs tend to be concentrated in major financial hubs such as New York, Chicago, London, and Hong Kong. This is no different for equity research analysts and especially investment bankers, many of whom are paid to relocate to their firm's home city.

2. Visibility

Equity research is the winner in this area as well. Associates and junior analysts often receive recognition for their work by being named on research reports that are distributed to a firm's sales force, clients, and media outlets.

Since senior analysts are recognized experts on the companies they cover in a sector, they are sought after by the media for comments on these companies after they report earnings or announce a material development.

Investment bankers, on the other hand, toil in relative obscurity at the junior level; however, their visibility increases significantly as they climb the investment banking ladder, especially if they are part of a team that works on large, prestigious deals.

3. Advancement

Investment banking wins in this area. There is a clear path with defined time frames for career progression in investment banking. This begins with the analyst position (two to three years), then transitions to an associate position (three-plus years), after which one is in line to become a vice president and eventually director or managing director.

The career path in equity research is less clearly defined but generally goes as follows—associate, analyst, senior analyst, and, finally, vice president or director of research. Within the firm, however, investment bankers probably have better prospects for reaching the very top, since they are deal makers and manage relationships with the firm's biggest clients.

Research analysts, on the other hand, might be viewed as number crunchers who do not have the same ability to bring in big business.

4. Job Functions

Investment banking probably wins here as well, albeit only over the longer term. Equity research associates start off by doing a lot of financial modeling and analysis under the supervision of the analyst who is responsible for the coverage of a specific sector or group of companies.

Also, associates also communicate to a limited extent with buy-side clients, top management of the companies under coverage, and the firm's traders and salespeople. Over time, their responsibilities evolve to less financial modeling and a greater degree of report writing and formulating investment opinions and theses; however, there isn't a great deal of variability in the job functions of associates and analysts. What varies is the relative time spent on these functions.

Investment bankers, on the other hand, spend the first few years of their careers immersed in financial modeling, comparative analysis, and preparing presentations and pitchbooks . But as they climb the ladder, they get the opportunity to work on exciting deals such as mergers and acquisitions or initial public offerings.

Research analysts only get this opportunity occasionally, when they are brought "over the wall" (the "wall" refers to the mandatory separation between investment banking and research) to assist on a specific deal involving a company that they know inside out.

5. Education and Designations

A bachelor's degree is a must for any aspiring equity research analyst or investment banking associate. Common areas of study include economics, accounting, finance, engineering, computer science, mathematics, or even physics. While it is possible to get hired with just a bachelor's degree, further qualifications can be used to get hired. They are also great for furthering one's career.

The difference between an equity researcher and an investment banker is determined by what post-graduate credentials are usually obtained. Most equity researchers earn a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and most investment bankers get a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree.

The CFA, widely regarded as the gold standard for security analysis, has become almost mandatory for anyone wishing to pursue a career in equity research. But while the CFA can be completed at a fraction of the cost of an MBA program, it is an arduous program that needs a great deal of commitment over many years. Being a self-study program, the CFA does not provide an instant professional network as an MBA class does.

The MBA curriculum, by virtue of being more business-oriented and less investment-oriented than the CFA, makes it more suitable for the investment banking profession; however, the competition to get into the best business schools—which is where most Wall Street firms hire their associates—is intense. Many aspiring investment bankers enter into some other financial field, perhaps working as analysts or advisors, and work toward their MBA.

Investment Bankers are required to pass the FINRA Series 79 Investment Banking Representative Exam.

6. Skill Sets

Both jobs require a great deal of analytical and mathematical/technical skills, but this especially applies to equity research analysts. These analysts need to be able to perform complex calculations, run predictive models, and prepare financial statements with quick turnarounds.

As noted earlier, financial modeling and in-depth analysis are common to both investment bankers and research analysts in the earlier stages of their careers. Later on, the skill sets diverge, with investment bankers required to be adept at closing deals, handling large transactions, and managing client relationships.

Research analysts, on the other hand, need to be effective at both verbal and written communication and have the ability to make balanced decisions based on rigorous analysis and due diligence .

7. External Opportunities

Successful research analysts and investment bankers generally have no shortage of external opportunities because of their experience, knowledge, and skills. Research analysts are likely to gravitate toward the buy-side (i.e., money managers, hedge funds, and pension funds), while seasoned investment bankers usually join private equity or venture capital firms.

8. Barriers to Entry

Both investment banking and equity research are difficult areas to get into, but barriers to entry may be slightly lower for equity research. Investment banking tends to draw more applications, due to prestige and higher pay.

9. Conflicts of Interest

Although investment bankers and research analysts both have to steer clear of conflicts of interest , this is a bigger issue in equity research than in investment banking. This was highlighted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC)  enforcement actions against 10 leading Wall Street firms in 2003, relating to analyst conflicts during the telecom/dot-com boom and bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Under the settlement, the firms paid disgorgement and civil penalties totaling $875 million, among the highest ever imposed in civil securities enforcement actions. The 10 firms also had to agree to undertake a host of structural reforms designed to completely separate their research and investment banking arms.

10. Compensation

Both investment banking and equity research are well-paid professions, but over time, investment banking is a much more lucrative career choice.

Investment bankers are famous for their high pay and large signing bonuses. According to the online finance community "Wall Street Oasis," summer interns earn the equivalent on a pro-rata basis of around $77,000, plus a signing bonus of around $6,000 . First-year analysts earn an average salary of $80,239 in 2024, plus bonuses, according to PayScale.

Total compensation will vary greatly depending on job location, company, and the employee's performance review.

The real moneymakers, however, are investment banking associates, who earn between $150,000 and $200,000, with a 50% to 100% bonus. It is not unusual for total compensation for a senior vice president or managing director to exceed $400,000 annually.

The average equity research analyst earns over $93,000 in annual compensation in 2024, according to PayScale, plus a bonus. While it's higher than investment banking analysts starting out, this profession doesn't typically see the same magnitude of bonuses or salary growth as the career progresses. Research analysts indirectly generate revenues through sales and trading activities that are based on their recommendations.

The reputation of a firm's research department may be a significant factor in swaying a company's decision when selecting an underwriter when it has to raise capital. But even though the investment firm may make a substantial amount through underwriting fees and commissions, research analysts are prohibited from being compensated directly or indirectly from investment banking revenues.

Instead, research analysts are compensated over and above their salaries from a bonus pool. These periodic bonuses are determined by a number of factors including trading activity based on the analysts' recommendations, the success of such recommendations, the profitability of the firm, and its capital markets division and buy-side rankings.

Nonetheless, due to larger bonuses, entry-level investment bankers may receive total compensation that is higher than their research counterparts, and this gap may widen markedly over time.­

Is Equity Research the Same As Investment Banking?

No, equity research is not the same as investment banking. Both jobs have similarities but clear distinctions in overall purpose. Equity researchers evaluate companies with the goal of making investment recommendations. They analyze a company in all aspects, from its financials to its competition to its industry outlook, and its share price, to determine how the company might perform in the future and how its share price might move. Investment bankers also analyze companies in a similar fashion, but their goal is to determine whether a company is suitable for a merger or acquisition.

What Skills Do You Need for an Equity Research Job?

The skills required for an equity research job include an understanding of finance, economics, and accounting. An equity researcher must be able to analyze a company's financial statement. Equity researchers should also know financial modeling, Excel, and valuation methods. In addition to the quantitative skills required, equity researchers should be able to write well as they will be writing investment recommendations based on their quantitative analysis.

How Many Hours Does an Equity Research Associate Work?

An equity research associate typically works 55 to 60 hours per week, which can increase to 70 to 80 hours per week during earnings releases. Typically, equity researchers do not need to work weekends. The hours for an equity research associate or analyst are often less than that of an investment banker, who often has to work weekends.

Overall, if one has to make a choice between embarking on a career in equity research versus one in investment banking, factors such as work-life balance , visibility, and barriers to entry favor equity research. On the other hand, factors like prospects for advancement, job functions, and compensation tilt the scales in favor of investment banking. Ultimately, however, the choice comes down to your own skill set, personality, education, and ability to manage work pressures and conflicts of interest.

Payscale. " Average Equity Analyst Salary ."

Mergers and Inquisitions. " The Equity Research Associate: Remnant of a Dying Industry, or the Hero That Gotham Deserves ."

Career Principles. " Investment Banking Hours: The 100-Hour Work Week ."

Forbes. " After Complaints of ‘100-Hour’ Workweeks, Goldman Sachs Is Allowing Bankers To Take Off on Saturdays ."

FINRA. " Series 79 – Investment Banking Representative Exam ."

U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. " Ten of Nation's Top Investment Firms Settle Enforcement Actions Involving Conflicts of Interest Between Research and Investment Banking ."

Wall Street Oasis. " What Is a Summer Analyst (SA)? "

PayScale. " Average Investment Banking Analyst Salary ."

Wall Street Oasis. " Investment Banker Salary & Compensation, Average Bonus in Banking ."

PayScale. " Average Equity Analyst Salary ."

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. " Commission Approves Rules To Address Analyst Conflicts; SEC Also Requires Edgar Filings by Foreign Issuers ."

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An Ultimate Guide to Equity Research

This post was originally published on August 15, 2019 and was updated for relevance on July 29, 2024.

Equity research is a specialized field within the finance industry that analyzes public companies, industries, and the overall economy. It helps investors make informed decisions about buying, holding, or selling investments.

In this guide, we’ll explore equity research, its definition, how to conduct research analysis, what goes into a research report, the various roles involved, key considerations when selecting an equity research firm, career pathways into the equity research industry, and more. 

With that, let’s get started.

What is equity research?

Before we discuss equity research, it’s important to understand the concept of equity. Equity is the full ownership of an asset once its associated debts have been settled. Equity research, or “securities research,” refers to the process investment banks use to understand a company's overall equity or value. 

Equity analysts, often working within an investment bank, lead this process. They create documents that delineate the equity in question within the context of the business, its management, the broader industry, and the economic landscape.

The larger the investment bank, the more reports an equity research team will tend to produce, and the analysis included will be more detailed. Examples of analysis include:

• Review of how the macroeconomic picture is likely to affect the company
• Operational changes or investments that are likely to affect the company’s performance
• Review the company’s financial statements and explanation of changes
• Projections on the status of the company’s revenue (and share price) and where it’s headed
• Recommendations on whether to buy, hold, or sell the company’s equity

How to conduct equity research analysis

Research is the name of the game. An Equity Research Analyst is responsible for providing vetted and trusted insights to make sound and informed investment decisions. This process is typically broken into four stages: 

1. Thorough Research

Equity Research Analysts focus on specific regions and sectors. They leave no stone unturned in conducting extensive research, thoroughly reviewing financial reports, balance sheets in Excel, earnings releases, industry trends, regulatory changes, macroeconomic factors, and more that could impact the companies they are analyzing.

2. Financial Modelling & Valuation

Financial modeling involves creating mathematical representations of a company's financial performance by forecasting future results based on historical data and assumptions. Valuation is used to determine the fair value of a company's stock using methods such as discounted cash flow analysis and comparable company analysis. These tools help evaluate a company's financial health and growth potential to advise on investments.

3. Creating Equity Research Reports

Equity Research Analysts are responsible for condensing their findings into easily understandable reports for investors. We'll expand on this more in the next section. 

4. Communication Skills & Publication

Equity Research Analysts in senior or lead positions often present their findings to their organization or client base. These individuals must be able to simplify complex financial data, so strong communication and presentation skills are essential.

What is an equity research report?

Buy-side or sell-side, an equity research report typically includes the following:

• An industry research overview that covers trends and news related to competing companies.
• A company overview that includes any recent business developments and quarterly performance results.
• The equity analyst provides an investment thesis explaining the reasons behind their prediction of the stock's performance. This section also includes the target share price, which many consider the most critical aspect of the report.
• A financial model-based forecast of the company's income, cash flow, and valuation.
• Risks associated with the stock.

Difference between a career in equity research and investment banking

Investment banking and equity research are similar but have clear distinctions in their intended outcome. Investment banking is all about helping companies raise money through stocks and bonds, offering mergers and acquisitions services, and managing significant financial deals. 

Equity research involves evaluating individual stocks and providing investment advice based on their potential value and performance.

In essence, investment banking focuses on managing financial transactions, while equity research focuses on analyzing and valuing individual stocks.

When considering a career between the two, it's imperative to evaluate the following factors: 

1. Educational Background 

Both career paths require a bachelor's degree in economics, accounting, finance, or engineering. For career growth, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation is often required for Equity Research Analysts, while investment banking can require a Master of Business Administration (MBA). Additionally, investment bankers must pass the Series 79 exam , which measures the knowledge needed to perform the critical functions of an investment banking representative. 

2. Career Path 

In investment banking, the career path is straightforward. It starts with being an analyst, then an associate, and climbing to higher positions. In equity research, the career path could be more transparent. Typically, it involves transitioning from associate to analyst, senior analyst, and then to the role of vice president or director of research. Investment bankers have better opportunities to reach top positions because of their involvement in making deals and managing clients. They often go on to work for private equity firms for venture capitalists. Research analysts are frequently seen solely as number crunchers and not thought of as being able to drive substantial business growth.

3. Skill Set 

It should come as no surprise that Equity Research Analysts require strong analytical and mathematical skills to handle complex calculations, build predictive models, and prepare financial statements. They must also be proficient communicators capable of simplifying complex financial data. As for investment bankers, financial modeling and industry analysis are crucial early in their careers. However, as they advance, they transition to a sales-oriented mindset, excelling at closing deals and managing client relationships. 

4. Work-Life Balance 

Equity research is known for long hours, particularly during earnings season, but there are periods of relative calm. Investment banking is another beast, typically requiring brutal hours, often up to 100 hours per week. A recent article in Forbes highlighted that work-life balance has become a significant concern in investment banking. This is particularly after the reported deaths of two Bank of America employees who were said to be working up to 110 hours per week. 

5. Recognition 

Equity research reports offer visibility to associates and junior analysts. Senior analysts are sought after by the media for comments on the companies they cover. Junior investment bankers work in obscurity but gain visibility as they progress in their careers. Visibility for investment bankers significantly increases when they work on large, prestigious deals.

6. Compensation 

Investment banking generally offers higher earning potential compared to equity research. For example, according to Wall Street Oasis (WSO), investment banking associates earn between $150,000 and $200,000 with substantial bonuses, while senior vice presidents or managing directors earn over $400,000 annually. WSO also says entry-level analysts start between $50,000 and $80,000 and have the potential to make up to $500,000 as they grow to leadership positions.

Roles in equity research

In the world of equity research, it is crucial to understand the distinction between a buy-side and sell-side Equity Research Analyst. Below, we'll outline their respective areas of focus and ultimate objectives.

1. Sell-side analysts

Sell-side Equity Research Analysts work for investment banks and provide their clients with sell-side research and recommendations on stocks and other financial instruments. Their primary goal is to generate trading commissions and investment banking business for their firm.

2. Buy-side analysts

A buy-side Equity Research Analyst works for institutions that buy and sell securities, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, and pension funds. Their role involves researching and making investment recommendations for their firm's portfolios.

Best Equity Research Firms 

Below are some of the top-ranking equity search firms. 

• JP Morgan —J.P. Morgan’s Research team uses state-of-the-art technologies and innovative tools to provide clients with top-notch analysis and investment advice.
• Barclays —The equity research teams cover hundreds of stocks across the Americas and Europe, delivering event analysis, stock ideas, and sector themes. They collaborate with other teams to offer clients unique, cross-asset perspectives on industries and markets.
• Credit Suisse AG —The team has original research on over 3,000 companies with thought-provoking thematic analysis, differentiated trading ideas, and coordinated global views. 
• Bank of America Financial Center —The company offers comprehensive research and analysis for both institutional and retail clients. It encompasses over 4,000 companies across 35 global sectors in developed and emerging markets. Its research involves fundamental and technical analysis as well as hedging strategies.
• Morgan Stanley —Through timely, in-depth analysis of companies, industries, markets, and world economies, Morgan Stanley has earned its reputation as a leader in investment research.

Things to consider when hiring an equity research firm

When evaluating an equity research firm, it’s essential to consider the experience and reputation of its analysts, the firm’s track record of accurate stock picks and recommendations, the depth and quality of their research reports, the firm's access to company management and industry experts, their industry specialization, the firm's coverage universe, the timeliness of their research, and the overall transparency and integrity of their research process.

How to get into equity research

If you are considering entering the equity research space, you will likely need a finance, accounting, or economics background. Many professionals in this field begin with a bachelor's degree in finance or a related field. Those seeking career advancement often pursue a master's degree or a CFA designation to enhance their resume.

Research assistant,  junior analyst, or equity research associate are common entry-level roles. Advancing in your career will require gaining experience in financial analysis, modeling, and report writing. Developing a solid network of connections within the industry is also crucial for discovering new opportunities in equity research. Like all areas of business, networking is critical.

Staying up to date on the latest trends and news within the equity research space is important for understanding the workings of the stock market and developing strong analytical and critical thinking skills. This is crucial for ensuring high-quality, long-lasting success in equity research.

The Importance of Equity Research

As we've discussed, equity research is essential for investors as it provides valuable information and investment recommendations. It involves digging into company finances, creating financial models, and meeting with industry experts. 

Equity research supports investment decisions, evaluates securities, and guides investors and fund managers. For example, it helps predict the future growth potential of tech companies, find investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, and understand how macroeconomic trends affect different sectors and stocks.

Final Thoughts 

Equity research is crucial in empowering investors to make informed investment decisions. Through comprehensive analysis of financial data, market trends, and company performance, equity research provides valuable insights that enable investors to identify attractive opportunities and manage their portfolios effectively. By leveraging the expertise of research analysts and utilizing robust analytical techniques, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the risks and potential returns associated with specific investment opportunities. Ultimately, equity research is a fundamental tool for institutional and retail investors, helping them navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence and clarity.

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Treasury sanctions impede russian access to battlefield supplies and target revenue generators.

WASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is taking action to further implement the commitments that G7 Leaders made on February 24, 2023 and May 19, 2023. The designations announced today by OFAC and the Department of State take measures to inhibit Russia’s access to products that support its military and war efforts; reduce Russia’s revenue from the metals and mining sector; undermine its future energy capabilities; degrade Russia’s access to the international financial system; and starve Russia of G7-produced technology needed for its technology, aerospace, and defense sectors. 

“Today’s actions represent another step in our efforts to constrain Russia’s military capabilities, its access to battlefield supplies, and its economic bottom line,” said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo. “As long as Russia continues to wage its unprovoked and brutal war against Ukraine, we will impose sanctions to deprive Russia of the technology it needs and disrupt the Russian arms industry’s ability to resupply.”

DISRUPTING RUSSIA’S TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIERS, IMPORTERS, AND DEVELOPERS

Sanctions are just one part of the U.S. government’s efforts to stop Russia’s procurement of critical goods and technology. The United States is working with partner governments and the private sector to identify and disrupt evasion networks and the actions taken today complement these shared efforts. While cooperating with partners, Treasury will use all tools available, including sanctions, to prevent Russia from acquiring the sensitive technology it needs to continue its full-scale war against Ukraine.

In a May 19, 2023 Supplemental Alert , Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) identified certain high priority items, primarily based on the Harmonized System (HS) code classification of components from Russian weapons systems recovered on the battlefield in Ukraine, to assist financial institutions in identifying suspicious transactions relating to possible export control evasion. Items described by these HS codes have been found in multiple Russian weapons systems used against Ukraine, including the Kalibr cruise missile, the Kh-101 cruise missile, and the Orlan-10 UAV. Many of the entities designated today have transferred certain of these high priority items to Russia-based end-users.

Russia’s Use of Kyrgyz Republic-based Entities to Acquire Dual-Use Technology

One of the most common tactics Russian entities have used to continue their importation of foreign-made electronics and technology is the use of third-party intermediaries and transshipment points outside of Russia. Entities based in the Kyrgyz Republic have been frequent exporters of controlled electronics components and other technology to Russia since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Some of these shipments have subsequently supplied sensitive dual-use goods to entities in Russia’s defense sector. 

LLC RM Design and Development ( RMDD ), established in March 2022, is a Kyrgyz Republic-based seller of electronic and telecommunication equipment and parts. Since its founding last year, RMDD has been a prolific shipper of dual-use goods to Russia, including to firms that have supplied electronics to Russia-based defense companies.  

RMDD has sent hundreds of shipments of goods, including semiconductor devices, electronic integrated circuits, and capacitors to the following Russia-based companies, among others:

• Basis Trade Prosoft LLC  ( BTP ),   a supplier of industrial computers, components for automated process control systems, and radio-electronic components.
• OOO Radiotekhsnab ( RTS ), an importer of electronic components and wholesaler of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts.
• Region-Prof LLC ( Region-Prof ), a supplier of automation equipment, electronic components, and hardware and software for building electronic equipment. 

RMDD, RTS, and Region-Prof were designated pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024 for operating or having operated in the electronics sector of the Russian Federation economy. BTP was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Limited Liability Company Siaisi  ( CIC ) is a Russia-based company that primarily deals with electronic and optical equipment as well as computers and related equipment. CIC is owned by Russian Federation national Tatyana Grigoryevna Ivanova ( Ivanova ), who also serves as the general director of CIC. Ivanova is also the general director and owner of Kyrgyz Republic-based wholesaler OSOO Progress Lider  ( Progress Lider ), which was established in March 2022 and has made numerous shipments to CIC.

CIC and Ivanova were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the electronics sector of the Russian Federation economy. Progress Lider was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, CIC.

ZAO GTME Tekhnologii ( GTME Tekhnologii ) is a Kyrgyz Republic-based entity established in June 2022. GTME Tekhnologii has made dozens of shipments of goods to Russia, including high priority items included in the FinCEN-BIS Supplemental Alert, such as tantalum capacitors and electronic integrated circuits. GTME Tekhnologii’s primary customer has been Russia-based Technologies Systems and Complexes Limited ( TSC ), a vendor of electronic and digital equipment. 

GTME Tekhnologii and TSC were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy. 

OSOO Kargolayn ( Cargoline ), founded in March 2022, is a Kyrgyz Republic-based entity that has shipped millions of dollars of foreign-made aviation equipment to Russia, including directly to airlines that are subject to U.S. export controls.  

Cargoline was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the aerospace sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Targeting Additional Sanctions Evasion Facilitators

Amegino FZE ( Amegino ) is a UAE-based engineering and services company that provides electronic components and related industry services. Amegino has sent dozens of shipments of electronics, including integrated circuits, to Russia since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

Amegino was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology and electronics sectors of the Russian Federation economy. 

Limited Liability Company AK Microtech  ( AKM )is a Russia-based firm that specializes in transferring foreign semiconductor technology to Russian microelectronics production companies, including entities that provide microelectronics to the Russian defense industry. A number of those end-users are on Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List as well as the Department of Commerce’s Entity List. 

AKM uses non-Russian intermediaries to obfuscate Russian recipients. One such intermediary is Serbia-based firm MCI Trading DOO Beograd Palilula  ( MCI ), which has helped AKM acquire high-tech items from producers in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. MCI has also made dozens of shipments to AKM since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Serbia national Ivan Cvetic  ( Cvetic ) is the director of MCI.

AKM was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the electronics sector of the Russian Federation economy. MCI and Cvetic were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, AKM.

Designations Targeting Russia-Based Importers of Dual-Use Items

OFAC continues to target Russia-based entities that import dual-use technology from abroad. The following Russia-based entities were designated today pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the electronics sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• AK Systems , a developer, manufacturer, and distributor of high-tech electronic devices;
• LLC Altrabeta , a developer and producer of electronic equipment;
• Joint Stock Company Compel , a supplier of components for electronics manufacturing;
• Limited Liability Company Forepost Trading , an electronic components supplier and producer of electronic equipment;
• LLC IQ Components , an electronic components supplier; 
• Komponenta AO , an electronic components supplier and electronics manufacturing service provider;
• LLC Onelek , an electronic components supplier; 
• NPF-Radiotekhkomplekt AO , an electronic components supplier to research institutes and design bureaus;
• Saturn EK OOO , an electronic components supplier and producer of electronic equipment;
• LLC Spetselservis , an electronic components supplier,; and
• Staut Company Limited , a developer of electronic engineering devices, including for robotic systems.

TARGETING RUSSIA’S MUNITIONS FACTORIES AND HIGH-TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES THAT SUPPORT RUSSIA’S DEFENSE SECTOR

OFAC continues to target entities that directly support Russia’s war against Ukraine. The following Russia-based entities were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• Aleksinskii Khimicheskii Kombinat ( Aleksinsky Chemical ) produces ammunition and weapons. Aleksinsky Chemical also produces polymers, paints, and composite materials for Russia’s military-industrial complex. Aleksinsky Chemical was also designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the manufacturing sector of the Russian Federation economy.
• Kazanskii Gosudarstvennyi Kazennyi Porokhovoi Zavod produces explosives, weapons, ammunition, small arms, and other defense items for the Government of the Russian Federation. 
• Tambovskii Porokhovoi Zavod ( Tambov Gunpowder ) is one of Russia’s main producers of ammunition for artillery and small arms. Tambov Gunpowder also produces and sells explosives, including armor-piercing projectiles, to the Russian military. 
• Joint Stock Company Tula Cartridge Works  manufactures small arms ammunition for Russia’s military.

In March 2022, OFAC designated Joint Stock Company Kronshtadt (Kronshtadt) pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy. Kronshtadt is a Russian defense contractor that develops and manufactures equipment, software, and integrated solutions for Russia’s unmanned aviation and defense industries and supports Russia’s Ministry of Defense. Today, OFAC is targeting two Russia-based entities that are working with Kronshtadt.

AO NPO Kurganpribor  ( Kurganpribor ) produces components for rocket systems, missiles, and bombs. Kurganpribor is likely working with Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufacturers to develop engines for UAV weapons programs.

Joint Stock Company Astrophysika National Centre of Laser Systems and Complexes  ( Astrofizika ) is a research and development center focused on laser and optical technologies, including for defense purposes. Astrofizika is working with Kronshtadt to develop a line of engines for UAVs.

Kurganpribor was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy. Astrofizika was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy.

OFAC is also targeting entities in key industries such as aerospace, quantum technologies, and advanced computing that Russia exploits to support its defense industries. To deprive Russia of technology for its aerospace sector, the following Russia-based companies were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the aerospace sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• Arsenal Machine Building Plant Open Joint Stock Company   ( MZ Arsenal ) manufactures military equipment and technology, as well as space technology. Specifically, MZ Arsenal develops and produces materiel for Russia’s navy, solid-fuel rocket engines, and ballistic missiles.
• Joint Stock Company Experimental Design Bureau Fakel  produces products for aerospace purposes. 
• M.V. Frunze Arsenal Design Bureau Joint Stock Company  is a military contractor that specializes in the development of space remote sensing systems.
• Joint Stock Company Research and Production Corporation Precision Systems and Instruments  ( NPK SPP ) manufactures electronics for space complexes. NPK SPP won a contract from Russia’s Ministry of Defense to support a space surveillance system.
• Open Joint Stock Company Russian Institute of Radionavigation and Time  develops aerospace systems, including for defense purposes.  
• Joint Stock Company Science Research Institute for Precise Instruments  ( RIPI ) designs and manufactures radio engineering equipment and software-hardware complexes for the Russian aerospace industry. Additionally, RIPI has showcased space-related products and radar at a Russian military forum.  
• Space Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences  designs and tests equipment and systems for space research under the control of Russia’s Ministry of Defense. 
• Joint Stock Company Special Research Bureau of Moscow Power Engineering Institute  produces aerospace industry products for missiles and aircraft.

Scientific Production Company Optolink  ( Optolink ) is a Russia-based producer of technological and electronic products, including optical fibers, high precision fiber optic gyroscopes, diodes, and transistors, used in aerospace systems. On December 8, 2022, Optolink was added to the Department of Commerce’s Entity List based on information that Optolink contributes to Russia’s military and/or defense industrial base. 

Optolink was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology and electronics sectors of the Russian Federation economy. 

OFAC is also targeting research institutes and other entities that support Russia’s research and development of high-technology goods. The following entities were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• The Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences is one of Russia’s leading physics research centers and focuses on the development of new technologies. 
• P.L. Kapitza Institute for Physical Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences is a Russia-based research institution primarily researching quantum fluids and superconductivity.
• The Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Federal Research Center Kazan Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences  ( FRC KAZSC RAS ) is a Russian Federal Research Center responsible for achieving results in the implementation of technological priorities in Russia, particularly in areas of strategic importance. FRC KAZSC RAS conducts research related to nanotechnologies and quantum informatics and is a leading center in the field of radio spectroscopy. 
• The Osipyan Institute of Solid State Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( ISSP ) is a Russia-based quantum research institute and it is involved in solving problems with high-tech applications. On September 30, 2022, the Department of Commerce added ISSP to the Entity List for acquiring and attempting to acquire U.S.-origin items in support of the Russian military.
• A.M. Prokhorov General Physics Institute Russian Academy of Sciences is a Russia-based institute that focuses research on laser physics and optics, quantum electronics, microelectronics, and nanoelectronics.
• Closed Joint Stock Company Superconducting Nanotechnology is a Russia-based company that specializes in the development, fabrication, and implementation of superconducting devices and which produces products which have applications for quantum computing.

The Institute of Laser Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences  ( Institute of Laser Physics ) is a federally financed institution owned by the Government of the Russian Federation. The Institute of Laser Physics is involved in the application of high-power lasers for scientific research and technology.

The Institute of Laser Physics   was designated   pursuant to E.O. 14024 for being owned or controlled by, or for having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the Government of the Russian Federation.

DEGRADING RUSSIA’S ACCESS TO THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM 

Imposing sanctions against additional Russia-based financial institutions further degrades the Russian Federation’s ability to maintain access to the global financial system. The following five Russian banks were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the financial services sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• Joint Stock Company Locko Bank , a commercial bank located in Moscow, Russia.
• Joint Stock Company Petersburg Social Commercial Bank , a commercial bank located in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, Russia. 
• Joint Stock Company Commercial Bank Solidarnost , a commercial bank located in Moscow, Russia and among the leading credit institutions in Russia’s Volga region. 
• JSC Tinkoff Bank ( Tinkoff Bank ), a commercial bank in Moscow, Russia. Tinkoff Bank is partially owned by U.S.-designated Vladimir Olegovich Potanin. Tinkoff Bank was sanctioned by the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) in February and May of 2023, respectively.  
• Unistream Commercial Bank JSC , a money-transfer institution located in Moscow, Russia. 

FURTHER LIMITING RUSSIA’S REVENUE FROM EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES AND FUTURE CAPABILITIES

Today, OFAC is taking further action to limit Russia’s revenue from its metals industries and to limit Russia’s future energy capabilities in support of the G7 commitments. 

Reducing Russia’s Revenue from the Metals and Mining Sector

Joint Stock Company Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company ( UMMC ) is one of Russia’s top producers of metals such as copper, zinc, gold, and silver. 

UMMC Nonferrous Metals Processing Limited Liability Company ( UMMC NFMP ) is a Russia-based UMMC subsidiary involved in the non-ferrous metals processing industry that operates plants that manufacture copper, brass, bronze, copper-nickel, and nickel rolled products. 

Joint Stock Company Uralelektromed ( Uralelektromed ) is a Russia-based UMMC subsidiary involved in the refining of precious metals, cathodes, and bullion products. 

UMMC, UMMC NFMP, and Uralelektromed were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the metals and mining sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Targeting Russia’s Manufacturers of Equipment and Chemicals for the Energy Industry

The following Russia-based manufacturers of energy industry equipment were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the manufacturing sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• Joint Stock Company Scientific Production Enterprise Research and Design Institute of Well Logging  designs special methods and technologies for geophysical surveys involving oil, gas, ore, and coal wells and is involved in manufacturing equipment for well logging.  
• Limited Liability Company Proizvostvennaya Kommercheskaya Firma Gazneftemash manufactures equipment for the drilling of new oil and gas wells.
• Joint Stock Company Gazprom Avtomatizatsiya manufactures gas distribution stations for Public Joint Stock Company Gazprom, an entity that is subject to Directive 4 Under E.O. 13662 and Directive 3 Under E.O. 14024. 
• Joint Stock Company Neftegazavtomatika manufactures automation equipment for the oil and gas industries.
• Limited Liability Company Oktanta manufactures drill piping inspection equipment.
• Limited Liability Company Perm Oil Machine Company manufactures oilfield and drilling equipment. 
• Limited Liability Company Rustmash manufactures oil drilling equipment.

The following Russia-based manufacturers of energy-related refining agents were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the manufacturing sector of the Russian Federation economy:

• Limited Liability Company Ishimbay Specialized Chemical Plant of Catalyst manufactures chemicals.
• Limited Liability Company KNT KAT manufactures catalysts for the oil and gas industries.  
• Limited Liability Company RN KAT  ( RN KAT ) is a subsidiary of Open Joint-Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft), an entity that is subject to Directive and Directive 4 of E.O. 13662. RN KAT manufactures refining agents for Rosneft’s refineries.
• Limited Liability Company Sterlitamak Catalyst Plant manufactures chemicals.

Limited Liability Company Tyumen Petroleum Research Center ( TPRC ) is Rosneft’s corporate research and design institute. TPRC, which is involved in technology development, performs field engineering and support for geological survey processes and is involved in the development of oil and gas fields in Russia and elsewhere for Rosneft subsidiaries.

TPRC was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Targeting a Facilitator of Investment in Russia’s Extractive Industries

The Fund for Development of Energy Complex Energy ( Fund Energy ) is a Russia-based investment house that invests in energy, oil and gas, and mining enterprises and infrastructure facilities.

Fund Energy was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the financial services sector of the Russian Federation economy.

SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the persons above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. All transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or blocked persons are prohibited unless exempt or authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC. These prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person and the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person. 

For identifying information on the individuals and entities sanctioned or property identified today, click here.  

Fintechs: A new paradigm of growth

Over the past decade, technological progress and innovation have catapulted the fintech sector from the fringes to the forefront of financial services. And the growth has been fast and furious, buoyed by the robust growth of the banking sector, rapid digitization, changing customer preferences, and increasing support of investors and regulators. During this decade, fintechs have profoundly reshaped certain areas of financial services with their innovative, differentiated, and customer-centric value propositions, collaborative business models, and cross-skilled and agile teams.

As of July 2023, publicly traded fintechs represented a market capitalization of $550 billion, a two-times increase versus 2019. 1 F-Prime Fintech Index. In addition, as of the same period, there were more than 272 fintech unicorns, with a combined valuation of $936 billion, a sevenfold increase from 39 firms valued at $1 billion or more five years ago. 2 Dealroom.co; McKinsey analysis.

In 2022, a market correction triggered a slowdown in this explosive growth momentum. The impact continues to be felt today. Funding and deal activity have declined across the board, and there are fewer IPOs and SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) listings, as well as a decline in new unicorn creation. The macro environment also remains challenging and uncertain. In such a scenario, fintechs are entering a new era of value creation. The last era was all about firms being experimental—taking risks and pursuing growth at all costs. In the new era, a challenged funding environment means fintechs can no longer afford to sprint. To remain competitive, they must run at a slower and steadier pace.

About the authors

This report is a collaborative effort by Lindsay Anan, Diego Castellanos Isaza, Fernando Figueiredo, Max Flötotto , André Jerenz, Alexis Krivkovich , Marie-Claude Nadeau , Tunde Olanrewaju , Zaccaria Orlando, and Alessia Vassallo, representing views from McKinsey’s Financial Services Practice.

In this report, we examine how fintechs can continue to grow in strength and relevance for customers, the overall financial ecosystem, and the world economy, even in disruptive times. Based on research and interviews with more than 100 founders, fintech and banking executives, investors, and senior ecosystem stakeholders, we have identified key themes shaping the future of fintechs. To help fintechs capitalize on these themes, we also provide a framework for sustainable growth, based on an analysis of the strategies used by long-established public companies that have weathered previous economic cycles.

Fintech growth then and now

The fintech industry raised record capital in the second half of the last decade. Venture capital (VC) funding grew from $19.4 billion in 2015 to $33.3 billion in 2020, a 17 percent year-over-year increase (see sidebar “What are fintechs?”). Deal activity increased in tandem, with the number of deals growing 1.2 times over this period.

What are fintechs?

We define fintech players as start-ups and growth companies that rely primarily on technology to conduct fundamental functions provided by financial services, thereby affecting how users store, save, borrow, invest, move, pay, and protect money. For the analysis of this report, we included the following fintech sectors: daily banking; lending; wealth management; payments; investment banking and capital markets; small and medium-size enterprise (SME) and corporate services; operations; and infrastructure (including embedded finance, and banking as a service). The analysis excluded cryptocurrency, decentralized finance, and insurtech.

The industry fared even better in 2021, thriving on the backs of the pandemic-triggered acceleration in digitization and a financial system awash with liquidity. Funding increased by 177 percent year over year to $92.3 billion, and the number of deals grew by 19 percent.

The funding surge proved to be a one-off event. Funding levels in 2022 returned to long-term trend levels as inflated growth expectations from the 2021 extraordinary results were reanchored to business-as-usual levels, and as deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical shocks destabilized the business environment. The correction caused fintech valuations to plummet. Many private firms faced down rounds, and publicly traded fintechs lost billions of dollars in market capitalization. VC funding was hit hard globally and across sectors, dropping to $459.6 billion in 2022 from $683.1 billion in 2021. Fintech funding faced a 40 percent year-over-year funding decline, down from $92 billion to $55 billion. Yet, when analyzed over a five-year period, fintech funding as a proportion of total VC funding remained fairly stable at 12 percent, registering only a 0.5 percentage point decline in 2022.

Looking ahead, the fintech industry continues to face a challenging future, but there are several opportunities yet to be unlocked. Investors are adapting to a new financial paradigm with higher interest rates and inflation, which has altered their assessment of risk and reward. At the same time, the once-in-a-generation technology revolution under way is generating more value creation opportunities. Our research shows that revenues in the fintech industry are expected to grow almost three times faster than those in the traditional banking sector between 2022 and 2028. Compared with the 6 percent annual revenue growth for traditional banking, fintechs could post annual revenue growth of 15 percent over the next five years.

McKinsey’s research shows that revenues in the fintech industry are expected to grow almost three times faster than those in the traditional banking sector between 2023 and 2028.

These trends are also coinciding with—and in many ways catalyzing—the maturation of the fintech industry. Based on our research and interviews, three themes will shape the next chapter of fintech growth. First, fintechs will continue to benefit from the radical transformation of the banking industry, rapid digital adoption, and e-commerce growth around the world, particularly in developing economies. Second, despite short-term pressures, fintechs still have room to achieve further growth in an expanding financial-services ecosystem. And finally, not all fintechs are being hit equally hard during the market correction: fintechs in certain verticals and at particular stages of growth are more resilient than their peers.

Radical transformation of the banking industry

Banking is facing a future marked by fundamental restructuring. As our colleagues wrote recently, banks and nonbanks are competing to fulfill distinct customer needs in five cross-industry arenas in this new era: everyday banking, investment advisory, complex financing, mass wholesale intermediation, and banking as a service (BaaS). 3 Balázs Czímer, Miklós Dietz, Valéria László, and Joydeep Sengupta, “ The future of banks: A $20 trillion breakup opportunity ,” McKinsey Quarterly , December 20, 2022.

At the same time, macro tailwinds are powering the growth of fintechs and the broader financial-services ecosystem. Digital adoption is no longer a question but a reality: around 73 percent of the world’s interactions with banks now take place through digital channels.

Moreover, retail consumers globally now have the same level of satisfaction and trust in fintechs as they have with incumbent banks. 4 McKinsey Retail Banking Consumer Survey, 2021. In fact, 41 percent of retail consumers surveyed by McKinsey in 2021 said they planned to increase their fintech product exposure. The demand—and need—for fintech products is higher across developing economies. In 2022, for example, Africa had almost 800 million mobile accounts, almost half of the whole world’s total. 5 The state of the industry report on mobile money , GSM Association, April 2023.

B2B firms’ demand for fintech solutions also is growing. In 2022, 35 percent of the small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in the United States considered using fintechs for lending, better pricing, and integration with their existing platforms. And in Asia, 20 percent of SMEs leveraged fintechs for payments and lending. 6 McKinsey 2022 US SMB Banking Survey, 2022 (n = 955).

To capitalize on this demand, fintechs will need to keep up with fast-evolving regulations and ensure they have adequate resources and capacity to comply. Some European Union member states, such as Ireland, are bringing buy-now-pay-later providers under the scope of financial regulation. 7 Miroslav Đurić and Verena Ritter-Döring, “Regulation of buy-now-pay-later in the EU: New regime on the horizon,” Law Business Research, February 8, 2023. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau aims to issue a proposed rule around open banking this year that would require financial institutions to share consumer data upon consumers’ requests. 8 Farouk Ferchichi, “The US is one step closer to making open banking a reality,” Finextra, January 19, 2023. This would make it necessary for fintechs to ensure they have the available resources and capacity to respond to these requests.

A nascent industry in an expanding ecosystem

The banking industry generated more than $6.5 trillion in revenues in 2022, with year-over-year growth in volume and revenue margins. 9 “ McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review ,” McKinsey, December 1, 2022. Given the fintech market dynamics, this suggests there is still plenty of room for further growth in both public and private markets.

In 2022, fintechs accounted for 5 percent (or $150 billion to $205 billion) of the global banking sector’s net revenue, 10 Net revenue equals revenue after risk minus direct costs. according to our analysis. We estimate this share could increase to more than $400 billion by 2028, 11 Estimate based on historical growth at regional level and expert inputs from regional leaders in the banking industry (for example, forecast of roughly 80 percent 2021–22 revenue increase in Latin America). representing a 15 percent annual growth rate of fintech revenue between 2022 and 2028, three times the overall banking industry’s growth rate of roughly 6 percent (Exhibit 1).

Emerging markets will fuel much of this revenue growth. Fintech revenues in Africa, Asia–Pacific (excluding China), Latin America, and the Middle East represented 15 percent of fintech’s global revenues last year. We estimate that they will increase to 29 percent in aggregate by 2028. On the other hand, North America, currently accounting for 48 percent of worldwide fintech revenues, is expected to decrease its share to 41 percent by 2028.

While fintech penetration in emerging markets is already the highest in the world, its growth potential is underscored by a few trends. Many of these economies lack access to traditional banking services and have a high share of underbanked population. Fintechs have had some success in addressing these unmet needs. In Brazil, for example, 46 percent of the adult population is said to be using Nubank, a fintech bank in Latin America—double the share two years ago. 12 Oliver Smith, “Nubank turns $141m profit in Q1 as Brazilian market share nears 50%,” AltFi, May 16, 2023.

Moreover, while the market cap of private fintech companies has increased substantially over the past decade, the sector’s penetration of the public market remains small. 13 Michael Gilroy, Chase Packard, and Leslie Wang, Fintech and the pursuit of the prize: Who stands to win over the next decade? , Coatue, October 24, 2022. In the eight years leading up to October 2022, 44 modern fintechs (those that were founded in 1999 or later and went public after 2014) did an IPO, creating a combined market cap of $0.3 trillion. In contrast, during the same period, there were more than 2,500 legacy public financial-services companies (whose average year of founding was 1926) with a combined market cap of $11.1 trillion. 14 Michael Gilroy, Chase Packard, and Leslie Wang, Fintech and the pursuit of the prize: Who stands to win over the next decade? , Coatue, October 24, 2022.

Not all fintech businesses are created (or funded) equal

Last year was turbulent for fintechs, but there were differences in the fundraising performance of firms based on maturity and segments.

Maturity stage

Companies in the growth stage (series C and beyond) showed the highest sensitivity to last year’s funding downturn, with a sharp year-over-year funding decline of 50 percent. Meanwhile, fintechs in the early seed and pre-seed stages were more resilient and increased funding by 26 percent year over year (Exhibit 2). This funding outperformance of firms in the early and pre-seed stages was a consequence of the longer time to maturity, which gives start-ups more time to get through periods of economic uncertainty and recover any losses before an eventual sale.

Funding for B2B fintech segments last year was more resilient than for those in B2C, with smaller funding declines (Exhibit 3). The two B2B verticals that were least affected were (1) BaaS and embedded finance and (2) SME and corporate value-added services. These two verticals recorded year-over-year funding declines of 24 and 26 percent, respectively. In contrast, funding for payments-focused fintechs dropped 50 percent. Even then, payments and lending received the largest shares of total fintech funding.

Funding for B2B segments grew at more than 25 percent annually between 2018 and 2022, driven by an increasing number of businesses adopting off-the-shelf solutions provided by digital-native firms (including payments, open banking, and core banking technology) to address challenges arising from using legacy banking infrastructure—for example, limited flexibility, slower speed, and high costs.

Many businesses continue to rely on legacy banking infrastructure that limits flexibility and speed and can often be more costly. To address these challenges, businesses are benefiting from using off-the-shelf solutions provided by digital natives for services such as payments, open banking, and core banking technology.

For BaaS and embedded finance, demand is led by customer-facing businesses looking to control their users’ end-to-end experience. Meanwhile, SMEs have been underserved by traditional financial-services providers, despite the fact they represent about 90 percent of businesses and more than 50 percent of employment worldwide. 15 “Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) finance,” The World Bank, accessed October 10, 2023. And in developing countries, the finance gap for micro, small, and medium-size enterprises (MSME) is estimated to be approximately $5 trillion, or 1.3 times the current level of MSME lending. 16 “MSME finance gap,” IFC, accessed October 10, 2023. Fintech firms have successfully addressed some of SMEs’ needs worldwide, especially in developing countries.

The path to sustainable growth

The current churn in the markets makes it prudent for fintechs to define their next move carefully. After all, they are operating in a much different environment than in years past. In their hypergrowth stage, fintechs had access to capital that allowed them to be bold in their business strategy. They could make revenue generation their foremost objective; profits were expected to follow.

The narrative has shifted since last year. The time between funding rounds for fintechs increased by more than five months from the first to the fourth quarter of 2022. The average value of funding rounds decreased by 50 percent over the same period. 17 “SVB’s challenges will accelerate valuation down rounds, startup mortality, and layoffs,” CB Information Services, March 15, 2023. These changes are forcing fintechs to find newer ways to extend runways and adjust their operating models to make decreasing amounts of cash last longer.

The days of growth at any cost are behind the industry, for now at least. In a liquidity-constrained environment, fintechs and their investors are emphasizing profitability, not just growth in customer adoption numbers or total revenues. “In the past, the reward went to fintechs that showed growth at all costs, which led to healthy valuations,” said one Africa-based growth equity investor. “Now it is about the sustainability of the business, the addressable market, and profitability.”

In a liquidity-constrained environment, fintechs and their investors are emphasizing profitability, not just growth in customer adoption numbers or total revenues.

So how can fintechs get on a path of sustainable, profitable growth?

In 2019, McKinsey conducted an in-depth study of the growth patterns and performance of the world’s 5,000 largest public companies over the preceding 15 years. The researchers’ analysis identified ten rules for value-creating growth. 18 Chris Bradley, Rebecca Doherty, Nicholas Northcote, and Tido Röder, “ The ten rules of growth ,” McKinsey, August 12, 2022. According to the research, companies that set growth strategies addressing all available pathways to growth were 97 percent more likely to achieve above-peer profitable growth. 19 “ Choosing to grow: The leader’s blueprint ,” McKinsey, July 7, 2022.

This set of rules adopted by public companies that have lived through economic cycles and periods of uncertainty can also be useful for fintechs as they transition to a sustainable growth model. Based on our analysis of these rules and interviews with more than 40 fintech industry leaders, we expect four pathways to deliver the most impact for fintechs.

Cost discipline

When fintechs had access to abundant cash and funding was easy, they placed more emphasis on growing rapidly than on managing costs. Targeted cost savings have become a bigger priority today, as fintechs seek ways to lower expenses and achieve profitability while maintaining customer satisfaction and pursuing customer growth and acquisition. Our research has found that 50 percent of public fintechs (following their IPO) were profitable in 2022. And the key differentiator between profitable and nonprofitable fintechs was cost management, not revenue growth (Exhibit 4). While both categories recorded year-over-year revenue growth of 13 percent, profitable fintechs posted a median 3 percent decrease in costs. Nonprofitable fintechs, in contrast, saw costs rise by 27 percent, which affected their profit margins.

Successful implementation of cost management efforts is the key for fintechs in their next phase of evolution. Several leaders are already making moves: 60 percent of our survey respondents said their firms are significantly managing costs. An executive at an African mobile payments firm said they are now negotiating every cost and making sure the firm is thinking for the long run.

Consider the example of the Indian fintech company Paytm, which specializes in digital payments and financial services. The firm had had a target of achieving breakeven by September 2023 but was able to achieve this six months ahead of schedule. It did so through disciplined cost management, revenue growth across businesses, and a business model with strong operating leverage. 20 “Our discipline in cost management sustains and grows profitability,” Paytm, February 20, 2023.

While fintechs establish a clear focus on costs, they should also consider adjusting how they operate, thereby creating a more agile and flexible organization that can deal with the current environment. Around 80 percent of the interviewed fintechs report that they are currently making changes to their operating models. Of these, 66 percent cite a focus on profitability and a sustainable cost structure as being among their top three reasons. Such adjustments to the operating model are most sustainable when institutions also reinforce the control functions to protect customers and stay on top of regulatory changes.

A shift from hypergrowth to sustainable growth would also result in a greater focus on strong unit economics. To do this, fintechs ensure that the profitability view is embedded across the business. For example, assessment of the value of adding new customers would evolve from efficiency-only metrics such as the customer acquisition cost (CAC) to a more holistic approach. In this example, one way to embed profitability into acquisition investment and decision making is to compare the CAC with the projected lifetime value (LTV) of a customer, using the LTV/CAC ratio to assess the marginal return on investment for acquiring every new customer. In Latin America, for example, 68 percent of fintechs self-reported an LTV/CAC greater than five, which indicates a potential for fintechs to increase spending and further fuel growth without sacrificing profitability.

Measured growth

As leaders develop growth strategies, an important question is where growth should come from. Fintechs can grow sustainably by taking three steps: building a strong core, expanding into adjacent industries and geographies, and shrinking to grow. Identifying which steps will be most accretive to growth will depend on the unique circumstances of each fintech; some might find value in pursuing all three steps, while others could choose to focus on one. Regardless of the circumstances, this decision will have greater longer-term consequences in the current environment, compared with the earlier high-funding phase.

Focus on building a strong core as a precursor for expansion

The first step in cracking the growth code involves focusing on the local market and developing a healthy core business. According to our research, companies that focus on their core business and have a strong home market are 1.6 times more likely to generate peer-beating returns. 21 Chris Bradley, Rebecca Doherty, Tido Röder, and Jill Zucker, “ Growth rules: Which matter most? ,” McKinsey, March 6, 2023.

For fintechs, the key will be to relentlessly focus on growth in their core business. As a North American fintech executive told us: “It’s a bit of back to basics. On a core product or offering, 18 to 24 months ago, you would have built additional pieces on it to upsell and cross-sell. Now, we’re looking to double down on the core business and make sure it’s a stable, viable operation.”

To do this, fintechs must tailor their value propositions to their focus markets. Let’s take the example of B2C fintechs. Our recent research (McKinsey’s Retail Banking Consumer Survey and Global Banking Pools ) quantified the potential drivers for growth at B2C fintechs. Cross-selling will likely drive growth for fintechs in emerging economies, while those in developed countries will likely see greater growth from capturing new customers. Around 72 percent of revenue growth for companies in Brazil, for example, is expected to come from cross-selling, in contrast with 25 percent and 30 percent for the United Kingdom and the United States, respectively, with the remaining growth coming from new customers (Exhibit 5). There is arguably less potential for new-customer development in developing economies, given their high fintech penetration.

Across the competitive landscape, as markets are highly heterogenous, a dedicated strategy for each region is recommended. For example, our analysis found that in the United Kingdom and the United States, fintech revenue share is split almost equally between incumbent digital banks and pure fintech players. In contrast, digital incumbents in Germany and pure fintech players in Brazil could dominate banking’s revenue share in their respective markets.

Expand into adjacent segments and geographies

After building a strong core, fintechs can consider expanding into other segments and geographies as a second source of growth. According to our previously published research, companies that do so are 1.2 to 1.3 times more likely to generate sizable returns than peers that focus solely on their core. 22 Chris Bradley, Rebecca Doherty, Tido Röder, and Jill Zucker, “ Growth rules: Which matter most? ,” McKinsey, March 6, 2023.

Today, however, expansion is no longer a must-do strategy. It may be most advantageous for companies that have strong footholds in their core markets and can use some competitive or ownership advantage to expand elsewhere. The key is to pursue measured, value-creating growth. A case in point is OPay, which started as a mobile money platform in Nigeria and has since expanded across financial-services verticals. OPay now offers peer-to-peer payments and merchant and card services.

Shrink to grow

Fintechs are moving from hypergrowth to sustainable growth, but that growth may not necessarily be consistent across all parts of the business. If fintechs divest from underperforming parts of their portfolios and scale back from regions recording limited growth, they can reinvest that capital into high-performing segments—a strategy we call “shrinking to grow.” In our research, companies that use this approach are 1.4 times more likely to outperform their peers.

“In the past, many fintechs expanded geographically, even if it didn’t make much sense,” an executive at a Latin American fintech told us. “Now they will have to focus on their profitable segment and geography and stop expanding where they are not.”

Some fintechs have been deliberate about using a shrink-to-grow strategy, changing track if an expansion strategy did not materialize as expected or the local market had more potential for growth. German robo-adviser Scalable Capital, for example, announced plans to discontinue its Swiss operations as of 2020 to focus on other markets because the implementation of the Financial Services Act in Switzerland would have required the company to manage two regulatory frameworks simultaneously. Meanwhile, Wealthsimple, a Canadian online investment platform, exited from the United Kingdom and the United States in 2021 to concentrate on its local retail market and expand its product portfolio into new financial-services areas. Similarly, in late 2020, San Francisco–based fintech LendingClub shut down its retail peer-to-peer platform called Notes to focus on other products.

Programmatic M&A

Many companies will conclude they can achieve the steps outlined in this report—launching new features, building new capabilities, and pivoting toward new revenue streams and segments—more swiftly through thoughtful acquisitions and partnerships than by relying on pure organic development. Fintech firm Block, for example, completed its acquisition of the buy-now-pay-later platform Afterpay in January 2022 to accelerate its strategic priorities for its seller and cash app ecosystems. 23 “Block, Inc. completes acquisition of Afterpay,” Block, January 31, 2022. Nearly 60 percent of fintech executives in our survey told us they are considering an acquisition in the next 18 months.

Moreover, with IPO and SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) activity slowing considerably since last year, many fintechs that might otherwise go public are turning to private markets for funding. Take the example of the British fintech Zopa, which intended to list by 2022 but eventually decided to put IPO plans on hold in response to challenging market conditions. In the interim, the firm has been raising capital from its shareholders, including $92 million in February. 24 “Zopa raises £75 million,” Zopa Bank Limited, February 1, 2023.

M&A transactions increase significantly during periods of economic uncertainty, when they also tend to deliver higher returns. During the global financial crisis, around 45 percent of banking M&A deals showed positive excess two-year total shareholder returns (TSR) between 2007 and 2009. 25 As of the year of the deal’s announcement. In comparison, less than 30 percent of banking deals posted positive excess two-year TSR between 2010 and 2020. 26 McKinsey Fintech Quarterly Radar, Q1 2023. Across industries, companies actively making acquisitions worth 10 percent or more of their market cap in total had an average TSR of 6.4 percent between January 2007 and January 2008, compared with −3.4 percent for the less active companies. 27 Brian Salsberg, “The case for M&A in a downturn,” Harvard Business Review , May 2020.

However, not all M&As are successful. Many fail to create value due to contrasting values and cultures, mismatched product–market fit, and inflated revenue forecasts in the pursuit of customer engagement and growth at all costs.

Keeping the culture alive

What has made fintechs so disruptive over the years? The answer lies largely in their ability to innovate and differentiate. Since fintechs are not as encumbered by legacy systems and processes, they can be more agile in using emerging technologies to anticipate and solve customer needs. Typically, they also have a customer-centric and collaborative approach to deliver innovation with cross-skilled teams.

Innovations have happened across fintech verticals. Neobanks like Chime and Monzo, designed around a simple and intuitive user experience, have changed assumptions about the role of branches in traditional retail banking. In the United Kingdom, for example, the total number of bank and building society branches fell by 40 percent between 2012 and 2022. 28 Lorna Booth, Statistics on access to cash, bank branches and ATMs , House of Commons, September 1, 2023. Robo-advisers such as Wealthfront and Nutmeg disrupted the traditional wealth management industry by offering low-cost, accessible alternatives to individuals lacking access to personalized financial advice. Funding Circle introduced the peer-to-peer lending concept to the financial sector, bypassing traditional banks (which had owned this relationship) and enabling direct lending between parties.

Incumbents are fast catching up with these innovations by ramping up investments in new technologies. Around 94 percent of banks in a recent survey said they plan to invest more in modern payments technology to support end user demand for better payment capabilities over the next two to three years. Of these, 65 percent said they intend to make significant or moderate levels of investment. 29 “94% of banks eyeing investment in modern payment tech, to keep pace with fintech innovation,” Finastra press release, March 8, 2023. Many incumbents are also partnering with BaaS platforms to overhaul their digital capabilities. Examples include Fifth Third Bank’s acquisition of Rize Money in May 2023 and NatWest Group’s partnership with Vodeno Group in October 2022 to create a BaaS business in the United Kingdom.

Generative AI and the future of banking

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are increasingly integral to the world we live in, and investors are taking notice. Generative AI is among the advanced technologies for which investments are accelerating, thanks to its potential to transform business. According to McKinsey research published in June 2023, generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually  across as many as 63 use cases.

Generative AI’s impact on the banking industry will be significant, delivering benefits beyond existing applications of AI in areas such as marketing. As our colleagues have written, this technology could generate an additional $200 billion to $340 billion annually in value, arising from around 2.8 to 4.7 percent increase in the productivity of banking’s annual revenues—if the use cases are fully implemented. 1 “ The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier ,” McKinsey, June 14, 2023. For fintech, we expect a commensurate impact, if not more, given the already high exposure to tech.

Generative AI’s impact—and resulting reinvention—will span three broad categories:

• Automation. Half of today’s work activities could be automated between 2030 and 2060, according to McKinsey estimates. 2 “ The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier ,” McKinsey, June 14, 2023. Fintech firm Intuit, for example, has introduced a generative AI operating system on its platform. Its custom-trained large language financial models specialize in solving tax, accounting, cash flow, and personal finance challenges, among others. 3 “Intuit introduces generative AI operating system with custom trained financial large language models,” Intuit press release, June 6, 2023.
• Augmenting and enhancing productivity to do work more effectively. Generative AI could enable labor productivity growth of 0.1 to 0.6 percent annually through 2040, depending on the rate of technology adoption and redeployment of workers’ time to other activities. Morgan Stanley is building an AI assistant using GPT-4 to help the organization’s wealth managers quickly find and synthesize answers from a massive internal knowledge base. 4 “Morgan Stanley Wealth Management announces key milestone in innovation journey with OpenAI,” Morgan Stanley press release, March 14, 2023.
• Acceleration. Organizations can use generative AI to extract and index knowledge to shorten innovation cycles, thereby enabling continuous innovation.

To capture these opportunities, fintechs need an ecosystem of capabilities and partners that will allow them to move fast. First movers will accrue competitive advantage as they build their capabilities and mobilize with a focus on value, rather than rushing to deliver pilots. To do this, fintechs should consider investing more in people and change management, given generative AI’s unique potential to influence the future of work. Fintechs could think about developing a medium- to longer-term talent strategy and find ways to emphasize change management and adoption. Fintechs that delay building their capabilities risk becoming the disrupted instead of the disruptors.

To retain their competitive advantage, fintechs must continue to innovate. The next big disruptor is always around the corner. Technologies like generative AI are predicted  to revolutionize the competitive landscape of finance over the next decade (see sidebar “Generative AI and the future of banking”). WeBank’s CFO Arthur Wang is one executive who appreciates the urgency. He told us, “Even though our bank has been around for almost eight years, we consider ourselves a start-up. We’re always exploring better fintech technology. WeBank’s strategy is to provide better, more inclusive financial services—to the mass population as well as small and medium-size enterprises—with leading technology. We do business 100 percent online, so we rely on technology.” 30 See “ Making financial services available to the masses through AI ,” McKinsey, August 9, 2022.

A tight labor market has also made it more challenging for fintechs to attract and hire tech talent. Our survey uncovered a shift in the perception of fintechs as riskier employers. As a Europe-based fintech executive told us: “Fintechs are less attractive now because it is clearer that it is a ‘high risk’ job compared with established institutions. On the other hand, large fintechs are laying off, which can create a new pool of talents to attract.”

In such an environment, fintechs must work toward strengthening their culture and mission and, consequently, their hiring strategy. One European payments fintech, for example, has differentiated strategies based on the profile of open roles. An executive at the firm says it has been easier to recruit people for junior roles, since these workers are more eager to join a growing organization. “It is a different story with experienced profiles—for example, management team or 35-plus years—where recruiting is more difficult and retention is crucial,” he said. To attract such people, the firm offers stock options and other incentive packages. Meanwhile, an Africa-based payments and remittances fintech casts a more global net: “We hire globally, regardless of location, gender, or race,” an executive told us. “We have no quotas and try to just find the best person for each role.”

The fintech industry is undergoing a sea change, so players will have to evolve to survive. Approaches will vary, depending on each fintech’s maturity level and its vertical and geographic focus. The framework for sustainable growth, described in this report, provides a strong foundation:

• Measured growth based on a stable core. Ensure there is a strong and stable core business with a targeted and proven market fit before expanding, rather than trying to grow while strengthening the core.
• Programmatic M&A. Pursue M&A strategically and establish mutually beneficial partnerships based on a programmatic strategy rooted in value sharing (with incumbents and other fintechs), as opposed to pursuing M&A only as a response to a low-valuation environment.
• Cost discipline. Control costs to withstand the new funding environment while remaining flexible, nimble, and compliant.
• Keep the culture alive. Maintain the agility, innovation, and culture that have been the bedrock of disruption so far.

Decisions taken today will likely set the pace for fintechs over the mid to long term. The present conditions therefore call for a careful evaluation and focused implementation.

Lindsay Anan is an alumna of McKinsey’s San Francisco office, where Alexis Krivkovich and Marie-Claude Nadeau are senior partners; Diego Castellanos Isaza is a consultant in the London office, where Fernando Figueiredo is a partner and Tunde Olanrewaju is a senior partner; Max Flötotto is a senior partner in the Munich office; André Jerenz is a partner in the Hamburg office; and Zaccaria Orlando and Alessia Vassallo are associate partners in the Milan office.

The authors wish to thank Sonia Barquin, François Dorléans, Carolyne Gathinji, Eitan Gold, Carolina Gracia, Sheinal Jayantilal, Uzayr Jeenah, Yelda Kayik, Mayowa Kuyoro, Marina Mansur, Farid Minnikhanov, Bharath Sattanathan, Rinki Singhvi, and Katharine Watson for their contributions to this report.

This report was edited by Arshiya Khullar, an editor in the Gurugram office.

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